`FINDINGS.md`

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# Findings — Major LA Building Permits, 2013–2023

Analysis of **4,028 major building permits** (new construction + additions valued over
$1,000,000) issued by the City of Los Angeles, **2013-01-02 through 2023-05-17**, sourced
free from the LA Open Data Portal (LADBS dataset `d9aa-v8bm`). Reproduce with:
`python3 pull_permits.py && python3 enrich_contractors.py && python3 summary.py`.

## Headline numbers
- **Total declared construction value: $36.1 billion** across 4,028 permits.
- **Average project: ~$9.0 million.**
- **1,056 unique contractors** (excluding the "owner-builder" placeholder).
- Permit mix: **Bldg-New = 3,597 permits / $31.8B** (88% of value); Bldg-Addition = 431 / $4.3B.

## Finding 1 — Two dips, two different causes (read the data carefully)
Annual value rose from ~$2.4B (2013) to a peak of **$4.35B in 2018**, then shows two declines
that look similar but are **not** the same thing:

| Year | Permits | Value | Cause |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 509 | $4.35B | peak |
| **2020** | 279 | $3.53B | **real decline** — COVID-19 slowed permitting activity |
| **2023** | 126 | $0.80B | **artifact** — data ends May 17, 2023 (only ~4.5 months captured) |

The 2020 dip is a genuine economic signal; the 2023 dip is **truncation**, not a trend. Any
year-over-year claim must exclude or annotate 2023, or it will falsely read as a market collapse.

## Finding 2 — Council District 11 dominates, driven by LAX
Ranking build value by City Council district concentrates sharply on the Westside:

| District | Permits | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| **CD 11** | 788 | **$7.31B** | Westside / Venice / **LAX** |
| CD 14 | 218 | $6.06B | Downtown / Eastside |
| CD 5 | 665 | $3.60B | Westside |
| CD 13 | 333 | $3.39B | Hollywood / Silver Lake |

CD 11's lead is powered by the **LAX terminal megaprojects** — the two largest single permits in
the entire dataset are there: **$554M and $296M** (both Hensel Phelps) at 400 / 100 World Way.
This ties LA's biggest construction spend to a specific piece of political geography.

## Finding 3 — A few general contractors dominate the top
The market has a classic **long-tail** shape: 1,056 contractors, but the **top 10 firms alone
account for ~$7.56B (≈21%)** of all $36.1B.

| # | Contractor | Total value | Permits |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hensel Phelps Construction Co | $1.61B | 10 |
| 2 | Hathaway Dinwiddie Construction | $1.07B | 17 |
| 3 | Webcor Construction LP | $1.05B | 14 |
| 4 | Swinerton Builders | $0.68B | 23 |
| 5 | Onni Contracting (California) Inc | $0.58B | 5 |

Note the two business models visible in the numbers: **Hensel Phelps = few, huge jobs**
(10 permits, $161M avg) vs **Swinerton = many, smaller jobs** (23 permits, $30M avg).

## Data availability — live vs. named (important)
The City of LA **stopped publishing contractor/applicant/principal NAMES in its open
permit feed after 2023-05-19** (a privacy/policy change). As of Aug 2026:
- The **only openly-updated feed** (`pi9x-tg5x`, refreshed to within ~2 days) carries
  **valuation / type / address / APN / council district / status but NO names.**
- Every **name-bearing** dataset (`d9aa-v8bm`, `hbkd-qubn`, `jqz4-22tu`) is **frozen at
  2023-05-19**; the previously-open `nbyu-2ha9` is now login-gated.

So this project ships two pullers: `pull_permits.py` (named, 2013–2023 snapshot) and
`pull_permits_live.py` (current, nameless — enrich the owner/developer live via the LA
County Assessor by APN). No free source is both live AND contractor-named.

## Method & honesty notes
- **Source:** public City of LA open data (LADBS `d9aa-v8bm`) — a stable 2013–2023 snapshot.
  No paid databases used. Contractor entity enrichment (CA SOS / CSLB) is a guided lookup, not
  auto-scraped, because those sites are bot-protected or token-gated.
- **"OWNER-BUILDER"** is excluded from the *contractor* ranking (it is a placeholder for owners
  self-permitting, not a single firm) but retained in *biggest single projects*, where it is the
  legitimate permit-holder (e.g. the $300M job at 1950 Ave of the Stars).
- **Valuation** is the *declared* value on the permit, not final construction cost.
- Scope is permits **over $1M, new + additions only** — small permits and alterations/repairs
  are excluded by design to focus on major construction.