TK-11361: soften attribution claim to match evidence strength

33dd248c5a11f6ee844dafebf087ebd392a333c9 · 2026-09-10 07:45:09 -0700 · Steve Abrams

Codex second-model pass flagged that 'neither node has ever produced a discount
application' is an absolute claim resting on title attribution + chronology, not
on a provenance link - Shopify does not expose the source node id on a discount
application. Reworded to 'no evidence either DW node contributes to any observed
order', added an explicit proven-vs-inferred split, and scoped the result to the
measured window rather than stating it universally.

The headline answer is unchanged and robust: the cap held at 3, and it holds even
if a DW node also emits a 'Free sample' title, since counts and amounts would
still have moved.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_012F3D7ErxQBRwTvVtz3kVXv

Files touched

M verification/tk11361/FINDING.md

Diff

commit 33dd248c5a11f6ee844dafebf087ebd392a333c9
Author: Steve Abrams <steve@designerwallcoverings.com>
Date:   Thu Sep 10 07:45:09 2026 -0700

    TK-11361: soften attribution claim to match evidence strength
    
    Codex second-model pass flagged that 'neither node has ever produced a discount
    application' is an absolute claim resting on title attribution + chronology, not
    on a provenance link - Shopify does not expose the source node id on a discount
    application. Reworded to 'no evidence either DW node contributes to any observed
    order', added an explicit proven-vs-inferred split, and scoped the result to the
    measured window rather than stating it universally.
    
    The headline answer is unchanged and robust: the cap held at 3, and it holds even
    if a DW node also emits a 'Free sample' title, since counts and amounts would
    still have moved.
    
    Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
    Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_012F3D7ErxQBRwTvVtz3kVXv
---
 verification/tk11361/FINDING.md | 26 ++++++++++++++++++++++++--
 1 file changed, 24 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-)

diff --git a/verification/tk11361/FINDING.md b/verification/tk11361/FINDING.md
index f6f4d60..46e8968 100644
--- a/verification/tk11361/FINDING.md
+++ b/verification/tk11361/FINDING.md
@@ -117,8 +117,11 @@ Each line discounted exactly its own price — once, not twice.
 
 ## Why it is harmless — the real reason (and it is not what we assumed)
 
-**The DW Free Samples function grants nothing. Neither node has ever produced a
-single discount application on any real order.**
+**No evidence that either DW node contributes to any observed order. Observed
+behaviour is fully explained by a different app.** (This is strong inference from
+title attribution + chronology, NOT a hard provenance link — the Admin API does
+not expose the source node id on a discount application. See *Provenance
+caveat* below.)
 
 The free samples customers actually receive come from a *different* app:
 
@@ -163,6 +166,25 @@ needs updating in the same change.
 
 Still a Shopify write on a customer-facing money surface → **stays gated.**
 
+## Provenance caveat (raised by the codex second-model pass)
+Attribution rests on discount-application *titles* plus the chronology, not on a
+source-node identifier — Shopify's `AutomaticDiscountApplication` does not expose
+which node/function emitted it. So the precise claim is:
+
+- **Proven by outcome:** in the measured window, the entitlement stayed capped at
+  3 and no line was over-discounted. **This holds even if a DW node also emits an
+  application titled `"Free sample"`** — identical titles could hide a dual
+  source, but the *counts and amounts* would still have moved, and they did not.
+- **Strongly inferred, not proven:** that Regios is the sole contributor and the
+  DW nodes contribute nothing.
+
+Also note the measurement is scoped to the observed window (250 orders,
+2026-07-15 → 2026-09-10), not a universal claim.
+
+To close the loop definitively, a targeted edge-case cart (4+ eligible sample
+lines, a customer near the lifetime cap, mixed eligible/ineligible variants)
+would be needed — that touches live checkout and stays gated.
+
 ## Cost
 $0. All read-only Shopify Admin GraphQL. No customer created, no cart, no order,
 no discount modified.

← 7e96b04 TK-11361: Option A measured — cap holds at 3, duplicate is i · back to Dw Signup Fulfillment · TK-11285: close the second-writer race the deploy preflight bef6f4f →