Add FINDINGS.md: written analysis (2020 vs 2023 dip, CD-11/LAX dominance, top-10 contractor concentration) with method + honesty notes

d130dd70f70e41cd10e230f8022bb0b4c76d4c42 · 2026-08-10 13:13:58 -0700 · Steve Abrams
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A FINDINGS.md
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commit d130dd70f70e41cd10e230f8022bb0b4c76d4c42
Author: Steve Abrams <steve@designerwallcoverings.com>
Date:   Mon Aug 10 13:13:58 2026 -0700

    Add FINDINGS.md: written analysis (2020 vs 2023 dip, CD-11/LAX dominance, top-10 contractor concentration) with method + honesty notes
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+# Findings — Major LA Building Permits, 2013–2023
+
+Analysis of **4,028 major building permits** (new construction + additions valued over
+$1,000,000) issued by the City of Los Angeles, **2013-01-02 through 2023-05-17**, sourced
+free from the LA Open Data Portal (LADBS dataset `d9aa-v8bm`). Reproduce with:
+`python3 pull_permits.py && python3 enrich_contractors.py && python3 summary.py`.
+
+## Headline numbers
+- **Total declared construction value: $36.1 billion** across 4,028 permits.
+- **Average project: ~$9.0 million.**
+- **1,056 unique contractors** (excluding the "owner-builder" placeholder).
+- Permit mix: **Bldg-New = 3,597 permits / $31.8B** (88% of value); Bldg-Addition = 431 / $4.3B.
+
+## Finding 1 — Two dips, two different causes (read the data carefully)
+Annual value rose from ~$2.4B (2013) to a peak of **$4.35B in 2018**, then shows two declines
+that look similar but are **not** the same thing:
+
+| Year | Permits | Value | Cause |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| 2018 | 509 | $4.35B | peak |
+| **2020** | 279 | $3.53B | **real decline** — COVID-19 slowed permitting activity |
+| **2023** | 126 | $0.80B | **artifact** — data ends May 17, 2023 (only ~4.5 months captured) |
+
+The 2020 dip is a genuine economic signal; the 2023 dip is **truncation**, not a trend. Any
+year-over-year claim must exclude or annotate 2023, or it will falsely read as a market collapse.
+
+## Finding 2 — Council District 11 dominates, driven by LAX
+Ranking build value by City Council district concentrates sharply on the Westside:
+
+| District | Permits | Value | Note |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| **CD 11** | 788 | **$7.31B** | Westside / Venice / **LAX** |
+| CD 14 | 218 | $6.06B | Downtown / Eastside |
+| CD 5 | 665 | $3.60B | Westside |
+| CD 13 | 333 | $3.39B | Hollywood / Silver Lake |
+
+CD 11's lead is powered by the **LAX terminal megaprojects** — the two largest single permits in
+the entire dataset are there: **$554M and $296M** (both Hensel Phelps) at 400 / 100 World Way.
+This ties LA's biggest construction spend to a specific piece of political geography.
+
+## Finding 3 — A few general contractors dominate the top
+The market has a classic **long-tail** shape: 1,056 contractors, but the **top 10 firms alone
+account for ~$7.56B (≈21%)** of all $36.1B.
+
+| # | Contractor | Total value | Permits |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| 1 | Hensel Phelps Construction Co | $1.61B | 10 |
+| 2 | Hathaway Dinwiddie Construction | $1.07B | 17 |
+| 3 | Webcor Construction LP | $1.05B | 14 |
+| 4 | Swinerton Builders | $0.68B | 23 |
+| 5 | Onni Contracting (California) Inc | $0.58B | 5 |
+
+Note the two business models visible in the numbers: **Hensel Phelps = few, huge jobs**
+(10 permits, $161M avg) vs **Swinerton = many, smaller jobs** (23 permits, $30M avg).
+
+## Method & honesty notes
+- **Source:** public City of LA open data (LADBS `d9aa-v8bm`) — a stable 2013–2023 snapshot.
+  No paid databases used. Contractor entity enrichment (CA SOS / CSLB) is a guided lookup, not
+  auto-scraped, because those sites are bot-protected or token-gated.
+- **"OWNER-BUILDER"** is excluded from the *contractor* ranking (it is a placeholder for owners
+  self-permitting, not a single firm) but retained in *biggest single projects*, where it is the
+  legitimate permit-holder (e.g. the $300M job at 1950 Ave of the Stars).
+- **Valuation** is the *declared* value on the permit, not final construction cost.
+- Scope is permits **over $1M, new + additions only** — small permits and alterations/repairs
+  are excluded by design to focus on major construction.
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