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Ranking integrity: verify top picks vs MLS + unverified-NOI penalty
0feadae1f279a6109ae3f7472f5607c76817bb13 · 2026-06-21 16:49:07 -0700 · Steve
- DTD verdict A (Claude+Codex 2/2): integrity over breadth/polish
- MLS-verify: Schoenborn 5.97% (NOI 83282), Amigo 5.63% (NOI 70270 — negative leverage exposed)
- finance.js: lower unknown-NOI base (45->38) + 0.88 confidence multiplier when cap null/unverified
- Viewer: cap-verified / broker-cap / no-income-data badge
- Result: verified deals (Canby, Schoenborn) now lead; unknown-NOI deals ranked down honestly
- Rename canby7304b_dup -> sherman21627
Files touched
M data/listings.jsonM data/qwen-cache.jsonM data/ranked.jsonM public/finance.jsM public/index.html
Diff
commit 0feadae1f279a6109ae3f7472f5607c76817bb13
Author: Steve <steve@designerwallcoverings.com>
Date: Sun Jun 21 16:49:07 2026 -0700
Ranking integrity: verify top picks vs MLS + unverified-NOI penalty
- DTD verdict A (Claude+Codex 2/2): integrity over breadth/polish
- MLS-verify: Schoenborn 5.97% (NOI 83282), Amigo 5.63% (NOI 70270 — negative leverage exposed)
- finance.js: lower unknown-NOI base (45->38) + 0.88 confidence multiplier when cap null/unverified
- Viewer: cap-verified / broker-cap / no-income-data badge
- Result: verified deals (Canby, Schoenborn) now lead; unknown-NOI deals ranked down honestly
- Rename canby7304b_dup -> sherman21627
---
data/listings.json | 6 +-
data/qwen-cache.json | 63 +++--
data/ranked.json | 769 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++-------------------------
public/finance.js | 5 +-
public/index.html | 5 +-
5 files changed, 441 insertions(+), 407 deletions(-)
diff --git a/data/listings.json b/data/listings.json
index 18eced9..dd479f2 100644
--- a/data/listings.json
+++ b/data/listings.json
@@ -15,14 +15,14 @@
{"id": "sepulveda8144", "address": "8144 Sepulveda Pl", "city": "Panorama City", "zip": "91402", "type": "Multifamily", "price": 1400000, "units": 6, "sqft": 5418, "cap_rate": 5.00, "year_built": 1952, "rent_control": "LA RSO (pre-1978) — assume rent controlled", "status": "Active", "upside_note": "All 2bd/1ba unit mix; tremendous upside; newer roof, copper plumbing, owned laundry", "source": "https://www.compass.com/homedetails/8144-Sepulveda-Pl-Panorama-City-CA-91402/1IJRNO_pid/"},
{"id": "canby7260", "address": "7260 Canby Ave", "city": "Reseda", "zip": "91335", "type": "Multifamily", "price": 1425000, "units": 6, "sqft": 5108, "cap_rate": 4.75, "year_built": 1954, "rent_control": "LAR2; pre-1978 likely RSO", "status": "Active", "upside_note": "RTI plans for 2 ADUs -> projected 7.08% cap, 7.60% pre-tax CoC post-ADU; $272/sf post-ADU; Walk Score 86 near CSUN", "source": "https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/7260-Canby-Ave-Reseda-CA/34975971/"},
{"id": "canby7304", "address": "7302-7304 Canby Ave", "city": "Reseda", "zip": "91335", "type": "Mixed-use", "price": 1250000, "units": 5, "sqft": 5048, "cap_rate": 5.96, "cap_rate_projected": 7.80, "noi_actual": 74497, "gross_actual": 112200, "expenses": 37703, "verified": true, "year_built": 1926, "rent_control": "C2 (LAC2) mixed commercial+residential", "status": "Active", "upside_note": "VERIFIED (MLS #26654413): actual in-place cap ~5.96% (NOI $74,497 on $112,200 gross, $37,703 exp) — the 7.8% headline is PROJECTED, achieved mainly by doubling the commercial unit $2,000->$4,000/mo + bumping the 3bd. SELLER FINANCING confirmed. Price CUT $1,399,000->$1,250,000 (motivated seller). Occupancy ambiguous (listing desc says 3 occupied vs MLS 0% vacancy — verify rent roll). C2 development optionality.", "source": "https://www.compass.com/homedetails/7304-Canby-Ave-Reseda-CA-91335/1IO7AS_pid/"},
- {"id": "schoenborn17920", "address": "17920 Schoenborn St", "city": "Northridge", "zip": "91325", "type": "Multifamily", "price": 1395000, "units": 6, "sqft": 4962, "cap_rate": null, "year_built": 1959, "rent_control": "LAR3; pre-1978 RSO", "status": "Active", "upside_note": "Cap not disclosed; live-in-one play near CSUN/Northridge Hospital; classic value-add", "source": "https://www.compass.com/homedetails/17920-Schoenborn-St-Northridge-CA-91325/1JVU5S_pid/"},
- {"id": "amigo8357", "address": "8357 Amigo Ave", "city": "Northridge", "zip": "91324", "type": "Multifamily", "price": 1249000, "units": 4, "sqft": 3816, "cap_rate": null, "year_built": 1960, "rent_control": "LAR3", "status": "Active", "upside_note": "Cap not disclosed; reduced from $1,350,000 (price cut signals motivated seller); quad near CSUN", "source": "https://www.compass.com/homedetails/8357-Amigo-Ave-Northridge-CA-91324/1IMLRO_pid/"},
+ {"id": "schoenborn17920", "address": "17920 Schoenborn St", "city": "Northridge", "zip": "91325", "type": "Multifamily", "price": 1395000, "units": 6, "sqft": 4962, "cap_rate": 5.97, "noi_actual": 83282, "gross_actual": 121394, "expenses": 38112, "verified": true, "year_built": 1959, "rent_control": "LAR3 / rent controlled (1959); pre-1978 RSO", "status": "Active", "upside_note": "VERIFIED (MLS): actual in-place 5.97% cap (NOI $83,282 on $121,394 gross, $38,112 exp); rent-controlled (LAR3, 1959) limits upside. Live-in-one play near CSUN/Northridge Hospital.", "source": "https://www.compass.com/homedetails/17920-Schoenborn-St-Northridge-CA-91325/1JVU5S_pid/"},
+ {"id": "amigo8357", "address": "8357 Amigo Ave", "city": "Northridge", "zip": "91324", "type": "Multifamily", "price": 1249000, "units": 4, "sqft": 3816, "cap_rate": 5.63, "noi_actual": 70270, "gross_actual": 89460, "expenses": 19190, "verified": true, "year_built": 1960, "rent_control": "LAR3", "status": "Active", "upside_note": "VERIFIED (MLS): honest in-place cap ~5.63% = gross $89,460 - exp $19,190 = NOI $70,270 (the MLS 'NOI $88,310' field ignores expenses — unreliable). Stated expenses $19,190 look LOW (verify taxes/insurance/mgmt in DD). Price cut $1,350,000->$1,249,000 (motivated). Quad near CSUN.", "source": "https://www.compass.com/homedetails/8357-Amigo-Ave-Northridge-CA-91324/1IMLRO_pid/"},
{"id": "wilbur9014", "address": "9014 Wilbur Ave", "city": "Northridge", "zip": "91324", "type": "Multifamily", "price": 1700000, "units": 4, "sqft": 3211, "cap_rate": null, "year_built": 1980, "rent_control": "Built 1980 -> NOT LA RSO; AB1482 only", "status": "Active", "upside_note": "Cap not disclosed; 1980 build = no LA rent control (higher increases); remodeled + new-construction units; adjacent 2-unit also available", "source": "https://www.compass.com/homedetails/9014-Wilbur-Ave-Northridge-CA-91324/1KTV77_pid/"},
{"id": "tilden8843", "address": "8843-8845 Tilden Ave", "city": "Panorama City", "zip": "91402", "type": "Multifamily", "price": 1050000, "units": 3, "sqft": 2076, "cap_rate": null, "year_built": 1948, "rent_control": "Pre-1978 -> LA RSO", "status": "Active", "upside_note": "Cap not disclosed; $350k/unit; individually metered; owner-user/house-hack friendly", "source": "https://www.coldwellbankerhomes.com/ca/panorama-city/8843-tilden/pid_69954470/"},
{"id": "tilden8837", "address": "8837 Tilden Ave", "city": "Panorama City", "zip": "91402", "type": "Multifamily", "price": 899000, "units": 2, "sqft": 1794, "cap_rate": 5.30, "year_built": 1948, "rent_control": "Pre-1978 -> LA RSO", "status": "Active", "upside_note": "Duplex; small entry point; on market 51 days", "source": "https://www.compass.com/homedetails/8837-Tilden-Ave-Panorama-City-CA-91402/1JQEEP_pid/"},
{"id": "sanfernando10004", "address": "10004 San Fernando Rd", "city": "Pacoima", "zip": "91331", "type": "Mixed-use", "price": 1100000, "units": 3, "sqft": 2270, "cap_rate": null, "year_built": 1933, "rent_control": "Zoned LAC2 (residential/commercial)", "status": "Active", "upside_note": "Cap not disclosed; triplex on commercial-zoned lot, 9,155sf land; SOLD AS-IS (condition risk); redevelopment optionality", "source": "https://www.compass.com/homedetails/10004-San-Fernando-Rd-Pacoima-CA-91331/1J7S8M_pid/"},
{"id": "vannuys12872", "address": "12872 Van Nuys Blvd", "city": "Pacoima", "zip": "91331", "type": "Multifamily", "price": 949900, "units": 3, "sqft": 2084, "cap_rate": null, "year_built": 1948, "rent_control": "Pre-1978 -> LA RSO", "status": "Active (one source showed Pending — VERIFY)", "upside_note": "Cap not disclosed; renovated triplex, new roof/windows/plumbing; STATUS UNCERTAIN", "source": "https://www.compass.com/homedetails/12872-Van-Nuys-Blvd-Pacoima-CA-91331/1L7DX2_pid/"},
- {"id": "canby7304b_dup", "address": "21627 Sherman Way", "city": "Canoga Park", "zip": "91303", "type": "Retail", "price": 899998, "units": 1, "sqft": 1500, "cap_rate": null, "year_built": 1941, "rent_control": "Commercial — n/a", "status": "Active", "upside_note": "Owner-user retail storefront in Canoga Park Parts District; Opportunity Zone + JEDI Zone incentives; SBA 504 ~10% down; new roof/HVAC 2022. No income in place (owner-user).", "source": "https://www.coldwellbankerhomes.com/ca/canoga-park/21627-sherman-way/pid_69748281/"},
+ {"id": "sherman21627", "address": "21627 Sherman Way", "city": "Canoga Park", "zip": "91303", "type": "Retail", "price": 899998, "units": 1, "sqft": 1500, "cap_rate": null, "verified": false, "year_built": 1941, "rent_control": "Commercial — n/a", "status": "Active", "upside_note": "NO in-place income (owner-user barber shop, ~vacant) — return is unverifiable; ranks low by design. Canoga Park Parts District; Opportunity Zone + JEDI Zone incentives; SBA 504 ~10% down; new roof/HVAC 2022. Price cut $998,800->$948,800->$899,998 (motivated).", "source": "https://www.coldwellbankerhomes.com/ca/canoga-park/21627-sherman-way/pid_69748281/"},
{"id": "owensmouth7129", "address": "7129-7131 1/2 Owensmouth Ave", "city": "Canoga Park", "zip": "91303", "type": "Retail", "price": 1050000, "units": 1, "sqft": 1482, "cap_rate": null, "year_built": 1970, "rent_control": "Commercial — n/a", "status": "Active", "upside_note": "Cap not disclosed; small freestanding retail near Warner Center", "source": "https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/7129-7131-1-2-Owensmouth-Ave-Canoga-Park-CA/35430257/"},
{"id": "comercio5301", "address": "5301 Comercio Lane", "city": "Woodland Hills", "zip": "91364", "type": "Mixed-use", "price": 814250, "units": 4, "sqft": 3473, "cap_rate": null, "year_built": 1956, "rent_control": "LAC4 (office/retail mixed)", "status": "Pending (probate/court-confirmation)", "upside_note": "Cap not disclosed; probate trust sale, court-confirmation required (slow/uncertain close); LAC4 flexible use near Ventura Blvd; lowest entry price", "source": "https://www.nuevo-realestate.com/real-estate/5301-comercio-lane-woodland-hills-ca-91364/25577103/183735124"},
{"id": "vanowen15840", "address": "15840 Vanowen St", "city": "Lake Balboa", "zip": "91406", "type": "Multifamily", "price": 970000, "units": 5, "sqft": 3349, "cap_rate": 5.25, "year_built": 1952, "rent_control": "Pre-1978 -> LA RSO", "status": "Under Contract", "upside_note": "5 units, new roof 2022, copper plumbing, tremendous upside — BUT already in escrow (likely unavailable)", "source": "https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/15840-Vanowen-St-Lake-Balboa-CA/35415601/"},
diff --git a/data/qwen-cache.json b/data/qwen-cache.json
index 1849dab..c3131a0 100644
--- a/data/qwen-cache.json
+++ b/data/qwen-cache.json
@@ -76,42 +76,42 @@
"qwenScore": 72
},
"schoenborn17920": {
- "key": "2b8ddd604cde",
+ "key": "4405b28db0a4",
"qwen": {
- "thesis": "This 6-unit multifamily property in Northridge offers a value-add opportunity with strong location near CSUN and Northridge Hospital, and potential for rent growth due to rent control exemptions. With a $400k budget, the buyer can secure a leveraged position in a desirable area with room for operational improvements.",
+ "thesis": "This rent-controlled multifamily property in Northridge offers a stable cash-on-cash return with a verified 5.97% cap rate, making it an attractive option for a leveraged buyer with a $400k budget. The location near CSUN and Northridge Hospital provides long-term demand, and the low down payment requirement allows for immediate entry into the market.",
"risks": [
- "Rent control restrictions may limit upside potential",
- "Age of the property (1959) may require significant capital expenditures",
- "NOI and cap rate are unknown, increasing uncertainty in valuation"
+ "Rent control limits long-term upside and tenant turnover potential",
+ "Age of the building (1959) may lead to higher maintenance and repair costs",
+ "Low DSCR (1.02) indicates limited financial cushion against income fluctuations"
],
"upside": [
- "Location proximity to major institutions increases long-term value",
- "Potential for rent increases under LAR3 and RSO exemptions",
- "Classic value-add opportunity with room for renovations and management improvements"
+ "Strong location with proximity to educational and healthcare institutions",
+ "Verified NOI and cap rate provide a clear baseline for returns",
+ "Potential for value-add through unit improvements or tenant retention strategies"
],
- "opportunity_score": 72,
- "recommendation": "Buy"
+ "opportunity_score": 65,
+ "recommendation": "Watch"
},
- "qwenScore": 72
+ "qwenScore": 65
},
"amigo8357": {
- "key": "d01b2635a2ca",
+ "key": "026de934c4c2",
"qwen": {
- "thesis": "This multifamily property in Northridge offers a leveraged opportunity with a motivated seller and a prime location near CSUN, suggesting potential for rental income growth and value appreciation. The 25% down payment aligns with the investor's $400k budget, allowing for a purchase with room for closing costs and reserves.",
+ "thesis": "This 4-unit multifamily property in Northridge offers an attractive entry point for a leveraged buyer with a $400k budget, given its verified cap rate of 5.63% and proximity to CSUN, which supports long-term rental demand. The price reduction and low down payment requirement make it a compelling opportunity for value-add strategies.",
"risks": [
- "LAR3 rent control may limit rental income growth potential",
- "Age of the property (1960) may indicate higher maintenance costs",
- "Cap rate is not disclosed, making it difficult to assess current returns"
+ "Low cash-on-cash return (-0.75%) indicates poor initial returns",
+ "Potential underestimation of expenses (taxes, insurance, management) may impact NOI",
+ "LAR3 rent control may limit rental growth potential"
],
"upside": [
- "Proximity to CSUN increases demand for rental units",
- "Price reduction indicates seller motivation, potentially leading to a favorable purchase price",
- "Potential for value-add through renovations or improved management"
+ "Proximity to CSUN provides stable and growing tenant base",
+ "Price reduction suggests seller motivation and potential for negotiation",
+ "Value-add opportunities through unit upgrades or management improvements"
],
- "opportunity_score": 72,
- "recommendation": "Buy"
+ "opportunity_score": 65,
+ "recommendation": "Watch"
},
- "qwenScore": 72
+ "qwenScore": 65
},
"wilbur9014": {
"key": "ef795442d4fb",
@@ -359,5 +359,24 @@
"recommendation": "Watch"
},
"qwenScore": 55
+ },
+ "sherman21627": {
+ "key": "028f327636fd",
+ "qwen": {
+ "thesis": "This property presents a motivated seller opportunity in a high-growth area with access to multiple incentives, including Opportunity Zone and JEDI Zone benefits. With a low down payment requirement and recent upgrades (roof/HVAC), it offers potential for value-add through repositioning in the Canoga Park Parts District.",
+ "risks": [
+ "No in-place income makes future cash flow projections speculative",
+ "Vacant and owner-user history may indicate poor tenant retention or management",
+ "Uncertain market absorption in a competitive retail sector"
+ ],
+ "upside": [
+ "Opportunity Zone and JEDI Zone incentives may reduce tax liability and increase eligibility for grants",
+ "Recent capital improvements (roof/HVAC) enhance long-term value and tenant appeal",
+ "Potential for repositioning as a high-traffic retail or service location in a growing district"
+ ],
+ "opportunity_score": 65,
+ "recommendation": "Watch"
+ },
+ "qwenScore": 65
}
}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/ranked.json b/data/ranked.json
index bc28f1e..5457474 100644
--- a/data/ranked.json
+++ b/data/ranked.json
@@ -24,149 +24,110 @@
"generated": "2026-06-21",
"ranked": [
{
- "id": "schoenborn17920",
- "address": "17920 Schoenborn St",
- "city": "Northridge",
- "zip": "91325",
- "type": "Multifamily",
- "price": 1395000,
- "units": 6,
- "sqft": 4962,
- "cap_rate": null,
- "year_built": 1959,
- "rent_control": "LAR3; pre-1978 RSO",
+ "id": "canby7304",
+ "address": "7302-7304 Canby Ave",
+ "city": "Reseda",
+ "zip": "91335",
+ "type": "Mixed-use",
+ "price": 1250000,
+ "units": 5,
+ "sqft": 5048,
+ "cap_rate": 5.96,
+ "cap_rate_projected": 7.8,
+ "noi_actual": 74497,
+ "gross_actual": 112200,
+ "expenses": 37703,
+ "verified": true,
+ "year_built": 1926,
+ "rent_control": "C2 (LAC2) mixed commercial+residential",
"status": "Active",
- "upside_note": "Cap not disclosed; live-in-one play near CSUN/Northridge Hospital; classic value-add",
- "source": "https://www.compass.com/homedetails/17920-Schoenborn-St-Northridge-CA-91325/1JVU5S_pid/",
+ "upside_note": "VERIFIED (MLS #26654413): actual in-place cap ~5.96% (NOI $74,497 on $112,200 gross, $37,703 exp) — the 7.8% headline is PROJECTED, achieved mainly by doubling the commercial unit $2,000->$4,000/mo + bumping the 3bd. SELLER FINANCING confirmed. Price CUT $1,399,000->$1,250,000 (motivated seller). Occupancy ambiguous (listing desc says 3 occupied vs MLS 0% vacancy — verify rent roll). C2 development optionality.",
+ "source": "https://www.compass.com/homedetails/7304-Canby-Ave-Reseda-CA-91335/1IO7AS_pid/",
"finance": {
- "down": 348750,
- "closing": 34875,
- "cashNeeded": 383625,
- "loan": 1046250,
- "annualDebtService": 81431,
- "noi": null,
- "cashFlow": null,
- "coc": null,
- "dscr": null,
+ "down": 312500,
+ "closing": 31250,
+ "cashNeeded": 343750,
+ "loan": 937500,
+ "annualDebtService": 72967,
+ "noi": 74500,
+ "cashFlow": 1533,
+ "coc": 0.45,
+ "dscr": 1.02,
"affordable": true
},
- "financeScore": 45,
- "financeConf": "low",
+ "financeScore": 35,
+ "financeConf": "high",
"qwen": {
- "thesis": "This 6-unit multifamily property in Northridge offers a value-add opportunity with strong location near CSUN and Northridge Hospital, and potential for rent growth due to rent control exemptions. With a $400k budget, the buyer can secure a leveraged position in a desirable area with room for operational improvements.",
+ "thesis": "This mixed-use property in Reseda offers a value-add opportunity with a verified in-place cap rate of 5.96% and potential to increase to 7.8% through rent increases and commercial unit optimization. The motivated seller, seller financing, and development optionality under C2 zoning make it an attractive leveraged play for a $400k-down buyer.",
"risks": [
- "Rent control restrictions may limit upside potential",
- "Age of the property (1959) may require significant capital expenditures",
- "NOI and cap rate are unknown, increasing uncertainty in valuation"
+ "Occupancy status is unclear and needs verification",
+ "Rent control restrictions may limit rent increases",
+ "Value-add projections depend on successful execution of tenant improvements and re-leasing"
],
"upside": [
- "Location proximity to major institutions increases long-term value",
- "Potential for rent increases under LAR3 and RSO exemptions",
- "Classic value-add opportunity with room for renovations and management improvements"
+ "Significant NOI growth potential through rent increases and commercial unit optimization",
+ "Seller financing reduces upfront cash needs",
+ "C2 zoning allows for future development or repositioning"
],
"opportunity_score": 72,
"recommendation": "Buy"
},
"qwenScore": 72,
- "composite": 61,
+ "composite": 52,
"rank": 1
},
{
- "id": "amigo8357",
- "address": "8357 Amigo Ave",
+ "id": "schoenborn17920",
+ "address": "17920 Schoenborn St",
"city": "Northridge",
- "zip": "91324",
+ "zip": "91325",
"type": "Multifamily",
- "price": 1249000,
- "units": 4,
- "sqft": 3816,
- "cap_rate": null,
- "year_built": 1960,
- "rent_control": "LAR3",
+ "price": 1395000,
+ "units": 6,
+ "sqft": 4962,
+ "cap_rate": 5.97,
+ "noi_actual": 83282,
+ "gross_actual": 121394,
+ "expenses": 38112,
+ "verified": true,
+ "year_built": 1959,
+ "rent_control": "LAR3 / rent controlled (1959); pre-1978 RSO",
"status": "Active",
- "upside_note": "Cap not disclosed; reduced from $1,350,000 (price cut signals motivated seller); quad near CSUN",
- "source": "https://www.compass.com/homedetails/8357-Amigo-Ave-Northridge-CA-91324/1IMLRO_pid/",
+ "upside_note": "VERIFIED (MLS): actual in-place 5.97% cap (NOI $83,282 on $121,394 gross, $38,112 exp); rent-controlled (LAR3, 1959) limits upside. Live-in-one play near CSUN/Northridge Hospital.",
+ "source": "https://www.compass.com/homedetails/17920-Schoenborn-St-Northridge-CA-91325/1JVU5S_pid/",
"finance": {
- "down": 312250,
- "closing": 31225,
- "cashNeeded": 343475,
- "loan": 936750,
- "annualDebtService": 72909,
- "noi": null,
- "cashFlow": null,
- "coc": null,
- "dscr": null,
+ "down": 348750,
+ "closing": 34875,
+ "cashNeeded": 383625,
+ "loan": 1046250,
+ "annualDebtService": 81431,
+ "noi": 83282,
+ "cashFlow": 1851,
+ "coc": 0.48,
+ "dscr": 1.02,
"affordable": true
},
- "financeScore": 45,
- "financeConf": "low",
+ "financeScore": 35,
+ "financeConf": "high",
"qwen": {
- "thesis": "This multifamily property in Northridge offers a leveraged opportunity with a motivated seller and a prime location near CSUN, suggesting potential for rental income growth and value appreciation. The 25% down payment aligns with the investor's $400k budget, allowing for a purchase with room for closing costs and reserves.",
+ "thesis": "This rent-controlled multifamily property in Northridge offers a stable cash-on-cash return with a verified 5.97% cap rate, making it an attractive option for a leveraged buyer with a $400k budget. The location near CSUN and Northridge Hospital provides long-term demand, and the low down payment requirement allows for immediate entry into the market.",
"risks": [
- "LAR3 rent control may limit rental income growth potential",
- "Age of the property (1960) may indicate higher maintenance costs",
- "Cap rate is not disclosed, making it difficult to assess current returns"
+ "Rent control limits long-term upside and tenant turnover potential",
+ "Age of the building (1959) may lead to higher maintenance and repair costs",
+ "Low DSCR (1.02) indicates limited financial cushion against income fluctuations"
],
"upside": [
- "Proximity to CSUN increases demand for rental units",
- "Price reduction indicates seller motivation, potentially leading to a favorable purchase price",
- "Potential for value-add through renovations or improved management"
+ "Strong location with proximity to educational and healthcare institutions",
+ "Verified NOI and cap rate provide a clear baseline for returns",
+ "Potential for value-add through unit improvements or tenant retention strategies"
],
- "opportunity_score": 72,
- "recommendation": "Buy"
+ "opportunity_score": 65,
+ "recommendation": "Watch"
},
- "qwenScore": 72,
- "composite": 61,
+ "qwenScore": 65,
+ "composite": 49,
"rank": 2
},
- {
- "id": "canby7304b_dup",
- "address": "21627 Sherman Way",
- "city": "Canoga Park",
- "zip": "91303",
- "type": "Retail",
- "price": 899998,
- "units": 1,
- "sqft": 1500,
- "cap_rate": null,
- "year_built": 1941,
- "rent_control": "Commercial — n/a",
- "status": "Active",
- "upside_note": "Owner-user retail storefront in Canoga Park Parts District; Opportunity Zone + JEDI Zone incentives; SBA 504 ~10% down; new roof/HVAC 2022. No income in place (owner-user).",
- "source": "https://www.coldwellbankerhomes.com/ca/canoga-park/21627-sherman-way/pid_69748281/",
- "finance": {
- "down": 225000,
- "closing": 22500,
- "cashNeeded": 247499,
- "loan": 674999,
- "annualDebtService": 52536,
- "noi": null,
- "cashFlow": null,
- "coc": null,
- "dscr": null,
- "affordable": true
- },
- "financeScore": 45,
- "financeConf": "low",
- "qwen": {
- "thesis": "This retail property in Canoga Park offers a unique opportunity for a leveraged buyer with $400k available for down payment and closing costs. Located in a revitalizing area with Opportunity Zone and JEDI Zone incentives, the property benefits from potential tax advantages and future growth. With recent improvements (new roof and HVAC) and a prime location in the Parts District, the asset is well-positioned for value-add strategies such as retenanting or repositioning.",
- "risks": [
- "No current income in place increases uncertainty around future cash flow potential",
- "Vacant retail properties in competitive markets may face challenges in attracting quality tenants",
- "Age of the building (1941) may imply higher maintenance costs or outdated infrastructure"
- ],
- "upside": [
- "Opportunity Zone and JEDI Zone incentives may provide tax benefits and attract development interest",
- "Potential for retenanting at higher rates or repositioning the space for a more profitable use",
- "SBA 504 financing option offers favorable terms with ~10% down, reducing capital requirements"
- ],
- "opportunity_score": 72,
- "recommendation": "Buy"
- },
- "qwenScore": 72,
- "composite": 61,
- "rank": 3
- },
{
"id": "tilden8843",
"address": "8843-8845 Tilden Ave",
@@ -194,7 +155,7 @@
"dscr": null,
"affordable": true
},
- "financeScore": 45,
+ "financeScore": 38,
"financeConf": "low",
"qwen": {
"thesis": "This multifamily property in Panorama City offers a leveraged opportunity for a buyer with a $400k budget, allowing for a 25% down payment and potential owner-user or house-hack strategy. The individually metered units and pre-1978 rent control status may provide long-term stability and income potential in a growing market.",
@@ -212,8 +173,8 @@
"recommendation": "Watch"
},
"qwenScore": 65,
- "composite": 57,
- "rank": 4
+ "composite": 48,
+ "rank": 3
},
{
"id": "sanfernando10004",
@@ -242,7 +203,7 @@
"dscr": null,
"affordable": true
},
- "financeScore": 45,
+ "financeScore": 38,
"financeConf": "low",
"qwen": {
"thesis": "This triplex on a large commercial-zoned lot in Pacoima offers value-add potential through redevelopment or rent growth, with a low down payment requirement and a budget-friendly entry point for a leveraged buyer. The property's size, land value, and zoning flexibility create opportunities for long-term appreciation and income diversification.",
@@ -260,7 +221,56 @@
"recommendation": "Watch"
},
"qwenScore": 65,
- "composite": 57,
+ "composite": 48,
+ "rank": 4
+ },
+ {
+ "id": "sherman21627",
+ "address": "21627 Sherman Way",
+ "city": "Canoga Park",
+ "zip": "91303",
+ "type": "Retail",
+ "price": 899998,
+ "units": 1,
+ "sqft": 1500,
+ "cap_rate": null,
+ "verified": false,
+ "year_built": 1941,
+ "rent_control": "Commercial — n/a",
+ "status": "Active",
+ "upside_note": "NO in-place income (owner-user barber shop, ~vacant) — return is unverifiable; ranks low by design. Canoga Park Parts District; Opportunity Zone + JEDI Zone incentives; SBA 504 ~10% down; new roof/HVAC 2022. Price cut $998,800->$948,800->$899,998 (motivated).",
+ "source": "https://www.coldwellbankerhomes.com/ca/canoga-park/21627-sherman-way/pid_69748281/",
+ "finance": {
+ "down": 225000,
+ "closing": 22500,
+ "cashNeeded": 247499,
+ "loan": 674999,
+ "annualDebtService": 52536,
+ "noi": null,
+ "cashFlow": null,
+ "coc": null,
+ "dscr": null,
+ "affordable": true
+ },
+ "financeScore": 38,
+ "financeConf": "low",
+ "qwen": {
+ "thesis": "This property presents a motivated seller opportunity in a high-growth area with access to multiple incentives, including Opportunity Zone and JEDI Zone benefits. With a low down payment requirement and recent upgrades (roof/HVAC), it offers potential for value-add through repositioning in the Canoga Park Parts District.",
+ "risks": [
+ "No in-place income makes future cash flow projections speculative",
+ "Vacant and owner-user history may indicate poor tenant retention or management",
+ "Uncertain market absorption in a competitive retail sector"
+ ],
+ "upside": [
+ "Opportunity Zone and JEDI Zone incentives may reduce tax liability and increase eligibility for grants",
+ "Recent capital improvements (roof/HVAC) enhance long-term value and tenant appeal",
+ "Potential for repositioning as a high-traffic retail or service location in a growing district"
+ ],
+ "opportunity_score": 65,
+ "recommendation": "Watch"
+ },
+ "qwenScore": 65,
+ "composite": 48,
"rank": 5
},
{
@@ -290,7 +300,7 @@
"dscr": null,
"affordable": true
},
- "financeScore": 45,
+ "financeScore": 38,
"financeConf": "low",
"qwen": {
"thesis": "This freestanding retail property in Canoga Park offers an opportunity to acquire a small, income-producing asset near the Warner Center, a high-traffic area. With a $400k budget covering down payment and closing costs, the investor can leverage the remaining funds to secure a position in a growing retail market with potential for rent growth and value appreciation.",
@@ -308,110 +318,9 @@
"recommendation": "Watch"
},
"qwenScore": 65,
- "composite": 57,
+ "composite": 48,
"rank": 6
},
- {
- "id": "canby7304",
- "address": "7302-7304 Canby Ave",
- "city": "Reseda",
- "zip": "91335",
- "type": "Mixed-use",
- "price": 1250000,
- "units": 5,
- "sqft": 5048,
- "cap_rate": 5.96,
- "cap_rate_projected": 7.8,
- "noi_actual": 74497,
- "gross_actual": 112200,
- "expenses": 37703,
- "verified": true,
- "year_built": 1926,
- "rent_control": "C2 (LAC2) mixed commercial+residential",
- "status": "Active",
- "upside_note": "VERIFIED (MLS #26654413): actual in-place cap ~5.96% (NOI $74,497 on $112,200 gross, $37,703 exp) — the 7.8% headline is PROJECTED, achieved mainly by doubling the commercial unit $2,000->$4,000/mo + bumping the 3bd. SELLER FINANCING confirmed. Price CUT $1,399,000->$1,250,000 (motivated seller). Occupancy ambiguous (listing desc says 3 occupied vs MLS 0% vacancy — verify rent roll). C2 development optionality.",
- "source": "https://www.compass.com/homedetails/7304-Canby-Ave-Reseda-CA-91335/1IO7AS_pid/",
- "finance": {
- "down": 312500,
- "closing": 31250,
- "cashNeeded": 343750,
- "loan": 937500,
- "annualDebtService": 72967,
- "noi": 74500,
- "cashFlow": 1533,
- "coc": 0.45,
- "dscr": 1.02,
- "affordable": true
- },
- "financeScore": 35,
- "financeConf": "high",
- "qwen": {
- "thesis": "This mixed-use property in Reseda offers a value-add opportunity with a verified in-place cap rate of 5.96% and potential to increase to 7.8% through rent increases and commercial unit optimization. The motivated seller, seller financing, and development optionality under C2 zoning make it an attractive leveraged play for a $400k-down buyer.",
- "risks": [
- "Occupancy status is unclear and needs verification",
- "Rent control restrictions may limit rent increases",
- "Value-add projections depend on successful execution of tenant improvements and re-leasing"
- ],
- "upside": [
- "Significant NOI growth potential through rent increases and commercial unit optimization",
- "Seller financing reduces upfront cash needs",
- "C2 zoning allows for future development or repositioning"
- ],
- "opportunity_score": 72,
- "recommendation": "Buy"
- },
- "qwenScore": 72,
- "composite": 52,
- "rank": 7
- },
- {
- "id": "wilbur9014",
- "address": "9014 Wilbur Ave",
- "city": "Northridge",
- "zip": "91324",
- "type": "Multifamily",
- "price": 1700000,
- "units": 4,
- "sqft": 3211,
- "cap_rate": null,
- "year_built": 1980,
- "rent_control": "Built 1980 -> NOT LA RSO; AB1482 only",
- "status": "Active",
- "upside_note": "Cap not disclosed; 1980 build = no LA rent control (higher increases); remodeled + new-construction units; adjacent 2-unit also available",
- "source": "https://www.compass.com/homedetails/9014-Wilbur-Ave-Northridge-CA-91324/1KTV77_pid/",
- "finance": {
- "down": 425000,
- "closing": 42500,
- "cashNeeded": 467500,
- "loan": 1275000,
- "annualDebtService": 99236,
- "noi": null,
- "cashFlow": null,
- "coc": null,
- "dscr": null,
- "affordable": false
- },
- "financeScore": 27,
- "financeConf": "low",
- "qwen": {
- "thesis": "This 4-unit multifamily property in Northridge offers an opportunity to purchase a remodeled and upgraded asset in a desirable area with no rent control restrictions, allowing for higher rental income potential. While the asking price exceeds the $400k budget for a 25% down purchase, the adjacent 2-unit property may provide a bundled acquisition opportunity that could enhance overall returns.",
- "risks": [
- "Insufficient down payment for a 25% LTV purchase without additional financing or budget adjustments",
- "No disclosed cap rate limits ability to estimate returns and compare to market benchmarks",
- "Adjacent 2-unit property availability may complicate due diligence and increase complexity of the deal"
- ],
- "upside": [
- "No rent control in Northridge (built 1980) allows for higher rent increases and greater NOI potential",
- "Remodeled and new-construction units may contribute to higher occupancy and rental rates",
- "Potential for bundled acquisition with adjacent 2-unit property may offer scale and diversification"
- ],
- "opportunity_score": 65,
- "recommendation": "Watch"
- },
- "qwenScore": 65,
- "composite": 43,
- "rank": 8
- },
{
"id": "correnti12600",
"address": "12600 Correnti St",
@@ -458,151 +367,155 @@
},
"qwenScore": 65,
"composite": 38,
- "rank": 9
- },
- {
- "id": "burbank10701",
- "address": "10701 Burbank Blvd",
- "city": "North Hollywood",
- "zip": "91601",
- "type": "Retail/NNN",
- "price": 2799000,
- "units": 1,
- "sqft": 1802,
- "cap_rate": 7.3,
- "year_built": 1951,
- "rent_control": "Commercial NNN — n/a",
- "status": "Active (OUT OF BUDGET — context)",
- "upside_note": "Single-tenant NNN cannabis dispensary, $204k NOI, 10-yr lease 2% bumps, fully passive. High cap but cannabis-tenant risk + needs ~$700k down.",
- "source": "https://www.jayrubin-re.com/file/view-file/580",
- "finance": {
- "down": 699750,
- "closing": 69975,
- "cashNeeded": 769725,
- "loan": 2099250,
- "annualDebtService": 163388,
- "noi": 204327,
- "cashFlow": 40939,
- "coc": 5.32,
- "dscr": 1.25,
- "affordable": false
- },
- "financeScore": 24,
- "financeConf": "high",
- "qwen": {
- "thesis": "This single-tenant NNN cannabis dispensary offers a high cap rate of 7.3% with a 10-year lease and 2% annual rent bumps, providing stable cash flow and long-term income potential. However, the required down payment exceeds the $400k budget, limiting leverage and cash-on-cash return.",
- "risks": [
- "Cannabis industry regulatory and legal risks",
- "Tenant-specific risk due to single-tenant exposure",
- "Down payment shortfall may require additional financing or reduce leverage"
- ],
- "upside": [
- "Attractive cap rate and long-term lease with rent bumps",
- "Fully passive management with NNN structure",
- "Potential for appreciation in a growing retail market"
- ],
- "opportunity_score": 55,
- "recommendation": "Watch"
- },
- "qwenScore": 55,
- "composite": 32,
- "rank": 10
+ "rank": 7
},
{
- "id": "vannuys12872",
- "address": "12872 Van Nuys Blvd",
- "city": "Pacoima",
- "zip": "91331",
+ "id": "amigo8357",
+ "address": "8357 Amigo Ave",
+ "city": "Northridge",
+ "zip": "91324",
"type": "Multifamily",
- "price": 949900,
- "units": 3,
- "sqft": 2084,
- "cap_rate": null,
- "year_built": 1948,
- "rent_control": "Pre-1978 -> LA RSO",
- "status": "Active (one source showed Pending — VERIFY)",
- "upside_note": "Cap not disclosed; renovated triplex, new roof/windows/plumbing; STATUS UNCERTAIN",
- "source": "https://www.compass.com/homedetails/12872-Van-Nuys-Blvd-Pacoima-CA-91331/1L7DX2_pid/",
+ "price": 1249000,
+ "units": 4,
+ "sqft": 3816,
+ "cap_rate": 5.63,
+ "noi_actual": 70270,
+ "gross_actual": 89460,
+ "expenses": 19190,
+ "verified": true,
+ "year_built": 1960,
+ "rent_control": "LAR3",
+ "status": "Active",
+ "upside_note": "VERIFIED (MLS): honest in-place cap ~5.63% = gross $89,460 - exp $19,190 = NOI $70,270 (the MLS 'NOI $88,310' field ignores expenses — unreliable). Stated expenses $19,190 look LOW (verify taxes/insurance/mgmt in DD). Price cut $1,350,000->$1,249,000 (motivated). Quad near CSUN.",
+ "source": "https://www.compass.com/homedetails/8357-Amigo-Ave-Northridge-CA-91324/1IMLRO_pid/",
"finance": {
- "down": 237475,
- "closing": 23748,
- "cashNeeded": 261223,
- "loan": 712425,
- "annualDebtService": 55449,
- "noi": null,
- "cashFlow": null,
- "coc": null,
- "dscr": null,
+ "down": 312250,
+ "closing": 31225,
+ "cashNeeded": 343475,
+ "loan": 936750,
+ "annualDebtService": 72909,
+ "noi": 70319,
+ "cashFlow": -2590,
+ "coc": -0.75,
+ "dscr": 0.96,
"affordable": true
},
- "financeScore": 20,
- "financeConf": "low",
+ "financeScore": 13,
+ "financeConf": "high",
"qwen": {
- "thesis": "This renovated triplex in Pacoima offers a leveraged opportunity for a buyer with $400k available for down payment and closing costs. With a 25% down payment, the cash needed is within budget, and the property's recent upgrades (roof, windows, plumbing) may support competitive rental rates in a rent-controlled market.",
+ "thesis": "This 4-unit multifamily property in Northridge offers an attractive entry point for a leveraged buyer with a $400k budget, given its verified cap rate of 5.63% and proximity to CSUN, which supports long-term rental demand. The price reduction and low down payment requirement make it a compelling opportunity for value-add strategies.",
"risks": [
- "Uncertain property status (active vs. pending) could affect transaction timing and terms",
- "Rent control under LA RSO may limit rental income growth potential",
- "Age of the building (1948) may imply hidden maintenance or compliance costs"
+ "Low cash-on-cash return (-0.75%) indicates poor initial returns",
+ "Potential underestimation of expenses (taxes, insurance, management) may impact NOI",
+ "LAR3 rent control may limit rental growth potential"
],
"upside": [
- "Recent renovations may allow for higher occupancy and rental rates",
- "Strategic location in Pacoima may benefit from area revitalization",
- "Leverage available with 25% down payment to maximize returns"
+ "Proximity to CSUN provides stable and growing tenant base",
+ "Price reduction suggests seller motivation and potential for negotiation",
+ "Value-add opportunities through unit upgrades or management improvements"
],
"opportunity_score": 65,
"recommendation": "Watch"
},
"qwenScore": 65,
- "composite": 31,
- "rank": 11
+ "composite": 36,
+ "rank": 8
},
{
- "id": "comercio5301",
- "address": "5301 Comercio Lane",
- "city": "Woodland Hills",
- "zip": "91364",
- "type": "Mixed-use",
- "price": 814250,
+ "id": "wilbur9014",
+ "address": "9014 Wilbur Ave",
+ "city": "Northridge",
+ "zip": "91324",
+ "type": "Multifamily",
+ "price": 1700000,
"units": 4,
- "sqft": 3473,
+ "sqft": 3211,
"cap_rate": null,
- "year_built": 1956,
- "rent_control": "LAC4 (office/retail mixed)",
- "status": "Pending (probate/court-confirmation)",
- "upside_note": "Cap not disclosed; probate trust sale, court-confirmation required (slow/uncertain close); LAC4 flexible use near Ventura Blvd; lowest entry price",
- "source": "https://www.nuevo-realestate.com/real-estate/5301-comercio-lane-woodland-hills-ca-91364/25577103/183735124",
+ "year_built": 1980,
+ "rent_control": "Built 1980 -> NOT LA RSO; AB1482 only",
+ "status": "Active",
+ "upside_note": "Cap not disclosed; 1980 build = no LA rent control (higher increases); remodeled + new-construction units; adjacent 2-unit also available",
+ "source": "https://www.compass.com/homedetails/9014-Wilbur-Ave-Northridge-CA-91324/1KTV77_pid/",
"finance": {
- "down": 203563,
- "closing": 20356,
- "cashNeeded": 223919,
- "loan": 610688,
- "annualDebtService": 47531,
+ "down": 425000,
+ "closing": 42500,
+ "cashNeeded": 467500,
+ "loan": 1275000,
+ "annualDebtService": 99236,
"noi": null,
"cashFlow": null,
"coc": null,
"dscr": null,
- "affordable": true
+ "affordable": false
},
"financeScore": 20,
"financeConf": "low",
"qwen": {
- "thesis": "This mixed-use property in Woodland Hills offers a unique opportunity for a leveraged buyer with $400k available for down and closing, given its low entry price relative to comparable assets in the area. Its flexible LAC4 zoning and proximity to Ventura Blvd present potential for value-add through repositioning or multi-family conversion.",
+ "thesis": "This 4-unit multifamily property in Northridge offers an opportunity to purchase a remodeled and upgraded asset in a desirable area with no rent control restrictions, allowing for higher rental income potential. While the asking price exceeds the $400k budget for a 25% down purchase, the adjacent 2-unit property may provide a bundled acquisition opportunity that could enhance overall returns.",
"risks": [
- "Probate sale with slow/uncertain closing timeline",
- "No cap rate disclosed, limiting income projection analysis",
- "Age and condition of the 1956-built structure may require significant renovation"
+ "Insufficient down payment for a 25% LTV purchase without additional financing or budget adjustments",
+ "No disclosed cap rate limits ability to estimate returns and compare to market benchmarks",
+ "Adjacent 2-unit property availability may complicate due diligence and increase complexity of the deal"
],
"upside": [
- "Flexible LAC4 zoning allows for office, retail, or mixed-use development",
- "Lowest entry price in the area suggests potential for appreciation",
- "Strategic location near Ventura Blvd offers strong traffic and visibility"
+ "No rent control in Northridge (built 1980) allows for higher rent increases and greater NOI potential",
+ "Remodeled and new-construction units may contribute to higher occupancy and rental rates",
+ "Potential for bundled acquisition with adjacent 2-unit property may offer scale and diversification"
],
"opportunity_score": 65,
"recommendation": "Watch"
},
"qwenScore": 65,
- "composite": 31,
- "rank": 12
+ "composite": 35,
+ "rank": 9
+ },
+ {
+ "id": "burbank10701",
+ "address": "10701 Burbank Blvd",
+ "city": "North Hollywood",
+ "zip": "91601",
+ "type": "Retail/NNN",
+ "price": 2799000,
+ "units": 1,
+ "sqft": 1802,
+ "cap_rate": 7.3,
+ "year_built": 1951,
+ "rent_control": "Commercial NNN — n/a",
+ "status": "Active (OUT OF BUDGET — context)",
+ "upside_note": "Single-tenant NNN cannabis dispensary, $204k NOI, 10-yr lease 2% bumps, fully passive. High cap but cannabis-tenant risk + needs ~$700k down.",
+ "source": "https://www.jayrubin-re.com/file/view-file/580",
+ "finance": {
+ "down": 699750,
+ "closing": 69975,
+ "cashNeeded": 769725,
+ "loan": 2099250,
+ "annualDebtService": 163388,
+ "noi": 204327,
+ "cashFlow": 40939,
+ "coc": 5.32,
+ "dscr": 1.25,
+ "affordable": false
+ },
+ "financeScore": 24,
+ "financeConf": "high",
+ "qwen": {
+ "thesis": "This single-tenant NNN cannabis dispensary offers a high cap rate of 7.3% with a 10-year lease and 2% annual rent bumps, providing stable cash flow and long-term income potential. However, the required down payment exceeds the $400k budget, limiting leverage and cash-on-cash return.",
+ "risks": [
+ "Cannabis industry regulatory and legal risks",
+ "Tenant-specific risk due to single-tenant exposure",
+ "Down payment shortfall may require additional financing or reduce leverage"
+ ],
+ "upside": [
+ "Attractive cap rate and long-term lease with rent bumps",
+ "Fully passive management with NNN structure",
+ "Potential for appreciation in a growing retail market"
+ ],
+ "opportunity_score": 55,
+ "recommendation": "Watch"
+ },
+ "qwenScore": 55,
+ "composite": 32,
+ "rank": 10
},
{
"id": "sepulveda8144",
@@ -650,7 +563,7 @@
},
"qwenScore": 65,
"composite": 29,
- "rank": 13
+ "rank": 11
},
{
"id": "canby7260",
@@ -698,7 +611,7 @@
},
"qwenScore": 65,
"composite": 29,
- "rank": 14
+ "rank": 12
},
{
"id": "tilden8837",
@@ -746,6 +659,102 @@
},
"qwenScore": 55,
"composite": 28,
+ "rank": 13
+ },
+ {
+ "id": "vannuys12872",
+ "address": "12872 Van Nuys Blvd",
+ "city": "Pacoima",
+ "zip": "91331",
+ "type": "Multifamily",
+ "price": 949900,
+ "units": 3,
+ "sqft": 2084,
+ "cap_rate": null,
+ "year_built": 1948,
+ "rent_control": "Pre-1978 -> LA RSO",
+ "status": "Active (one source showed Pending — VERIFY)",
+ "upside_note": "Cap not disclosed; renovated triplex, new roof/windows/plumbing; STATUS UNCERTAIN",
+ "source": "https://www.compass.com/homedetails/12872-Van-Nuys-Blvd-Pacoima-CA-91331/1L7DX2_pid/",
+ "finance": {
+ "down": 237475,
+ "closing": 23748,
+ "cashNeeded": 261223,
+ "loan": 712425,
+ "annualDebtService": 55449,
+ "noi": null,
+ "cashFlow": null,
+ "coc": null,
+ "dscr": null,
+ "affordable": true
+ },
+ "financeScore": 13,
+ "financeConf": "low",
+ "qwen": {
+ "thesis": "This renovated triplex in Pacoima offers a leveraged opportunity for a buyer with $400k available for down payment and closing costs. With a 25% down payment, the cash needed is within budget, and the property's recent upgrades (roof, windows, plumbing) may support competitive rental rates in a rent-controlled market.",
+ "risks": [
+ "Uncertain property status (active vs. pending) could affect transaction timing and terms",
+ "Rent control under LA RSO may limit rental income growth potential",
+ "Age of the building (1948) may imply hidden maintenance or compliance costs"
+ ],
+ "upside": [
+ "Recent renovations may allow for higher occupancy and rental rates",
+ "Strategic location in Pacoima may benefit from area revitalization",
+ "Leverage available with 25% down payment to maximize returns"
+ ],
+ "opportunity_score": 65,
+ "recommendation": "Watch"
+ },
+ "qwenScore": 65,
+ "composite": 26,
+ "rank": 14
+ },
+ {
+ "id": "comercio5301",
+ "address": "5301 Comercio Lane",
+ "city": "Woodland Hills",
+ "zip": "91364",
+ "type": "Mixed-use",
+ "price": 814250,
+ "units": 4,
+ "sqft": 3473,
+ "cap_rate": null,
+ "year_built": 1956,
+ "rent_control": "LAC4 (office/retail mixed)",
+ "status": "Pending (probate/court-confirmation)",
+ "upside_note": "Cap not disclosed; probate trust sale, court-confirmation required (slow/uncertain close); LAC4 flexible use near Ventura Blvd; lowest entry price",
+ "source": "https://www.nuevo-realestate.com/real-estate/5301-comercio-lane-woodland-hills-ca-91364/25577103/183735124",
+ "finance": {
+ "down": 203563,
+ "closing": 20356,
+ "cashNeeded": 223919,
+ "loan": 610688,
+ "annualDebtService": 47531,
+ "noi": null,
+ "cashFlow": null,
+ "coc": null,
+ "dscr": null,
+ "affordable": true
+ },
+ "financeScore": 13,
+ "financeConf": "low",
+ "qwen": {
+ "thesis": "This mixed-use property in Woodland Hills offers a unique opportunity for a leveraged buyer with $400k available for down and closing, given its low entry price relative to comparable assets in the area. Its flexible LAC4 zoning and proximity to Ventura Blvd present potential for value-add through repositioning or multi-family conversion.",
+ "risks": [
+ "Probate sale with slow/uncertain closing timeline",
+ "No cap rate disclosed, limiting income projection analysis",
+ "Age and condition of the 1956-built structure may require significant renovation"
+ ],
+ "upside": [
+ "Flexible LAC4 zoning allows for office, retail, or mixed-use development",
+ "Lowest entry price in the area suggests potential for appreciation",
+ "Strategic location near Ventura Blvd offers strong traffic and visibility"
+ ],
+ "opportunity_score": 65,
+ "recommendation": "Watch"
+ },
+ "qwenScore": 65,
+ "composite": 26,
"rank": 15
},
{
@@ -844,54 +853,6 @@
"composite": 21,
"rank": 17
},
- {
- "id": "canby7454",
- "address": "7454 Canby Ave",
- "city": "Reseda",
- "zip": "91335",
- "type": "Multifamily",
- "price": 1749000,
- "units": 9,
- "sqft": 6784,
- "cap_rate": null,
- "year_built": 1962,
- "rent_control": "Pre-1978 -> LA RSO",
- "status": "Active Under Contract",
- "upside_note": "9 units at $194k/unit, diverse mix — but in escrow; back-up only",
- "source": "https://www.remax.com/ca/reseda/home-details/7454-canby-ave-reseda-ca-91335/13235972936323110093/M00000093/SR26009655",
- "finance": {
- "down": 437250,
- "closing": 43725,
- "cashNeeded": 480975,
- "loan": 1311750,
- "annualDebtService": 102096,
- "noi": null,
- "cashFlow": null,
- "coc": null,
- "dscr": null,
- "affordable": false
- },
- "financeScore": 2,
- "financeConf": "low",
- "qwen": {
- "thesis": "This 9-unit multifamily property in Reseda offers a potential opportunity for a value-add investor with a $400k budget, leveraging the existing escrow status and the diverse unit mix. However, the required down payment exceeds the available budget, requiring creative financing or a reduction in purchase price to make the deal viable.",
- "risks": [
- "Insufficient down payment to meet the $480,975 requirement, potentially limiting financing options or requiring higher interest rates.",
- "Rent control regulations (LA RSO) may limit rental income growth and increase operational complexity.",
- "Uncertainty around the property's current NOI and cap rate, which are critical for evaluating long-term returns."
- ],
- "upside": [
- "Diverse unit mix may allow for targeted renovations and rent increases on non-rent-controlled units.",
- "Location in Reseda offers potential for long-term appreciation and stable cash flow in a growing market.",
- "Existing escrow status may provide a window to negotiate terms or secure a backup position."
- ],
- "opportunity_score": 55,
- "recommendation": "Watch"
- },
- "qwenScore": 55,
- "composite": 19,
- "rank": 18
- },
{
"id": "vanowen15840",
"address": "15840 Vanowen St",
@@ -938,6 +899,54 @@
},
"qwenScore": 60,
"composite": 18,
+ "rank": 18
+ },
+ {
+ "id": "canby7454",
+ "address": "7454 Canby Ave",
+ "city": "Reseda",
+ "zip": "91335",
+ "type": "Multifamily",
+ "price": 1749000,
+ "units": 9,
+ "sqft": 6784,
+ "cap_rate": null,
+ "year_built": 1962,
+ "rent_control": "Pre-1978 -> LA RSO",
+ "status": "Active Under Contract",
+ "upside_note": "9 units at $194k/unit, diverse mix — but in escrow; back-up only",
+ "source": "https://www.remax.com/ca/reseda/home-details/7454-canby-ave-reseda-ca-91335/13235972936323110093/M00000093/SR26009655",
+ "finance": {
+ "down": 437250,
+ "closing": 43725,
+ "cashNeeded": 480975,
+ "loan": 1311750,
+ "annualDebtService": 102096,
+ "noi": null,
+ "cashFlow": null,
+ "coc": null,
+ "dscr": null,
+ "affordable": false
+ },
+ "financeScore": 0,
+ "financeConf": "low",
+ "qwen": {
+ "thesis": "This 9-unit multifamily property in Reseda offers a potential opportunity for a value-add investor with a $400k budget, leveraging the existing escrow status and the diverse unit mix. However, the required down payment exceeds the available budget, requiring creative financing or a reduction in purchase price to make the deal viable.",
+ "risks": [
+ "Insufficient down payment to meet the $480,975 requirement, potentially limiting financing options or requiring higher interest rates.",
+ "Rent control regulations (LA RSO) may limit rental income growth and increase operational complexity.",
+ "Uncertainty around the property's current NOI and cap rate, which are critical for evaluating long-term returns."
+ ],
+ "upside": [
+ "Diverse unit mix may allow for targeted renovations and rent increases on non-rent-controlled units.",
+ "Location in Reseda offers potential for long-term appreciation and stable cash flow in a growing market.",
+ "Existing escrow status may provide a window to negotiate terms or secure a backup position."
+ ],
+ "opportunity_score": 55,
+ "recommendation": "Watch"
+ },
+ "qwenScore": 55,
+ "composite": 16,
"rank": 19
}
]
diff --git a/public/finance.js b/public/finance.js
index 6709a61..64507d5 100644
--- a/public/finance.js
+++ b/public/finance.js
@@ -41,7 +41,7 @@
if (f.dscr != null) s += f.dscr >= 1.25 ? 8 : f.dscr >= 1.0 ? 0 : -15;
if (L.cap_rate != null) s += (L.cap_rate - 5) * 3;
conf = 'high';
- } else { s = 45; conf = 'low'; } // NOI undisclosed -> can't score return
+ } else { s = 38; conf = 'low'; } // NOI undisclosed -> can't score return; lowered base so unknown-NOI deals don't free-ride a neutral score above verified ones
if (!f.affordable) s -= 18;
if (/Under Contract|Pending/i.test(L.status || '')) s -= 25;
if (/OUT OF BUDGET/i.test(L.status || '')) s -= 30;
@@ -55,6 +55,9 @@
else c = fScore;
if (/Under Contract|Pending/i.test(L.status || '')) c = Math.round(c * 0.65);
if (!f.affordable) c = Math.round(c * 0.85);
+ // Unverified-NOI confidence penalty: a deal whose in-place return we can't confirm
+ // (cap undisclosed, or explicitly not verified) must not outrank verified economics.
+ if (L.cap_rate == null || L.verified === false) c = Math.round(c * 0.88);
return c;
}
diff --git a/public/index.html b/public/index.html
index 8bdc232..d1b2883 100644
--- a/public/index.html
+++ b/public/index.html
@@ -154,12 +154,15 @@ function card(p){
const capB = p.cap_rate!=null
? `<span class="b">${p.cap_rate}% cap${p.cap_rate_projected?` →${p.cap_rate_projected}%*`:''}</span>`
: `<span class="b warn">cap n/d</span>`;
+ const verB = p.verified===true ? `<span class="b ok" title="In-place NOI confirmed against MLS">✓ cap verified</span>`
+ : (p.cap_rate!=null ? `<span class="b" title="Broker-stated cap, not independently verified">broker cap</span>`
+ : `<span class="b warn" title="No in-place income disclosed — return unverifiable, ranked down">⚠ no income data</span>`);
return `<div class="card ${uc?'uc':''}" id="card-${p.id}">
<div class="top">
<div><div class="rank">#${p.rank} · score</div><div class="addr">${p.address}</div><div class="city">${p.city}, CA ${p.zip||''}</div></div>
<div class="score">${p.composite}<small>fin ${p.financeScore}${p.qwenScore!=null?' · ai '+p.qwenScore:''}</small></div>
</div>
- <div class="badges"><span class="b type">${p.type}</span><span class="b">${p.units} unit${p.units>1?'s':''}</span><span class="b">${fmt(p.price)}</span>${capB}${statusB} ${aff} ${rec}</div>
+ <div class="badges"><span class="b type">${p.type}</span><span class="b">${p.units} unit${p.units>1?'s':''}</span><span class="b">${fmt(p.price)}</span>${capB}${verB}${statusB} ${aff} ${rec}</div>
<div class="metrics">
<div><span class="k">Cash-on-cash</span><span class="v ${cls(f.coc,6,3)}">${pct(f.coc)}</span></div>
<div><span class="k">DSCR</span><span class="v ${cls(f.dscr,1.25,1.0)}">${f.dscr??'—'}</span></div>
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