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TK-10836: contrarian overturns my Option D headline; correct it and kill 3 more hypotheses
944582afe2ac2d960015289e47b0fd366d955c0e · 2026-09-10 08:00:01 -0700 · Steve Abrams
Cody was right that 158/192 = 82%% smeared a cliff. Re-bucketed from my own data
(comped, US, 1-4 sample lines): Jul 100%%, Aug 65%%, Sep 35%%; Aug 1-17 100%% ->
Sep 1-10 35%%. The collapse starts the week Kelly checked out and is still worsening.
SURVIVES: the $0.00 rate WAS on Kelly's menu. Untruncated Samples-profile dump shows
$0.00 / $24.95 / ups_shipping / fedex all active in Domestic; both priced conditions
have a $0.00 lower bound; no customization or function hides it; 12/12 PAID comped
orders resolve to Kelly's same profile. Reading availability off a selected shipping
line was invalid.
DOES NOT SURVIVE: my 'therefore benign' conclusion. Default/steering never established.
KILLED (do not re-run): profile-leak (ups/fedex are inside the Samples profile),
Shop Pay steering (88%% Shop-tagged in both windows, free%% fell in both groups),
weight gate, $0-subtotal suppression, multi-profile mismatch.
TK-11366 escalates: ~27 customers in 3 weeks paid $16-25 on 'free' samples, root
cause open. Volume rose ~6x in the same window - population change not excluded.
Read-only throughout. Nothing sent, created, or changed on Shopify.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01CD85VaG9BZGi3NjWGbKqvX
Files touched
M verification/tk10836/OPTION-D-RESULT.mdA verification/tk10836/shoppay-correlation.jsonA verification/tk10836/verify-paid-order-profiles.jsA verification/tk10836/verify-profile-leak.jsA verification/tk10836/verify-shoppay-correlation.js
Diff
commit 944582afe2ac2d960015289e47b0fd366d955c0e
Author: Steve Abrams <steve@designerwallcoverings.com>
Date: Thu Sep 10 08:00:01 2026 -0700
TK-10836: contrarian overturns my Option D headline; correct it and kill 3 more hypotheses
Cody was right that 158/192 = 82%% smeared a cliff. Re-bucketed from my own data
(comped, US, 1-4 sample lines): Jul 100%%, Aug 65%%, Sep 35%%; Aug 1-17 100%% ->
Sep 1-10 35%%. The collapse starts the week Kelly checked out and is still worsening.
SURVIVES: the $0.00 rate WAS on Kelly's menu. Untruncated Samples-profile dump shows
$0.00 / $24.95 / ups_shipping / fedex all active in Domestic; both priced conditions
have a $0.00 lower bound; no customization or function hides it; 12/12 PAID comped
orders resolve to Kelly's same profile. Reading availability off a selected shipping
line was invalid.
DOES NOT SURVIVE: my 'therefore benign' conclusion. Default/steering never established.
KILLED (do not re-run): profile-leak (ups/fedex are inside the Samples profile),
Shop Pay steering (88%% Shop-tagged in both windows, free%% fell in both groups),
weight gate, $0-subtotal suppression, multi-profile mismatch.
TK-11366 escalates: ~27 customers in 3 weeks paid $16-25 on 'free' samples, root
cause open. Volume rose ~6x in the same window - population change not excluded.
Read-only throughout. Nothing sent, created, or changed on Shopify.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01CD85VaG9BZGi3NjWGbKqvX
---
verification/tk10836/OPTION-D-RESULT.md | 158 ++++---
verification/tk10836/shoppay-correlation.json | 516 +++++++++++++++++++++
verification/tk10836/verify-paid-order-profiles.js | 29 ++
verification/tk10836/verify-profile-leak.js | 60 +++
verification/tk10836/verify-shoppay-correlation.js | 50 ++
5 files changed, 751 insertions(+), 62 deletions(-)
diff --git a/verification/tk10836/OPTION-D-RESULT.md b/verification/tk10836/OPTION-D-RESULT.md
index 667394f..3817d3e 100644
--- a/verification/tk10836/OPTION-D-RESULT.md
+++ b/verification/tk10836/OPTION-D-RESULT.md
@@ -1,70 +1,104 @@
-# TK-10836 — Option D COMPLETE: why Kelly's checkout showed $24.95
+# TK-10836 — Option D result (REVISED after contrarian red-team, 2026-09-10)
-Run 2026-09-10, READ-ONLY (Shopify Admin GraphQL/REST, `SHOPIFY_FULL_ACCESS_TOKEN` …2ea5). Cost $0.
-Zero writes: no order, no draft order, no discount, no shipping config, no email.
+READ-ONLY throughout. `SHOPIFY_FULL_ACCESS_TOKEN` (…2ea5). Cost $0.
+Zero writes: no order, draft order, discount, shipping-config, or email.
-## 0. The memo said D was blocked. It was not.
-Memo text: *"D … needs a Storefront token + read_shipping (fulfillment token returns ACCESS_DENIED on deliveryProfiles)."*
-Enumerated `/admin/oauth/access_scopes.json` for all 7 stored Shopify tokens:
-`SHOPIFY_FULL_ACCESS_TOKEN` (…2ea5) already carries **read_shipping** (+ read_discounts, read_all_orders).
-`SHOPIFY_FULFILLMENT_TOKEN` (…5f96) does not. The ACCESS_DENIED was a **wrong-token artifact**, not a missing grant.
+> **This file was rewritten after Cody the Contrarian broke my first version.**
+> The first version claimed "158/192 = 82% free, hypothesis falsified, promise deliverable,
+> blocker withdrawn." That averaged seven good months over a collapse that begins the week
+> Kelly checked out. Both the original claim and the correction are recorded below.
-## 1. Kelly's cart is served by a dedicated sample delivery profile
-AbandonedCheckout **34015098110003** (kyounge@umich.edu, 2026-08-24T03:36:31Z, Ann Arbor MI 48108):
-3 lines — DWCC-600006-Sample, DWCC-600045-Sample, DWCC-600128-Sample, $4.25 each, 0.25 lb each.
-**All 3 variants resolve to delivery profile `Samples — Free Shipping (No Tracking)`** (single-profile cart).
-subtotal $0.00 · discount $12.75 · tax $0.00 · **TOTAL $24.95 = pure shipping**.
+---
+
+## PART 1 — What is PROVEN about Kelly's cart (survives red-team)
+
+**Option D was never actually blocked.** The memo said it needed "a Storefront token +
+`read_shipping`." Scope enumeration across all 7 stored Shopify tokens: `SHOPIFY_FULL_ACCESS_TOKEN`
+(…2ea5) already carries `read_shipping`. The `ACCESS_DENIED` was a wrong-token artifact.
+
+**Kelly's cart, `AbandonedCheckout/34015098110003`** (kyounge@umich.edu, 2026-08-24T03:36:31Z,
+Ann Arbor MI 48108): 3 lines — DWCC-600006 / 600045 / 600128-Sample — items $0.00, discount
+$12.75, tax $0.00, **TOTAL $24.95 = pure shipping**.
+
+**All 3 variants → delivery profile `Samples — Free Shipping (No Tracking)`.** Full untruncated
+dump of that profile's **Domestic** zone (4 methods, all active):
-## 2. That profile's Domestic zone offers BOTH rates, and both cover a $0.00 cart
| rate | price | condition |
|---|---|---|
-| Free Shipping (No Tracking) | **$0.00** | TOTAL_PRICE ≥ $0.00 AND ≤ $45.00 |
+| **Free Shipping (No Tracking)** | **$0.00** | TOTAL_PRICE ≥ $0.00 AND ≤ $45.00 |
| Priority Sample Only | $24.95 | TOTAL_PRICE ≥ $0.00 AND ≤ $20.00 |
+| ups_shipping | carrier | (none) |
+| fedex | carrier | (none) |
+
+$0.00 satisfies **both** priced conditions. `deliveryCustomizations` = none. `shopifyFunctions` =
+none. No custom carrier service emits these names. **Nothing in configuration suppresses the free
+rate on her cart.** Corroborated: **12/12** *paid* comped sample orders sampled resolve to the
+**same profile** as Kelly's — identical menu, different selection. Free orders exist in her exact
+window (#32901, 2026-08-20, VA, 3 comped lines, $0.00) and in Michigan (2/2).
+
+**Therefore:** an abandoned checkout records the **selected** shipping line, not the **available**
+set. The prior reversal (`ec11bce`) read availability off a selection. That specific inference was
+wrong, and `Priority Sample Only` $24.95 was on the menu next to $0.00.
+
+Also: her cart was abandoned **2026-08-24T03:36Z**, *before* info@ gave her code 3FREE
+(2026-08-25 08:38 PT) — it was never a post-honor attempt. 3FREE is moot regardless: her items were
+already $0.00 and 3FREE discounts items only.
+
+## PART 2 — What Cody broke, and what I confirmed against my own data
+
+My 82% headline **smeared a cliff**. Re-bucketed from my own `rate-vs-subtotal.json`
+(comped, US, 1–4 sample lines = Kelly-shaped):
+
+| month | n | free % | | window | n | free % |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 2026-02 | 33 | 100% | | Aug 1–17 | 3 | 100% |
+| 2026-06 | 10 | 100% | | Aug 18–24 | 3 | 67% |
+| 2026-07 | 12 | 100% | | Aug 25–31 | 14 | 57% |
+| 2026-08 | 20 | **65%** | | **Sep 1–10** | **31** | **35%** |
+| 2026-09 | 31 | **35%** | | | | |
+
+**Cody was right.** Seven months near 100% averaged with a collapse that starts the week Kelly
+checked out and is *still worsening today*. 82% is true and irrelevant — it is not the number that
+applied to her. Paid rate mix since Aug 18: **UPS® Ground ×23, Priority Sample Only ×4.**
+
+Also confirmed from Cody: rate name `"Free Shipping"` (no suffix) is retired (last seen 2026-03-17)
+and silently supplied 69 of my 158 "free" hits — undisclosed rate-lineage pooling on my part.
+
+## PART 3 — Mechanisms I proposed and then KILLED (recorded so nobody re-runs them)
+
+1. **"Free rate suppressed at a $0.00 subtotal."** FALSE — both conditions have a $0.00 lower bound,
+ and 158 comped carts shipped free.
+2. **"Weight gate."** FALSE — the Domestic zone has only TOTAL_PRICE conditions, no TOTAL_WEIGHT.
+3. **"Sample variants leaking into the General profile, so UPS Ground replaced the free rate."**
+ FALSE — `ups_shipping` and `fedex` are *inside* the Samples profile; 12/12 paid comped orders are
+ in that profile. (I nearly propagated this; the untruncated dump killed it.)
+4. **"Shop Pay / Login-with-Shop accelerated checkout preselects a paid rate."** FALSE — Shop-tagged
+ share is **88% in both windows**, and free% fell in *both* the Shop-tagged group (100%→48%) and
+ the untagged group (100%→17%). Not a Shop Pay effect.
+5. **"Multi-profile cart mismatch."** FALSE — exactly one `Samples —` profile exists store-wide.
+
+## PART 4 — Honest state
+
+**Kelly (this ticket).** The $0.00 option was on her menu. The emailed promise is *achievable*, and
+the ticket's "the checkout could not deliver it" premise is not supported. But I cannot show she was
+not **steered** to the paid option, because I never established what checkout **preselects**.
+
+**The real finding (bigger than Kelly).** There is a genuine, worsening, **unexplained** collapse in
+free-shipping selection on comped sample carts beginning ~2026-08-18: 100% → 48% → 35%, same
+profile, rate still active and still chosen by some, not explained by any of the five mechanisms
+above. ~27 customers in three weeks paid **$16–25 shipping on "free" samples**. Volume also rose
+~6× in the same window (25 orders in Jun 1–Aug 17 vs 48 in Aug 18–Sep 10), so a **population change
+is an unexcluded confound** alongside a possible checkout change.
+
+**The one unrun test** (both Cody and Codex named it): a **live checkout render** on a $0-item,
+3-line US sample cart — read the offered options *and which is preselected*. That requires either a
+Storefront API token (we hold none) or driving the live storefront in a browser, which creates a
+real abandoned-checkout record and may trip an abandoned-cart email. **Not run — externality,
+Steve's call.**
-$0.00 satisfies **both** ranges. No delivery customization / rate-hiding Shopify Function exists
-(`deliveryCustomizations` = none, `shopifyFunctions` = none). No custom carrier service produces these
-names. So **nothing in config suppresses the free rate at a $0.00 subtotal.**
-
-## 3. Empirical falsification test (the decisive one)
-Hypothesis under test: *when the DW Free Samples automatic zeroes items to $0.00, the free rate is
-suppressed and only $24.95 remains* — i.e. the promise is structurally undeliverable.
-
-Scanned **1,657** sample-only orders since 2026-01-01 (1,535 US domestic). Isolated
-**Group A = items charged $0.00** (fully-comped — Kelly's exact economic shape): **n=192**.
-
-- **158 of 192 shipped $0.00** on Free Shipping (No Tracking) / Free Shipping. 34 chose a paid rate.
-- Kelly-shaped subset (comped, US, **2–4 sample lines**): n=53 → **38 free / 15 paid**.
-- Exactly-3-comped-lines shipping free: 11 orders, incl. **#32901 (2026-08-20, VA)** — four days
- *before* Kelly's checkout, same shape. Brackets her in time.
-- **MICHIGAN** comped sample-only: 2/2 shipped $0.00 (#31033 n=4, #32954 n=1). No MI exclusion.
-
-**HYPOTHESIS FALSIFIED.** The $0.00 method is offered on a $0.00-subtotal, US, multi-sample cart.
-
-## 4. Conclusion — the 2026-09-10 reversal (commit ec11bce) was itself wrong
-The reversal inferred *"the $0 method was not OFFERED on her cart"* from the fact that her recorded
-checkout total was $24.95. An abandoned checkout records the **selected** shipping line, not the
-**available** set. The available set provably included $0.00.
-
-`Priority Sample Only` $24.95 is a **selectable upgrade sitting next to a $0.00 option**, not a forced
-charge. Kelly had the upgrade selected when she abandoned — at 03:36 UTC on 2026-08-24, which is
-*before* info@ gave her code 3FREE (2026-08-25 08:38 PT), so this cart was never a post-honor attempt.
-
-Also note 3FREE is irrelevant either way: her items were already $0.00 via the automatic, and 3FREE
-discounts items only.
-
-**The emailed promise is deliverable as written.** It was imprecise, not false: the accurate
-instruction is *"select **Free Shipping (No Tracking)** at checkout and you pay $0.00."*
-
-## 5. What this does to the fork
-- **D — DONE.** No shipping-config defect to fix. Nothing gated required.
-- **A — now a one-line, low-risk send** (still GATED: outbound customer email).
-- **B (comp an order) / C (write-off) — no longer justified** by a broken promise; only by goodwill.
-- **TK-11366 (systemic) — de-escalates** from "every free-sample customer is promised something the
- checkout can't deliver" (FALSE) to a real but lesser **UX/merchandising** question: a $24.95 upgrade
- is presented next to $0.00 on a *free-samples* flow, and 34/192 comped carts (18%) paid anyway.
-
-## 6. Residual uncertainty (stated, not hidden)
-Not established: whether $0.00 is the **preselected default** rate at checkout, or whether Kelly
-actively chose the upgrade. Determining that needs a live checkout render (Storefront/browser), which
-was not run. It does not change the finding above — availability is proven either way — but it is the
-open question behind the 18% paid rate, and it belongs to TK-11366.
+## PART 5 — Effect on the fork
+- **D** — answered for *availability*, **NOT** answered for *default/steering*. Root cause open.
+- **A** (send her the working instruction) — supported and low-risk; still an outbound send = GATED.
+- **B** (comp and ship) — still available as unconditional honor; GATED.
+- **C** (write-off) — weaker now: this is not a one-customer anomaly.
+- **TK-11366** — **escalates, not de-escalates.** It is the incident; Kelly is the detected instance.
diff --git a/verification/tk10836/shoppay-correlation.json b/verification/tk10836/shoppay-correlation.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..7d8b594
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/tk10836/shoppay-correlation.json
@@ -0,0 +1,516 @@
+{
+ "generated": "2026-09-10T14:58:15.970Z",
+ "rows": [
+ {
+ "name": "#32266",
+ "date": "2026-06-04",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": false,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32314",
+ "date": "2026-06-10",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32316",
+ "date": "2026-06-10",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32352",
+ "date": "2026-06-14",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32364",
+ "date": "2026-06-16",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32382",
+ "date": "2026-06-17",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32396",
+ "date": "2026-06-19",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32451",
+ "date": "2026-06-25",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32452",
+ "date": "2026-06-25",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": false,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32453",
+ "date": "2026-06-26",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32565",
+ "date": "2026-07-09",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32581",
+ "date": "2026-07-10",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32584",
+ "date": "2026-07-11",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32596",
+ "date": "2026-07-13",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32649",
+ "date": "2026-07-19",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32651",
+ "date": "2026-07-20",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32652",
+ "date": "2026-07-20",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32653",
+ "date": "2026-07-20",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": false,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32680",
+ "date": "2026-07-24",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32689",
+ "date": "2026-07-26",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32720",
+ "date": "2026-07-29",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32726",
+ "date": "2026-07-30",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32759",
+ "date": "2026-08-03",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32764",
+ "date": "2026-08-03",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32840",
+ "date": "2026-08-12",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32893",
+ "date": "2026-08-19",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32901",
+ "date": "2026-08-20",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32904",
+ "date": "2026-08-21",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32939",
+ "date": "2026-08-26",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32948",
+ "date": "2026-08-28",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32949",
+ "date": "2026-08-28",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32950",
+ "date": "2026-08-28",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": false,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32951",
+ "date": "2026-08-28",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32952",
+ "date": "2026-08-28",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32953",
+ "date": "2026-08-28",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32954",
+ "date": "2026-08-28",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32956",
+ "date": "2026-08-29",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32958",
+ "date": "2026-08-29",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Priority Sample Only"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32961",
+ "date": "2026-08-29",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32964",
+ "date": "2026-08-30",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32965",
+ "date": "2026-08-30",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32971",
+ "date": "2026-08-31",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32976",
+ "date": "2026-09-01",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32977",
+ "date": "2026-09-01",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32978",
+ "date": "2026-09-01",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32979",
+ "date": "2026-09-01",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32984",
+ "date": "2026-09-01",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": false,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32985",
+ "date": "2026-09-01",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32987",
+ "date": "2026-09-02",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Priority Sample Only"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32989",
+ "date": "2026-09-02",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32990",
+ "date": "2026-09-02",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32991",
+ "date": "2026-09-02",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32993",
+ "date": "2026-09-02",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": false,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#32999",
+ "date": "2026-09-03",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#33002",
+ "date": "2026-09-03",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#33008",
+ "date": "2026-09-04",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": false,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#33011",
+ "date": "2026-09-04",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#33012",
+ "date": "2026-09-04",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#33013",
+ "date": "2026-09-05",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#33014",
+ "date": "2026-09-05",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#33018",
+ "date": "2026-09-06",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#33019",
+ "date": "2026-09-06",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": false,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#33020",
+ "date": "2026-09-06",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#33021",
+ "date": "2026-09-06",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#33024",
+ "date": "2026-09-07",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Priority Sample Only"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#33026",
+ "date": "2026-09-07",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#33027",
+ "date": "2026-09-07",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#33028",
+ "date": "2026-09-07",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": false,
+ "rate": "Priority Sample Only"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#33032",
+ "date": "2026-09-07",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#33033",
+ "date": "2026-09-08",
+ "free": false,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "UPS® Ground"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#33041",
+ "date": "2026-09-09",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#33051",
+ "date": "2026-09-10",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "#33052",
+ "date": "2026-09-10",
+ "free": true,
+ "shop": true,
+ "rate": "Free Shipping (No Tracking)"
+ }
+ ]
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/verification/tk10836/verify-paid-order-profiles.js b/verification/tk10836/verify-paid-order-profiles.js
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b42be7d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/tk10836/verify-paid-order-profiles.js
@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+// TK-10836: do the PAID comped sample orders share Kelly's delivery profile?
+// (Previous attempt used a shipping_line: query filter that Shopify silently ignored.)
+const fs=require('fs'),os=require('os');
+for (const line of fs.readFileSync(os.homedir()+'/Projects/secrets-manager/.env','utf8').split('\n')) {
+ const m=line.match(/^\s*([A-Z0-9_]+)\s*=\s*(.*)$/); if(!m) continue;
+ let v=m[2].trim().replace(/^['"]|['"]$/g,''); if(!process.env[m[1]]) process.env[m[1]]=v;
+}
+const STORE=process.env.SHOPIFY_STORE_DOMAIN||'designer-laboratory-sandbox.myshopify.com';
+const TOKEN=process.env.SHOPIFY_FULL_ACCESS_TOKEN, API='2024-10';
+async function gql(q,v={}){const r=await fetch(`https://${STORE}/admin/api/${API}/graphql.json`,{method:'POST',
+ headers:{'X-Shopify-Access-Token':TOKEN,'Content-Type':'application/json'},body:JSON.stringify({query:q,variables:v})});
+ const j=await r.json(); if(j.errors)console.error('ERR',JSON.stringify(j.errors).slice(0,300)); return j.data;}
+const NAMES=['#33033','#33020','#33019','#33018','#33014','#33013','#33011','#33008','#32999','#33024','#33028','#32987'];
+(async()=>{
+ const seen={};
+ for(const nm of NAMES){
+ const d=await gql(`query($q:String!){ orders(first:1, query:$q){ nodes{ name createdAt
+ totalShippingPriceSet{shopMoney{amount}} shippingLine{title} shippingAddress{provinceCode}
+ customer{ createdAt numberOfOrders tags }
+ lineItems(first:8){ nodes{ variant{ sku deliveryProfile{name} product{createdAt} } } } } } }`,{q:`name:${nm}`});
+ const o=d?.orders?.nodes?.[0]; if(!o){console.log(`${nm} not found`);continue;}
+ const profs=[...new Set(o.lineItems.nodes.map(l=>l.variant?.deliveryProfile?.name||'(unknown)'))];
+ for(const p of profs) seen[p]=(seen[p]||0)+1;
+ console.log(`${o.name} ${o.createdAt.slice(0,10)} ${o.shippingAddress?.provinceCode} $${o.totalShippingPriceSet.shopMoney.amount} "${o.shippingLine?.title}"`);
+ console.log(` profiles: ${profs.join(' | ')} | customer created ${o.customer?.createdAt?.slice(0,10)} orders=${o.customer?.numberOfOrders} tags=[${(o.customer?.tags||[]).join(',')}]`);
+ }
+ console.log('\nPROFILE TALLY across paid comped orders:', JSON.stringify(seen));
+})();
diff --git a/verification/tk10836/verify-profile-leak.js b/verification/tk10836/verify-profile-leak.js
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..51169e5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/tk10836/verify-profile-leak.js
@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+// TK-10836 (post-red-team): WHY did comped sample carts stop getting the $0.00 rate after ~Aug 18?
+// The Samples profile's Domestic zone offers ONLY: Free Shipping (No Tracking) $0.00 + Priority
+// Sample Only $24.95. "UPS(R) Ground" is NOT one of them -- it lives in the General profile.
+// So a sample-only order that shipped UPS Ground proves its variants were NOT in the Samples profile.
+// TEST: for recent PAID comped sample orders vs recent FREE ones, resolve each line item's
+// delivery profile. Read-only.
+const fs=require('fs'),os=require('os');
+for (const line of fs.readFileSync(os.homedir()+'/Projects/secrets-manager/.env','utf8').split('\n')) {
+ const m=line.match(/^\s*([A-Z0-9_]+)\s*=\s*(.*)$/); if(!m) continue;
+ let v=m[2].trim().replace(/^['"]|['"]$/g,''); if(!process.env[m[1]]) process.env[m[1]]=v;
+}
+const STORE=process.env.SHOPIFY_STORE_DOMAIN||'designer-laboratory-sandbox.myshopify.com';
+const TOKEN=process.env.SHOPIFY_FULL_ACCESS_TOKEN, API='2024-10';
+async function gql(q,v={}){const r=await fetch(`https://${STORE}/admin/api/${API}/graphql.json`,{method:'POST',
+ headers:{'X-Shopify-Access-Token':TOKEN,'Content-Type':'application/json'},body:JSON.stringify({query:q,variables:v})});
+ const j=await r.json(); if(j.errors)console.error('ERR',JSON.stringify(j.errors).slice(0,400)); return j.data;}
+
+// 1) FULL untruncated dump of the Samples profile Domestic zone
+// resolve the Samples profile id off one of Kelly's own variants, then dump it whole
+const FINDPROF=`query{ productVariants(first:1, query:"sku:DWCC-600006-Sample"){ nodes{ sku deliveryProfile{ id name } } } }`;
+const DUMP=`query($id:ID!){ node(id:$id){ ... on DeliveryProfile { name
+ profileLocationGroups{ locationGroupZones(first:8){ nodes{ zone{name}
+ methodDefinitions(first:40){ nodes{ name active
+ rateProvider{ __typename ... on DeliveryRateDefinition{ price{amount} } ... on DeliveryParticipant{ carrierService{formattedName} } } } } } } } } } }`;
+
+const ORDER=`query($q:String!){ orders(first:12, query:$q, sortKey:CREATED_AT, reverse:true){ nodes{
+ name createdAt totalShippingPriceSet{shopMoney{amount}} shippingLine{title}
+ shippingAddress{provinceCode}
+ lineItems(first:10){ nodes{ title quantity
+ variant{ sku createdAt deliveryProfile{ name } product{ createdAt vendor } } } } } } }`;
+
+(async()=>{
+ const fp=await gql(FINDPROF);
+ const prof=fp?.productVariants?.nodes?.[0]?.deliveryProfile;
+ console.log(`### FULL dump of Kelly's variant profile: "${prof?.name}" (untruncated) ###`);
+ const dp=await gql(DUMP,{id:prof.id});
+ for(const lg of dp.node.profileLocationGroups) for(const z of lg.locationGroupZones.nodes){
+ console.log(` zone=${z.zone.name}`);
+ for(const m of z.methodDefinitions.nodes){
+ const rp=m.rateProvider;
+ console.log(` - "${m.name}" active=${m.active} ${rp.price?`FLAT $${rp.price.amount}`:(rp.carrierService?`CARRIER ${rp.carrierService.formattedName}`:rp.__typename)}`);
+ }
+ }
+ for(const [label,q] of [
+ ['RECENT PAID comped sample orders','created_at:>2026-08-25 shipping_line:"UPS® Ground"'],
+ ['RECENT FREE comped sample orders','created_at:>2026-08-25 shipping_line:"Free Shipping (No Tracking)"']]){
+ console.log(`\n### ${label} — line-item delivery profiles ###`);
+ const d=await gql(ORDER,{q});
+ for(const o of (d?.orders?.nodes||[])){
+ const lis=o.lineItems.nodes;
+ if(!lis.every(li=>/(^|-)sample/i.test(li.variant?.sku||''))) continue;
+ const profs=[...new Set(lis.map(li=>li.variant?.deliveryProfile?.name||'(unknown)'))];
+ const newest=lis.map(li=>li.variant?.product?.createdAt||'').sort().pop();
+ console.log(` ${o.name} ${o.createdAt.slice(0,10)} ${o.shippingAddress?.provinceCode} $${o.totalShippingPriceSet.shopMoney.amount} "${o.shippingLine?.title}"`);
+ console.log(` profiles: ${profs.join(' | ')} newest product createdAt: ${newest.slice(0,10)}`);
+ for(const li of lis) console.log(` · ${li.variant?.sku} -> "${li.variant?.deliveryProfile?.name}" (product created ${li.variant?.product?.createdAt?.slice(0,10)}, vendor ${li.variant?.product?.vendor})`);
+ }
+ }
+})();
diff --git a/verification/tk10836/verify-shoppay-correlation.js b/verification/tk10836/verify-shoppay-correlation.js
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..729ab82
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/tk10836/verify-shoppay-correlation.js
@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+// TK-10836 / TK-11366: does the Aug-18+ collapse in free-shipping selection correlate with
+// Shop Pay / "Login with Shop" accelerated checkout? READ-ONLY.
+const fs=require('fs'),os=require('os');
+for (const line of fs.readFileSync(os.homedir()+'/Projects/secrets-manager/.env','utf8').split('\n')) {
+ const m=line.match(/^\s*([A-Z0-9_]+)\s*=\s*(.*)$/); if(!m) continue;
+ let v=m[2].trim().replace(/^['"]|['"]$/g,''); if(!process.env[m[1]]) process.env[m[1]]=v;
+}
+const STORE=process.env.SHOPIFY_STORE_DOMAIN||'designer-laboratory-sandbox.myshopify.com';
+const TOKEN=process.env.SHOPIFY_FULL_ACCESS_TOKEN, API='2024-10';
+async function gql(q,v={}){const r=await fetch(`https://${STORE}/admin/api/${API}/graphql.json`,{method:'POST',
+ headers:{'X-Shopify-Access-Token':TOKEN,'Content-Type':'application/json'},body:JSON.stringify({query:q,variables:v})});
+ const j=await r.json(); if(j.errors)console.error('ERR',JSON.stringify(j.errors).slice(0,300)); return j.data;}
+const Q=`query($c:String){ orders(first:40, after:$c, query:"created_at:>2026-06-01", sortKey:CREATED_AT){
+ pageInfo{hasNextPage endCursor}
+ nodes{ name createdAt totalShippingPriceSet{shopMoney{amount}} shippingLine{title}
+ shippingAddress{countryCodeV2}
+ customer{ tags }
+ lineItems(first:12){ nodes{ sku title discountedTotalSet{shopMoney{amount}} } } } } }`;
+(async()=>{
+ let c=null, rows=[];
+ do{
+ const d=await gql(Q,{c}); if(!d) break;
+ for(const o of d.orders.nodes){
+ const lis=o.lineItems.nodes; if(!lis.length) continue;
+ if(!lis.every(li=>/(^|-)sample/i.test(li.sku||'')||/sample|memo|swatch/i.test(li.title||''))) continue;
+ if(o.shippingAddress?.countryCodeV2!=='US') continue;
+ const charged=lis.reduce((s,li)=>s+Number(li.discountedTotalSet?.shopMoney?.amount||0),0);
+ if(charged>0) continue; // comped only
+ if(lis.length>4) continue; // Kelly-shaped
+ const tags=(o.customer?.tags||[]);
+ rows.push({name:o.name,date:o.createdAt.slice(0,10),
+ free:Number(o.totalShippingPriceSet.shopMoney.amount)===0,
+ shop:tags.some(t=>/^(Login with Shop|Shop)$/i.test(t)), rate:o.shippingLine?.title||'(none)'});
+ }
+ c=d.orders.pageInfo.hasNextPage?d.orders.pageInfo.endCursor:null;
+ }while(c);
+ const tab=(rs)=>{const s=rs.filter(r=>r.shop),n=rs.filter(r=>!r.shop);
+ const p=a=>a.length?`${a.filter(x=>x.free).length}/${a.length} (${(100*a.filter(x=>x.free).length/a.length).toFixed(0)}% free)`:'n/a';
+ return ` Shop-Pay/Login-with-Shop: ${p(s)}\n NOT Shop tagged : ${p(n)}`;};
+ console.log('=== Comped, US, 1-4 sample lines, since 2026-06-01 ===');
+ console.log(`total n=${rows.length}\n`);
+ for(const [lab,lo,hi] of [['JUN 1 - AUG 17','2026-06-01','2026-08-17'],['AUG 18 - SEP 10','2026-08-18','2026-09-30']]){
+ const sub=rows.filter(r=>r.date>=lo&&r.date<=hi);
+ console.log(`--- ${lab} (n=${sub.length}, ${sub.filter(r=>r.free).length} free) ---`);
+ console.log(tab(sub));
+ console.log(` Shop-tagged share of cohort: ${sub.length?(100*sub.filter(r=>r.shop).length/sub.length).toFixed(0):0}%\n`);
+ }
+ fs.writeFileSync('verification/tk10836/shoppay-correlation.json',JSON.stringify({generated:new Date().toISOString(),rows},null,2));
+})();
← f849a46 TK-11285: fix a clobber bug in my own commitRows merge, and
·
back to Dw Signup Fulfillment
·
TK-11285: the race was bidirectional — stop the service clob f9de58c →