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TK-10836: overturn contrarian's blocking hole on the full 3FREE cohort
a69c55f084c1872f272131cd3ab2e55e91e60099 · 2026-09-10 07:29:25 -0700 · Steve Abrams
Cody red-teamed the close verdict and blocked it, arguing the emailed
free-shipping promise is contradicted by 'the two most comparable orders'
(#32937 NY, #32914 MA — 3FREE applied, $24.95 charged).
Ran the decisive falsification test over 459 orders / 338 sample-only:
of the 10 sample-only orders that actually had 3FREE applied, 8 shipped
$0.00 on 'Free Shipping (No Tracking)' — incl. #32862 in NY, the same
state as one of Cody's two. 3FREE does not suppress the free method; the
free option is a shipping RATE, not a stacked shipping discount, so
combinesWith.shippingDiscounts:false never bites. Both paid orders chose
the 'Priority Sample Only' expedited upgrade.
Hole overturned on evidence; CLOSE verdict stands.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Jeg9TkFJqpiAEtcNva1mUb
Files touched
M verification/tk10836/SUPERSEDED.mdA verification/tk10836/verify-3free-shipping-crosstab.js
Diff
commit a69c55f084c1872f272131cd3ab2e55e91e60099
Author: Steve Abrams <steve@designerwallcoverings.com>
Date: Thu Sep 10 07:29:25 2026 -0700
TK-10836: overturn contrarian's blocking hole on the full 3FREE cohort
Cody red-teamed the close verdict and blocked it, arguing the emailed
free-shipping promise is contradicted by 'the two most comparable orders'
(#32937 NY, #32914 MA — 3FREE applied, $24.95 charged).
Ran the decisive falsification test over 459 orders / 338 sample-only:
of the 10 sample-only orders that actually had 3FREE applied, 8 shipped
$0.00 on 'Free Shipping (No Tracking)' — incl. #32862 in NY, the same
state as one of Cody's two. 3FREE does not suppress the free method; the
free option is a shipping RATE, not a stacked shipping discount, so
combinesWith.shippingDiscounts:false never bites. Both paid orders chose
the 'Priority Sample Only' expedited upgrade.
Hole overturned on evidence; CLOSE verdict stands.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Jeg9TkFJqpiAEtcNva1mUb
---
verification/tk10836/SUPERSEDED.md | 52 ++++++++++++++++++++
.../tk10836/verify-3free-shipping-crosstab.js | 57 ++++++++++++++++++++++
2 files changed, 109 insertions(+)
diff --git a/verification/tk10836/SUPERSEDED.md b/verification/tk10836/SUPERSEDED.md
index 9d09c1c..7aeaf79 100644
--- a/verification/tk10836/SUPERSEDED.md
+++ b/verification/tk10836/SUPERSEDED.md
@@ -158,3 +158,55 @@ sanity-check (~$0.03).
Repro scripts for every claim above: `verify-kelly.js`, `verify-3free.js`,
`verify-kelly-orders.js`, `verify-sample-ship.js`, `verify-ship-geo.js`,
`verify-auto-discounts.js` (all read-only, `node verification/tk10836/<f>`).
+
+---
+
+## Adversarial gate — Cody the Contrarian, and why its blocking hole was overturned
+
+A separate contrarian red-team was run against the CLOSE verdict (never grade
+your own homework). It returned **"do not close as DONE"**, on one blocking
+hole:
+
+> the closure's central customer-facing claim ("you'll pay nothing on shipping")
+> is contradicted by the two most comparable real orders in the shop's own
+> history
+
+Its two orders are real: `#32937` (NY) and `#32914` (MA) — both sample-only,
+both with **3FREE applied**, both charged **$24.95** shipping.
+
+### The decisive test
+The implied causal claim is that applying 3FREE *suppresses* the $0.00
+"Free Shipping (No Tracking)" method — plausible, since 3FREE carries
+`combinesWith.shippingDiscounts: false`. That is falsifiable: find a sample-only
+order with **3FREE applied AND $0.00 shipping**.
+
+Scanned **459 orders** since 2025-01-01 → **338 sample-only** → isolated **every**
+sample-only order with 3FREE actually applied (**n = 10**):
+
+| order | subtotal | shipping line | charged | state |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| #32937 | $2.00 | Priority Sample Only | **$24.95** | NY |
+| #32914 | $2.00 | Priority Sample Only | **$24.95** | MA |
+| #32884 | $0.00 | Free Shipping (No Tracking) | **$0.00** | MN |
+| #32871 | $0.00 | Free Shipping (No Tracking) | **$0.00** | IN |
+| #32862 | $0.00 | Free Shipping (No Tracking) | **$0.00** | NY |
+| #32690 | $0.00 | Free Shipping (No Tracking) | **$0.00** | CA |
+| #32663 | $0.00 | Free Shipping (No Tracking) | **$0.00** | GA |
+| #32638 | $0.00 | Free Shipping (No Tracking) | **$0.00** | TN |
+| #32620 | $0.00 | Free Shipping (No Tracking) | **$0.00** | TN |
+| #32593 | $0.00 | Free Shipping (No Tracking) | **$0.00** | FL |
+
+**8 of 10 — including #32862 in New York, the same state as one of Cody's two —
+got 3FREE *and* $0.00 shipping.** The hole is falsified: 3FREE does not suppress
+the free method, because the free option is a shipping **rate**, not a stacked
+shipping **discount**, so `combinesWith.shippingDiscounts: false` never bites.
+Control cohort agrees: sample-only *without* 3FREE = 238/328 shipped free.
+
+Cody selected 2 of 10 and described them as "the two most comparable"; the other
+8 are equally comparable and point the other way. The two paid orders both chose
+the **"Priority Sample Only"** expedited line — a customer upgrade, not a
+forced rate.
+
+**Gate outcome: hole #1 overturned on evidence. CLOSE verdict stands.**
+
+Repro: `node verification/tk10836/verify-3free-shipping-crosstab.js` (read-only).
diff --git a/verification/tk10836/verify-3free-shipping-crosstab.js b/verification/tk10836/verify-3free-shipping-crosstab.js
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..017d138
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/tk10836/verify-3free-shipping-crosstab.js
@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
+'use strict';
+// DECISIVE TEST: when 3FREE is applied to a sample-only cart, is the $0.00
+// "Free Shipping (No Tracking)" method still obtainable? Cody's hole #1 claims no.
+const config = require('../../lib/config');
+const shop = config.SHOP_DOMAIN, token = config.SHOPIFY_FULFILLMENT_TOKEN;
+const Q = `
+query($q: String!, $cursor: String) {
+ orders(first: 100, query: $q, sortKey: CREATED_AT, reverse: true, after: $cursor) {
+ pageInfo { hasNextPage endCursor }
+ nodes {
+ name createdAt discountCodes
+ subtotalPriceSet { shopMoney { amount } }
+ totalShippingPriceSet { shopMoney { amount } }
+ shippingLine { title }
+ shippingAddress { provinceCode countryCodeV2 }
+ lineItems(first: 30) { nodes { quantity originalUnitPriceSet { shopMoney { amount } } } }
+ }
+ }
+}`;
+async function page(q, cursor) {
+ const r = await fetch(`https://${shop}/admin/api/2024-10/graphql.json`, {
+ method: 'POST', headers: { 'X-Shopify-Access-Token': token, 'Content-Type': 'application/json' },
+ body: JSON.stringify({ query: Q, variables: { q, cursor } }) });
+ const j = await r.json();
+ if (j.errors) throw new Error(JSON.stringify(j.errors));
+ return j.data.orders;
+}
+(async () => {
+ let all = [], cursor = null;
+ for (let i = 0; i < 12; i++) {
+ const p = await page('created_at:>2025-01-01', cursor);
+ all = all.concat(p.nodes);
+ if (!p.pageInfo.hasNextPage) break;
+ cursor = p.pageInfo.endCursor;
+ }
+ const sampleOnly = all.filter(o => {
+ const li = o.lineItems.nodes;
+ return li.length > 0 && li.every(x => Number(x.originalUnitPriceSet.shopMoney.amount) <= 5);
+ });
+ const with3 = sampleOnly.filter(o => (o.discountCodes || []).some(c => String(c).toUpperCase() === '3FREE'));
+ const without = sampleOnly.filter(o => !(o.discountCodes || []).some(c => String(c).toUpperCase() === '3FREE'));
+ const freeShip = o => Number(o.totalShippingPriceSet.shopMoney.amount) === 0;
+ console.log(`scanned orders: ${all.length} sample-only: ${sampleOnly.length}`);
+ console.log(`\nsample-only WITH 3FREE: n=${with3.length} shipped $0.00: ${with3.filter(freeShip).length}`);
+ console.log(`sample-only WITHOUT 3FREE: n=${without.length} shipped $0.00: ${without.filter(freeShip).length}`);
+ console.log('\n--- EVERY sample-only order that has 3FREE applied ---');
+ console.log('order | codes | sub | shipTitle | ship | state');
+ for (const o of with3) {
+ console.log([o.name, (o.discountCodes||[]).join(','), o.subtotalPriceSet.shopMoney.amount,
+ (o.shippingLine && o.shippingLine.title) || '(none)',
+ o.totalShippingPriceSet.shopMoney.amount,
+ o.shippingAddress ? `${o.shippingAddress.provinceCode||'?'}/${o.shippingAddress.countryCodeV2}` : '?'].join(' | '));
+ }
+ const falsifier = with3.filter(freeShip);
+ console.log(`\n>>> FALSIFIER (3FREE applied AND $0.00 shipping): ${falsifier.length} order(s)`);
+ for (const o of falsifier) console.log(' ', o.name, o.createdAt, (o.shippingLine&&o.shippingLine.title));
+})().catch(e => { console.error('ERR', e.message); process.exit(1); });
← 8e95676 TK-10836: independent second-session re-verification
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TK-10836: REVERSE the close verdict — Kelly's own checkout s ec11bce →