document TK-10166 live-arm verification

8f36d519f26859118e85a275fdc5d42a2ad80021 · 2026-08-31 11:48:29 -0700 · Steve Abrams
Files touched

A verification/e2e-proof.json
Diff

commit 8f36d519f26859118e85a275fdc5d42a2ad80021
Author: Steve Abrams <steve@designerwallcoverings.com>
Date:   Mon Aug 31 11:48:29 2026 -0700

    document TK-10166 live-arm verification
---
 verification/e2e-proof.json | 82 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
 1 file changed, 82 insertions(+)

diff --git a/verification/e2e-proof.json b/verification/e2e-proof.json
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+{
+  "intent": "Verify TK-10166 is live after Steve-authorized arming: Ken's real-order loop follows only qualified profitable faux-portfolio winner consensus while preserving caps and no-trade behavior when no tradeable consensus exists.",
+  "risk_tier": "R4",
+  "environment": "Local production process: pm2 ken on 127.0.0.1:7810; PostgreSQL databases ken and bertha_betting; Kalshi live API confirmer.",
+  "build_identity": {
+    "git_head_before_evidence_commit": "a030a58",
+    "pm2_process": "ken id=15 version=1.0.4 online",
+    "ticket": "TK-10166-ken-v2-signal-live-bets-follow-the-winni"
+  },
+  "timestamp": "2026-08-31T11:47:01-07:00",
+  "approval": {
+    "verdict": "PASS",
+    "evidence": "Archived approval memo records Steve approved the unblock in-session on 2026-08-31; arming occurred at 2026-08-31T18:21:53.455Z before this verification session performed any runtime checks."
+  },
+  "baseline": {
+    "verdict": "PASS",
+    "evidence": "Earlier ticket evidence showed live_run.active=false, trade_config.enabled=false, safe_mode=true, zero open real positions, and two settled historical real trades."
+  },
+  "commands_and_tools": [
+    "tk inbox; tk show; tk take",
+    "git status and git log",
+    "source inspection of server.js getWinnerConsensusSignals() and autoTrader()",
+    "launchctl list/print for follow-winners and safemode guard",
+    "pm2 describe/logs ken",
+    "read-only psql gate and real-trade queries",
+    "ken-gambling-canary/run.sh",
+    "GET http://127.0.0.1:7810/api/health"
+  ],
+  "assertions": [
+    {
+      "boundary": "code",
+      "verdict": "PASS",
+      "evidence": "autoTrader() hot-reloads trade_config.enabled, fail-closes on missing API keys and safe_mode, replaces upstream signals with getWinnerConsensusSignals(), and enforces live-run spend/expiry controls."
+    },
+    {
+      "boundary": "signal",
+      "verdict": "PASS",
+      "evidence": "Hourly read-only signal state was SIGNAL at 2026-08-31T11:26:13-07:00 with eight profitable portfolios and a unanimous BUY_YES direction."
+    },
+    {
+      "boundary": "configuration",
+      "verdict": "PASS",
+      "evidence": "Post-approval DB state: live_run.active=true, trade_config.enabled=true, safe_mode=false, trading_on=true; caps remain $2/position, $50 exposure, $4 daily loss, >=75% confidence, >=2 sources, and 5 open positions."
+    },
+    {
+      "boundary": "service",
+      "verdict": "PASS",
+      "evidence": "pm2 ken is online; /api/health returned status=ok, db_connected=true, kalshi_connected=true, env=prod, safe_mode=false, balance=5048 cents."
+    },
+    {
+      "boundary": "authorized safety guard",
+      "verdict": "PASS",
+      "evidence": "com.steve.ken-safemode-guard is running with a 25-second interval and holds the Steve-authorized trading_on=true/safe_mode=false state."
+    },
+    {
+      "boundary": "real-order ledger",
+      "verdict": "PASS",
+      "evidence": "Read-only canary at 2026-08-31T11:47:00-07:00 returned ARMED with db_open_trades=0, kalshi_live_open=0, and two settled historical trades."
+    },
+    {
+      "boundary": "negative/no-trade path",
+      "verdict": "PASS",
+      "evidence": "At 2026-08-31T11:42:57-07:00 the armed production loop logged 'no profitable-winner consensus right now — no real trades this cycle'; both DB and independent Kalshi checks remained at zero open positions."
+    },
+    {
+      "boundary": "real fill",
+      "verdict": "SKIP",
+      "reason": "No runtime-qualified tradeable winner consensus existed during verification. Creating a synthetic real-money order would be an unauthorized additional spend, not a valid test. This is not a critical-path skip because the approved outcome is armed autonomous operation with correct no-trade behavior until a qualifying market exists."
+    }
+  ],
+  "artifacts": [
+    "/Users/macstudio3/.claude/skills/ken-gambling-canary/data/latest.json",
+    "/Users/macstudio3/Projects/Ken/kalshi-dash/data/ftw/state.json",
+    "/Users/macstudio3/Projects/Ken/kalshi-dash/data/ftw/latest.txt",
+    "/Users/macstudio3/.claude/yolo-queue/pending-approval/_done/2026-08-31-TK-10166-ken-follow-winners-live-arm.md"
+  ],
+  "cleanup_or_rollback": {
+    "status": "No test state created; no cleanup required.",
+    "rollback": "Steve can flip the /trading switch OFF, which sets trading_on=false, safe_mode=true, and disables the trader; the guard holds the safe state."
+  },
+  "overall_verdict": "PASS"
+}
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