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M3: ACS 2023 5-yr county demographics (19.3k rows), FHFA HPI all-transactions metro+state w/ MSAD primary-division crosswalk (5.2k rows), derived affordability/rent_yield/zhvi_yoy (9k rows), /api/market endpoint, market.html detail page w/ vendored uPlot, map click wired
aae13b5538e7786e38c00ac03c9c2ac31e72bc8f · 2026-07-21 12:55:24 -0700 · Steve Abrams
Files touched
M SOURCES.mdM data/crosswalk-unmatched.jsonM public/index.htmlA public/market.htmlA public/vendor/uPlot.iife.min.jsA public/vendor/uPlot.min.cssA src/ingest/census_acs.tsA src/ingest/derive_metrics.tsA src/ingest/fhfa_hpi.tsM src/server/index.ts
Diff
commit aae13b5538e7786e38c00ac03c9c2ac31e72bc8f
Author: Steve Abrams <steve@designerwallcoverings.com>
Date: Tue Jul 21 12:55:24 2026 -0700
M3: ACS 2023 5-yr county demographics (19.3k rows), FHFA HPI all-transactions metro+state w/ MSAD primary-division crosswalk (5.2k rows), derived affordability/rent_yield/zhvi_yoy (9k rows), /api/market endpoint, market.html detail page w/ vendored uPlot, map click wired
---
SOURCES.md | 18 +++++
data/crosswalk-unmatched.json | 122 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
public/index.html | 6 +-
public/market.html | 164 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
public/vendor/uPlot.iife.min.js | 2 +
public/vendor/uPlot.min.css | 1 +
src/ingest/census_acs.ts | 116 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
src/ingest/derive_metrics.ts | 85 +++++++++++++++++++++
src/ingest/fhfa_hpi.ts | 151 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
src/server/index.ts | 96 +++++++++++++++++++++++
10 files changed, 756 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-)
diff --git a/SOURCES.md b/SOURCES.md
index 9925db0..b8e02bf 100644
--- a/SOURCES.md
+++ b/SOURCES.md
@@ -58,3 +58,21 @@ Metrics ingested per row: `median_sale_price`, `median_sale_price_yoy`, `homes_s
- `data/crosswalk-overrides.json` — manual overrides consulted BEFORE fuzzy matching. Shape: `{ "zillow": { "<RegionName>": "<canonical_key>" }, "redfin": { "<REGION or TABLE_ID>": "<canonical_key>" } }`.
- `data/crosswalk-unmatched.json` — written by each run; unmatched regions are SKIPPED, never guessed.
+
+## Census ACS 5-year 2023 (api.census.gov) — source `acs` (M3, probed 2026-07-21)
+
+- URL: `https://api.census.gov/data/2023/acs/acs5?get=NAME,B19013_001E,B25077_001E,B25064_001E,B01003_001E,B25002_001E,B25002_003E,B25003_001E,B25003_003E&for=county:*`
+- **Keyless FAILED**: the keyless call 302-redirects to `api.census.gov/data/missing_key.html` — a key is now required even at low volume. Ran with `CENSUS_API_KEY` from `~/Projects/secrets-manager/.env` → 200, 3,223 rows (header + 3,222 counties), every county FIPS matched.
+- Format: JSON array-of-arrays, row 0 = header, then `[NAME, ...values, state, county]`. FIPS = `state`(2) + `county`(3) zero-padded.
+- Metrics (period `2023-07-01`): median_hh_income (B19013), median_home_value_acs (B25077), median_gross_rent (B25064), population (B01003, also written to `region.population`), vacancy_rate (B25002_003/B25002_001), renter_share (B25003_003/B25003_001). Negative sentinels (e.g. -666666666) skipped.
+
+## FHFA HPI (fhfa.gov) — source `fhfa` (M3, probed 2026-07-21)
+
+- **URL DRIFT**: the documented `https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Documents/HPI/HPI_master.csv` → 404 (Drupal 11 rebuild). Current path: `https://www.fhfa.gov/hpi/download/monthly/hpi_master.csv` → 200, text/csv, ~18.9 MB (serves the full master file despite the `/monthly/` path segment).
+- **Flavor choice**: `purchase-only` quarterly covers only **100** MSA place_ids vs **410** for `all-transactions` → we use `hpi_type='traditional'`, `hpi_flavor='all-transactions'`, `frequency='quarterly'`, levels `MSA` + `State`. Value = `index_nsa` (index_sa blank for many MSAs).
+- Metro crosswalk: `place_id` IS the CBSA code for MSA rows (verified against region.cbsa_code, 373 direct matches). For the largest metros FHFA lists **(MSAD) divisions instead of the parent CBSA** — the primary division (first-named city == parent CBSA first city, e.g. `31084 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA (MSAD)` → `metro:31080`) is matched via the metro city-prefix matcher (match_method `msad_primary_city`, never overwrites a direct cbsa match); 24 secondary divisions (Anaheim, Camden, Cambridge…) stay unmatched-and-skipped by design. Total metro coverage: 386/935. State: 2-letter `place_id` → region.state_code (51/51).
+- Period = quarter-end date (Q1→03-31 … Q4→12-31), last 12 quarters kept. Latest at probe: 2026Q1.
+
+## Derived metrics — source `derived` (M3)
+
+- `affordability` = latest zhvi / ACS median_hh_income (annual ACS joins to any zhvi month); `rent_yield` = (zori×12)/zhvi at latest common period; `zhvi_yoy` = zhvi latest vs 12 months prior (fraction). period = the zhvi period used. Counts on first run: affordability 3,063 · rent_yield 2,047 · zhvi_yoy 3,918.
diff --git a/data/crosswalk-unmatched.json b/data/crosswalk-unmatched.json
index 61f334b..fff4b8b 100644
--- a/data/crosswalk-unmatched.json
+++ b/data/crosswalk-unmatched.json
@@ -999,5 +999,127 @@
"region": "West Point, MS metro area",
"stateCode": "MS"
}
+ ],
+ "fhfa": [
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "11244",
+ "place_name": "Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "11694",
+ "place_name": "Arlington-Alexandria-Reston, VA-WV (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "15764",
+ "place_name": "Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "15804",
+ "place_name": "Camden, NJ (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "20994",
+ "place_name": "Elgin, IL (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "21794",
+ "place_name": "Everett, WA (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "22744",
+ "place_name": "Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Sunrise, FL (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "23104",
+ "place_name": "Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine, TX (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "23224",
+ "place_name": "Frederick-Gaithersburg-Bethesda, MD (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "29404",
+ "place_name": "Lake County, IL (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "29414",
+ "place_name": "Lake County-Porter County-Jasper County, IN (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "29484",
+ "place_name": "Lakewood-New Brunswick, NJ (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "31924",
+ "place_name": "Marietta, GA (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "33874",
+ "place_name": "Montgomery County-Bucks County-Chester County, PA (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "35004",
+ "place_name": "Nassau County-Suffolk County, NY (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "35084",
+ "place_name": "Newark, NJ (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "36084",
+ "place_name": "Oakland-Fremont-Berkeley, CA (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "40484",
+ "place_name": "Rockingham County-Strafford County, NH (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "41304",
+ "place_name": "St. Petersburg-Clearwater-Largo, FL (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "42034",
+ "place_name": "San Rafael, CA (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "45104",
+ "place_name": "Tacoma-Lakewood, WA (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "47664",
+ "place_name": "Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "48424",
+ "place_name": "West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL (MSAD)"
+ },
+ {
+ "level": "MSA",
+ "place_id": "48864",
+ "place_name": "Wilmington, DE-MD-NJ (MSAD)"
+ }
]
}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/public/index.html b/public/index.html
index 874e5e8..b7a6ba2 100644
--- a/public/index.html
+++ b/public/index.html
@@ -157,11 +157,7 @@ function onEachFeature(f, layer){
).openTooltip();
});
layer.on('mouseout', () => { geoLayer.resetStyle(layer); layer.closeTooltip(); });
- layer.on('click', () => {
- const url = `/market.html?key=county:${f.id}`;
- // detail page lands in M3 — href is wired, alert placeholder until then
- alert(`${f.properties.NAME} ${f.properties.LSAD || 'County'}\nDetail page lands in M3:\n${url}`);
- });
+ layer.on('click', () => { location.href = `/market.html?key=county:${f.id}`; });
}
(async function init(){
diff --git a/public/market.html b/public/market.html
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..ccce346
--- /dev/null
+++ b/public/market.html
@@ -0,0 +1,164 @@
+<!doctype html>
+<html lang="en">
+<head>
+<meta charset="utf-8">
+<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
+<title>USRealEstate — Market Detail</title>
+<link rel="stylesheet" href="/vendor/uPlot.min.css">
+<style>
+ :root{--bg:#0a0d13;--panel:#11151d;--line:#222936;--fg:#e8ecf2;--muted:#8a93a3;--gold:#c8a24b;
+ --green:#5fae7c;--red:#c96a5a;}
+ *{box-sizing:border-box;}
+ html,body{margin:0;background:var(--bg);color:var(--fg);
+ font:14px/1.5 -apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;}
+ #topbar{position:sticky;top:0;z-index:1000;display:flex;align-items:center;gap:18px;
+ padding:10px 18px;background:rgba(17,21,29,.94);border-bottom:1px solid var(--line);backdrop-filter:blur(6px);}
+ #topbar .brand{font-size:16px;font-weight:700;white-space:nowrap;}
+ #topbar .brand b{color:var(--gold);}
+ nav{display:flex;gap:14px;font-size:13px;}
+ nav a{color:var(--muted);text-decoration:none;} nav a:hover,nav a.active{color:var(--gold);}
+ main{max-width:1180px;margin:0 auto;padding:24px 18px 60px;}
+ #hdr{display:flex;align-items:baseline;gap:18px;flex-wrap:wrap;margin-bottom:8px;}
+ #hdr h1{margin:0;font-size:26px;font-weight:700;}
+ #hdr .st{color:var(--muted);font-size:15px;}
+ #hdr .zhvi{font-size:22px;color:var(--gold);font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums;font-weight:700;}
+ .badge{display:inline-block;padding:3px 10px;border-radius:14px;font-size:12px;font-weight:700;
+ font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums;border:1px solid var(--line);}
+ .badge.up{color:var(--green);border-color:var(--green);}
+ .badge.down{color:var(--red);border-color:var(--red);}
+ #sub{color:var(--muted);font-size:12px;margin-bottom:20px;}
+ .grid2{display:grid;grid-template-columns:repeat(auto-fit,minmax(440px,1fr));gap:16px;}
+ .panel{background:var(--panel);border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:12px;padding:14px 16px;}
+ .panel h3{margin:0 0 8px;font-size:13px;color:var(--gold);font-weight:700;text-transform:uppercase;
+ letter-spacing:.5px;}
+ .panel .nodata{color:var(--muted);font-size:12px;padding:30px 0;text-align:center;}
+ #stats{display:grid;grid-template-columns:repeat(auto-fill,minmax(150px,1fr));gap:10px;}
+ .stat{background:var(--bg);border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:10px;padding:10px 12px;}
+ .stat .k{font-size:11px;color:var(--muted);text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.4px;}
+ .stat .v{font-size:17px;font-weight:700;font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums;margin-top:2px;}
+ #foot{margin-top:22px;color:var(--muted);font-size:11px;}
+ .u-legend{color:var(--muted);font-size:11px;}
+ .u-legend .u-label{color:var(--muted);}
+</style>
+</head>
+<body>
+<div id="topbar">
+ <div class="brand"><b>USRealEstate</b> — Market Detail</div>
+ <nav>
+ <a href="/">Map</a>
+ <a href="/markets.html">Markets</a>
+ <a href="/watchlist.html">Watchlist</a>
+ <a href="/admin.html">Admin</a>
+ </nav>
+</div>
+<main>
+ <div id="hdr"><h1>Loading…</h1></div>
+ <div id="sub"></div>
+ <div class="grid2" id="charts">
+ <div class="panel"><h3>ZHVI — Home Value Index</h3><div id="c_zhvi"></div></div>
+ <div class="panel"><h3>Median Sale Price</h3><div id="c_msp"></div></div>
+ <div class="panel"><h3>Inventory + New Listings</h3><div id="c_inv"></div></div>
+ <div class="panel"><h3>Days on Market + Months of Supply</h3><div id="c_dom"></div></div>
+ <div class="panel"><h3>ZORI — Observed Rent Index</h3><div id="c_zori"></div></div>
+ <div class="panel"><h3>FHFA HPI (all-transactions, NSA)</h3><div id="c_hpi"></div></div>
+ </div>
+ <div class="panel" style="margin-top:16px;">
+ <h3>Demographics & Derived</h3>
+ <div id="stats"></div>
+ </div>
+ <div class="panel" style="margin-top:16px;">
+ <h3>Parcels</h3>
+ <div class="nodata">Parcels — county data not yet loaded</div>
+ </div>
+ <div id="foot">Income, rent, population, vacancy, renter share: ACS 2023 5-yr vintage.
+ ZHVI/ZORI: Zillow Research. Sale metrics: Redfin Data Center. HPI: FHFA.</div>
+</main>
+
+<script src="/vendor/uPlot.iife.min.js"></script>
+<script>
+const qs = new URLSearchParams(location.search);
+const key = qs.get('key') || 'county:06037';
+
+const usd0 = v => v == null ? '—' : '$' + Math.round(v).toLocaleString();
+const int0 = v => v == null ? '—' : Math.round(v).toLocaleString();
+const pct1 = v => v == null ? '—' : (v * 100).toFixed(1) + '%';
+const num2 = v => v == null ? '—' : (+v).toFixed(2);
+
+const AXIS = { stroke: '#8a93a3', grid: { stroke: '#222936', width: 1 }, ticks: { stroke: '#222936' },
+ font: '11px -apple-system, Segoe UI, Roboto, sans-serif' };
+
+function toSeries(pairs){
+ return [pairs.map(p => new Date(p[0] + 'T00:00:00Z').getTime() / 1000), pairs.map(p => p[1])];
+}
+
+function chart(elId, entries, fmt){
+ // entries: [{label, pairs, color, dash?}] — aligned onto the union of timestamps
+ const el = document.getElementById(elId);
+ const present = entries.filter(e => e.pairs && e.pairs.length);
+ if (!present.length){ el.innerHTML = '<div class="nodata">no data for this region</div>'; return; }
+ const tsSet = new Set();
+ for (const e of present) for (const p of e.pairs) tsSet.add(new Date(p[0] + 'T00:00:00Z').getTime() / 1000);
+ const ts = [...tsSet].sort((a, b) => a - b);
+ const idx = new Map(ts.map((t, i) => [t, i]));
+ const data = [ts];
+ for (const e of present){
+ const col = new Array(ts.length).fill(null);
+ for (const p of e.pairs) col[idx.get(new Date(p[0] + 'T00:00:00Z').getTime() / 1000)] = p[1];
+ data.push(col);
+ }
+ const w = el.closest('.panel').clientWidth - 32;
+ new uPlot({
+ width: Math.max(320, w), height: 220,
+ cursor: { points: { size: 6 } },
+ scales: { x: { time: true } },
+ axes: [ { ...AXIS }, { ...AXIS, values: (u, vals) => vals.map(v => fmt(v)) } ],
+ series: [ {},
+ ...present.map(e => ({ label: e.label, stroke: e.color, width: 2, dash: e.dash,
+ points: { show: false }, value: (u, v) => fmt(v) })) ],
+ }, data, el);
+}
+
+(async function init(){
+ const res = await fetch('/api/market?key=' + encodeURIComponent(key));
+ if (!res.ok){ document.querySelector('#hdr h1').textContent = 'Region not found: ' + key; return; }
+ const d = await res.json();
+ const { region, series, latest } = d;
+
+ document.title = 'USRealEstate — ' + region.name;
+ const hdr = document.getElementById('hdr');
+ const yoy = latest.zhvi_yoy;
+ hdr.innerHTML = `<h1>${region.name}</h1><span class="st">${region.state_code || ''} · ${region.region_type}</span>` +
+ `<span class="zhvi">${usd0(latest.zhvi)}</span>` +
+ (yoy != null ? `<span class="badge ${yoy >= 0 ? 'up' : 'down'}">${yoy >= 0 ? '▲' : '▼'} ${pct1(Math.abs(yoy))} YoY</span>` : '');
+ document.getElementById('sub').textContent =
+ `${region.canonical_key} · population ${int0(region.population)} · 36-month history, all sources`;
+
+ chart('c_zhvi', [{ label: 'ZHVI', pairs: series.zhvi, color: '#c8a24b' }], usd0);
+ chart('c_msp', [{ label: 'Median Sale', pairs: series.median_sale_price, color: '#5f9ac0' }], usd0);
+ chart('c_inv', [
+ { label: 'Inventory', pairs: series.inventory, color: '#c8a24b' },
+ { label: 'New Listings', pairs: series.new_listings, color: '#5fae7c' },
+ ], int0);
+ chart('c_dom', [
+ { label: 'DOM', pairs: series.dom, color: '#c96a5a' },
+ { label: 'Months Supply', pairs: series.months_of_supply, color: '#8a93a3', dash: [5, 5] },
+ ], v => v == null ? '—' : (+v).toFixed(1));
+ chart('c_zori', [{ label: 'ZORI', pairs: series.zori, color: '#5fae7c' }], usd0);
+ chart('c_hpi', [{ label: 'HPI', pairs: series.hpi, color: '#b59b5c' }], v => v == null ? '—' : Math.round(v));
+
+ const STATS = [
+ ['Median HH Income', usd0(latest.median_hh_income)],
+ ['Median Gross Rent', usd0(latest.median_gross_rent)],
+ ['Population', int0(latest.population ?? region.population)],
+ ['Vacancy Rate', pct1(latest.vacancy_rate)],
+ ['Renter Share', pct1(latest.renter_share)],
+ ['Affordability (ZHVI/Income)', num2(latest.affordability)],
+ ['Rent Yield (ZORI×12/ZHVI)', pct1(latest.rent_yield)],
+ ['Sale-to-List', pct1(latest.sale_to_list)],
+ ];
+ document.getElementById('stats').innerHTML = STATS.map(([k, v]) =>
+ `<div class="stat"><div class="k">${k}</div><div class="v">${v}</div></div>`).join('');
+})();
+</script>
+</body>
+</html>
diff --git a/public/vendor/uPlot.iife.min.js b/public/vendor/uPlot.iife.min.js
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..047f29b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/public/vendor/uPlot.iife.min.js
@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+/*! https://github.com/leeoniya/uPlot (v1.6.32) */
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diff --git a/public/vendor/uPlot.min.css b/public/vendor/uPlot.min.css
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..a030d63
--- /dev/null
+++ b/public/vendor/uPlot.min.css
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+.uplot, .uplot *, .uplot *::before, .uplot *::after {box-sizing: border-box;}.uplot {font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji";line-height: 1.5;width: min-content;}.u-title {text-align: center;font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;}.u-wrap {position: relative;user-select: none;}.u-over, .u-under {position: absolute;}.u-under {overflow: hidden;}.uplot canvas {display: block;position: relative;width: 100%;height: 100%;}.u-axis {position: absolute;}.u-legend {font-size: 14px;margin: auto;text-align: center;}.u-inline {display: block;}.u-inline * {display: inline-block;}.u-inline tr {margin-right: 16px;}.u-legend th {font-weight: 600;}.u-legend th > * {vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;}.u-legend .u-marker {width: 1em;height: 1em;margin-right: 4px;background-clip: padding-box !important;}.u-inline.u-live th::after {content: ":";vertical-align: middle;}.u-inline:not(.u-live) .u-value {display: none;}.u-series > * {padding: 4px;}.u-series th {cursor: pointer;}.u-legend .u-off > * {opacity: 0.3;}.u-select {background: rgba(0,0,0,0.07);position: absolute;pointer-events: none;}.u-cursor-x, .u-cursor-y {position: absolute;left: 0;top: 0;pointer-events: none;will-change: transform;}.u-hz .u-cursor-x, .u-vt .u-cursor-y {height: 100%;border-right: 1px dashed #607D8B;}.u-hz .u-cursor-y, .u-vt .u-cursor-x {width: 100%;border-bottom: 1px dashed #607D8B;}.u-cursor-pt {position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;border-radius: 50%;border: 0 solid;pointer-events: none;will-change: transform;/*this has to be !important since we set inline "background" shorthand */background-clip: padding-box !important;}.u-axis.u-off, .u-select.u-off, .u-cursor-x.u-off, .u-cursor-y.u-off, .u-cursor-pt.u-off {display: none;}
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diff --git a/src/ingest/census_acs.ts b/src/ingest/census_acs.ts
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..dc993e8
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/ingest/census_acs.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,116 @@
+/**
+ * Census ACS 5-year (2023 vintage) — one call for all counties.
+ * Metrics -> metric_series source 'acs', period 2023-07-01 (mid-vintage anchor).
+ * Also updates region.population from B01003.
+ * Keyless was probed 2026-07-21 and REDIRECTS to missing_key.html — a key is required;
+ * we read CENSUS_API_KEY from ./.env then ~/Projects/secrets-manager/.env.
+ */
+import { readFileSync, existsSync } from 'node:fs';
+import { join } from 'node:path';
+import { homedir } from 'node:os';
+import { query, pool } from '../../db/pool.ts';
+import { openRun, closeRun } from './run.ts';
+import { loadRegionMaps, upsertMetricRows, UnmatchedCollector, type MetricRow } from './crosswalk.ts';
+
+const ACS_PERIOD = '2023-07-01';
+const SOURCE = 'acs';
+const VARS = 'NAME,B19013_001E,B25077_001E,B25064_001E,B01003_001E,B25002_001E,B25002_003E,B25003_001E,B25003_003E';
+const BASE = `https://api.census.gov/data/2023/acs/acs5?get=${VARS}&for=county:*`;
+
+function findCensusKey(): string | null {
+ if (process.env.CENSUS_API_KEY) return process.env.CENSUS_API_KEY;
+ for (const p of [join(process.cwd(), '.env'), join(homedir(), 'Projects', 'secrets-manager', '.env')]) {
+ if (!existsSync(p)) continue;
+ const m = readFileSync(p, 'utf8').match(/^CENSUS_API_KEY=(.+)$/m);
+ if (m) return m[1].trim().replace(/^["']|["']$/g, '');
+ }
+ return null;
+}
+
+/** Census sentinel negatives (-666666666 etc.) and null -> undefined. */
+function num(v: string | null): number | undefined {
+ if (v == null || v === '') return undefined;
+ const n = Number(v);
+ if (!Number.isFinite(n) || n < 0) return undefined;
+ return n;
+}
+
+async function main() {
+ const key = findCensusKey();
+ const url = key ? `${BASE}&key=${key}` : BASE;
+ const runId = await openRun(SOURCE, BASE);
+ try {
+ const res = await fetch(url, { redirect: 'follow' });
+ if (!res.ok) throw new Error(`ACS fetch failed: ${res.status} ${res.statusText}`);
+ if (res.url.includes('missing_key')) throw new Error('ACS redirected to missing_key.html — CENSUS_API_KEY required/invalid');
+ const data: string[][] = await res.json();
+ if (!Array.isArray(data) || data.length < 2) throw new Error(`ACS returned ${Array.isArray(data) ? data.length : 0} rows`);
+
+ const header = data[0];
+ const col = (name: string) => {
+ const i = header.indexOf(name);
+ if (i < 0) throw new Error(`ACS header missing ${name}: ${header.join(',')}`);
+ return i;
+ };
+ const iIncome = col('B19013_001E'), iValue = col('B25077_001E'), iRent = col('B25064_001E'),
+ iPop = col('B01003_001E'), iUnits = col('B25002_001E'), iVacant = col('B25002_003E'),
+ iOccTot = col('B25003_001E'), iRenter = col('B25003_003E'),
+ iState = col('state'), iCounty = col('county'), iName = col('NAME');
+
+ const maps = await loadRegionMaps();
+ const unmatched = new UnmatchedCollector();
+ const rows: MetricRow[] = [];
+ const popUpdates: { regionId: number; population: number }[] = [];
+ let skipped = 0;
+
+ for (const r of data.slice(1)) {
+ const fips = r[iState].padStart(2, '0') + r[iCounty].padStart(3, '0');
+ const region = maps.byFips.get(fips);
+ if (!region) {
+ unmatched.add(SOURCE, { fips, name: r[iName] });
+ skipped++;
+ continue;
+ }
+ const push = (metric: string, value: number | undefined) => {
+ if (value !== undefined) rows.push({ regionId: region.id, source: SOURCE, metric, period: ACS_PERIOD, value });
+ };
+ push('median_hh_income', num(r[iIncome]));
+ push('median_home_value_acs', num(r[iValue]));
+ push('median_gross_rent', num(r[iRent]));
+ const pop = num(r[iPop]);
+ push('population', pop);
+ if (pop !== undefined) popUpdates.push({ regionId: region.id, population: pop });
+ const units = num(r[iUnits]), vacant = num(r[iVacant]);
+ if (units !== undefined && units > 0 && vacant !== undefined) push('vacancy_rate', vacant / units);
+ const occ = num(r[iOccTot]), renter = num(r[iRenter]);
+ if (occ !== undefined && occ > 0 && renter !== undefined) push('renter_share', renter / occ);
+ }
+
+ if (rows.length === 0) throw new Error('ACS parse produced 0 metric rows');
+
+ const upserted = await upsertMetricRows(rows, runId);
+ for (let i = 0; i < popUpdates.length; i += 500) {
+ const batch = popUpdates.slice(i, i + 500);
+ const params: unknown[] = [];
+ const values = batch.map((u, j) => { params.push(u.regionId, u.population); return `($${j * 2 + 1}::int,$${j * 2 + 2}::int)`; });
+ await query(
+ `UPDATE region rg SET population = v.pop FROM (VALUES ${values.join(',')}) AS v(id, pop) WHERE rg.id = v.id`,
+ params,
+ );
+ }
+ unmatched.flush();
+ await closeRun(runId, 'ok', {
+ upserted, skipped,
+ notes: `counties=${data.length - 1} key=${key ? 'used' : 'keyless'} pop_updates=${popUpdates.length} unmatched=${unmatched.count(SOURCE)}`,
+ });
+ console.log(`[acs] ok: ${upserted} metric rows, ${popUpdates.length} region.population updates, ${skipped} skipped`);
+ } catch (e) {
+ await closeRun(runId, 'failed', { notes: String(e) });
+ console.error('[acs] FAILED:', e);
+ process.exitCode = 1;
+ } finally {
+ await pool.end();
+ }
+}
+
+main();
diff --git a/src/ingest/derive_metrics.ts b/src/ingest/derive_metrics.ts
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..ea385f9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/ingest/derive_metrics.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,85 @@
+/**
+ * Derived metrics -> metric_series source 'derived'.
+ * For every county + metro:
+ * affordability = latest zhvi / ACS median_hh_income (annual ACS joins to any zhvi month)
+ * rent_yield = (zori * 12) / zhvi at the latest common zhvi+zori period
+ * zhvi_yoy = zhvi latest vs 12 months prior (fraction)
+ * period stored = the zhvi period used. Idempotent upserts via the shared harness.
+ */
+import { pool, query } from '../../db/pool.ts';
+import { openRun, closeRun } from './run.ts';
+import { upsertMetricRows, type MetricRow } from './crosswalk.ts';
+
+const SOURCE = 'derived';
+
+interface SeriesRow { region_id: number; metric: string; period: string; value: string }
+
+async function main() {
+ const runId = await openRun(SOURCE);
+ try {
+ const r = await query<SeriesRow>(
+ `SELECT ms.region_id, ms.metric, to_char(ms.period, 'YYYY-MM-DD') AS period, ms.value::text AS value
+ FROM metric_series ms
+ JOIN region rg ON rg.id = ms.region_id AND rg.region_type IN ('county','metro')
+ WHERE (ms.source = 'zillow' AND ms.metric IN ('zhvi','zori'))
+ OR (ms.source = 'acs' AND ms.metric = 'median_hh_income')`,
+ );
+
+ type Per = { zhvi: Map<string, number>; zori: Map<string, number>; income?: number };
+ const byRegion = new Map<number, Per>();
+ for (const row of r.rows) {
+ let p = byRegion.get(row.region_id);
+ if (!p) { p = { zhvi: new Map(), zori: new Map() }; byRegion.set(row.region_id, p); }
+ const v = Number(row.value);
+ if (row.metric === 'zhvi') p.zhvi.set(row.period, v);
+ else if (row.metric === 'zori') p.zori.set(row.period, v);
+ else p.income = v;
+ }
+
+ const rows: MetricRow[] = [];
+ const monthsBack = (period: string, n: number) => {
+ const [y, m] = period.split('-').map(Number);
+ const total = y * 12 + (m - 1) - n;
+ return `${Math.floor(total / 12)}-${String((total % 12) + 1).padStart(2, '0')}-01`;
+ };
+
+ for (const [regionId, p] of byRegion) {
+ if (p.zhvi.size === 0) continue;
+ const zhviPeriods = [...p.zhvi.keys()].sort();
+ const latest = zhviPeriods[zhviPeriods.length - 1];
+ const zhvi = p.zhvi.get(latest)!;
+ if (!(zhvi > 0)) continue;
+
+ if (p.income && p.income > 0)
+ rows.push({ regionId, source: SOURCE, metric: 'affordability', period: latest, value: zhvi / p.income });
+
+ // rent_yield at the latest period where BOTH zhvi and zori exist
+ const common = [...p.zori.keys()].filter(k => p.zhvi.has(k)).sort();
+ if (common.length) {
+ const cp = common[common.length - 1];
+ const z = p.zhvi.get(cp)!, rent = p.zori.get(cp)!;
+ if (z > 0 && rent > 0)
+ rows.push({ regionId, source: SOURCE, metric: 'rent_yield', period: cp, value: (rent * 12) / z });
+ }
+
+ const prior = p.zhvi.get(monthsBack(latest, 12));
+ if (prior && prior > 0)
+ rows.push({ regionId, source: SOURCE, metric: 'zhvi_yoy', period: latest, value: zhvi / prior - 1 });
+ }
+
+ if (rows.length === 0) throw new Error('derive produced 0 rows — are zillow + acs ingests loaded?');
+ const upserted = await upsertMetricRows(rows, runId);
+ const counts: Record<string, number> = {};
+ for (const row of rows) counts[row.metric] = (counts[row.metric] || 0) + 1;
+ await closeRun(runId, 'ok', { upserted, notes: JSON.stringify(counts) });
+ console.log(`[derive] ok: ${upserted} rows`, counts);
+ } catch (e) {
+ await closeRun(runId, 'failed', { notes: String(e) });
+ console.error('[derive] FAILED:', e);
+ process.exitCode = 1;
+ } finally {
+ await pool.end();
+ }
+}
+
+main();
diff --git a/src/ingest/fhfa_hpi.ts b/src/ingest/fhfa_hpi.ts
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..3467d0c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/ingest/fhfa_hpi.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,151 @@
+/**
+ * FHFA House Price Index (HPI_master.csv) -> metric 'hpi', quarterly, metro + state.
+ * URL DRIFT (probed 2026-07-21): the old /DataTools/Downloads/Documents/HPI/HPI_master.csv
+ * 404s; current path is /hpi/download/monthly/hpi_master.csv (serves the full master file).
+ * Flavor choice: purchase-only quarterly covers only 100 MSAs vs 410 for all-transactions,
+ * so we use hpi_type='traditional', hpi_flavor='all-transactions', frequency='quarterly'.
+ * Metro match: place_id IS the CBSA code -> region.cbsa_code. State match: 2-letter place_id.
+ * Last 12 quarters only; period = quarter-end date; value = index_nsa (SA blank for many MSAs).
+ */
+import { readFileSync } from 'node:fs';
+import { pool } from '../../db/pool.ts';
+import { openRun, closeRun, download } from './run.ts';
+import { loadRegionMaps, loadOverrides, buildMetroMatcher, upsertMetricRows, upsertSourceRegionMap, UnmatchedCollector, type MetricRow } from './crosswalk.ts';
+
+const SOURCE = 'fhfa';
+const URL = 'https://www.fhfa.gov/hpi/download/monthly/hpi_master.csv';
+const QUARTERS_KEPT = 12;
+
+function parseCsvLine(line: string): string[] {
+ const out: string[] = [];
+ let cur = '', inQ = false;
+ for (let i = 0; i < line.length; i++) {
+ const c = line[i];
+ if (inQ) {
+ if (c === '"') { if (line[i + 1] === '"') { cur += '"'; i++; } else inQ = false; }
+ else cur += c;
+ } else if (c === '"') inQ = true;
+ else if (c === ',') { out.push(cur); cur = ''; }
+ else cur += c;
+ }
+ out.push(cur);
+ return out;
+}
+
+const QUARTER_END: Record<string, string> = { '1': '03-31', '2': '06-30', '3': '09-30', '4': '12-31' };
+
+async function main() {
+ const runId = await openRun(SOURCE, URL);
+ try {
+ const { path, sha256 } = await download(URL, 'hpi_master.csv');
+ const lines = readFileSync(path, 'utf8').split('\n');
+ const header = parseCsvLine(lines[0].trim());
+ const idx = (name: string) => {
+ const i = header.indexOf(name);
+ if (i < 0) throw new Error(`HPI header missing ${name}: ${header.join(',')}`);
+ return i;
+ };
+ const iType = idx('hpi_type'), iFlavor = idx('hpi_flavor'), iFreq = idx('frequency'),
+ iLevel = idx('level'), iName = idx('place_name'), iId = idx('place_id'),
+ iYr = idx('yr'), iPeriod = idx('period'), iNsa = idx('index_nsa');
+
+ type Parsed = { level: string; placeId: string; placeName: string; yr: number; q: string; value: number };
+ const parsed: Parsed[] = [];
+ let maxYr = 0;
+ for (let n = 1; n < lines.length; n++) {
+ const line = lines[n].trim();
+ if (!line) continue;
+ const c = parseCsvLine(line);
+ if (c[iType] !== 'traditional' || c[iFlavor] !== 'all-transactions' || c[iFreq] !== 'quarterly') continue;
+ const level = c[iLevel];
+ if (level !== 'MSA' && level !== 'State') continue;
+ const value = Number(c[iNsa]);
+ if (!Number.isFinite(value)) continue;
+ const yr = Number(c[iYr]);
+ parsed.push({ level, placeId: c[iId], placeName: c[iName], yr, q: c[iPeriod], value });
+ if (yr > maxYr) maxYr = yr;
+ }
+ if (parsed.length === 0) throw new Error('HPI parse produced 0 rows — format drift?');
+
+ // keep last 12 quarters: quarter index yr*4 + q
+ const latestQ = Math.max(...parsed.filter(p => p.yr === maxYr).map(p => Number(p.q)));
+ const latestIdx = maxYr * 4 + latestQ;
+ const cutoffIdx = latestIdx - (QUARTERS_KEPT - 1);
+
+ const maps = await loadRegionMaps();
+ const overrides = loadOverrides(SOURCE);
+ const matchMetro = buildMetroMatcher(maps);
+ const unmatched = new UnmatchedCollector();
+ // regions covered by a DIRECT cbsa_code match — an MSAD fallback must never overwrite these
+ const directRegionIds = new Set<number>();
+ for (const p of parsed) {
+ if (p.level !== 'MSA') continue;
+ const direct = maps.byCbsa.get(p.placeId);
+ if (direct) directRegionIds.add(direct.id);
+ }
+ /** "Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA (MSAD)" -> parent CBSA via first city × each state token. */
+ const matchMsad = (placeName: string) => {
+ const name = placeName.replace(/\s*\(MSAD\)$/, '');
+ const comma = name.lastIndexOf(',');
+ if (comma < 0) return null;
+ const firstCity = name.slice(0, comma).split(/[-/]/)[0].trim();
+ for (const st of name.slice(comma + 1).trim().split('-')) {
+ const m = matchMetro(`${firstCity}, ${st.trim()}`);
+ if (m) return m;
+ }
+ return null;
+ };
+ const rows: MetricRow[] = [];
+ const mapEntries: { source: string; sourceRegionId: string; regionId: number; matchMethod: string }[] = [];
+ const unmatchedIds = new Set<string>();
+
+ for (const p of parsed) {
+ if (p.yr * 4 + Number(p.q) < cutoffIdx) continue;
+ let region = p.level === 'MSA' ? maps.byCbsa.get(p.placeId) : maps.byStateCode.get(p.placeId);
+ let method = p.level === 'MSA' ? 'cbsa' : 'state';
+ if (!region && overrides[p.placeId]) {
+ region = maps.byCanonicalKey.get(overrides[p.placeId]);
+ method = 'override';
+ }
+ if (!region && p.level === 'MSA' && p.placeName.endsWith('(MSAD)')) {
+ // FHFA lists divisions INSTEAD of the parent CBSA for the largest metros.
+ // The PRIMARY division's first-named city equals the parent CBSA's first city
+ // ("Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA" -> CBSA 31080); secondary divisions
+ // (Anaheim, Camden, Cambridge...) correctly fail the prefix match and stay skipped.
+ // Never applied to a region already covered by a direct cbsa_code match.
+ const m = matchMsad(p.placeName);
+ if (m && !directRegionIds.has(m.region.id)) { region = m.region; method = 'msad_primary_city'; }
+ }
+ if (!region) {
+ if (!unmatchedIds.has(p.placeId)) {
+ unmatchedIds.add(p.placeId);
+ unmatched.add(SOURCE, { level: p.level, place_id: p.placeId, place_name: p.placeName });
+ }
+ continue;
+ }
+ rows.push({
+ regionId: region.id, source: SOURCE, metric: 'hpi',
+ period: `${p.yr}-${QUARTER_END[p.q]}`, value: p.value,
+ });
+ mapEntries.push({ source: SOURCE, sourceRegionId: p.placeId, regionId: region.id, matchMethod: method });
+ }
+ if (rows.length === 0) throw new Error('HPI matched 0 regions — crosswalk drift?');
+
+ const upserted = await upsertMetricRows(rows, runId);
+ await upsertSourceRegionMap(mapEntries);
+ unmatched.flush();
+ await closeRun(runId, 'ok', {
+ upserted, skipped: unmatchedIds.size, fileHash: sha256,
+ notes: `flavor=all-transactions latest=${maxYr}Q${latestQ} quarters=${QUARTERS_KEPT} unmatched_places=${unmatchedIds.size}`,
+ });
+ console.log(`[fhfa] ok: ${upserted} rows (latest ${maxYr}Q${latestQ}), ${unmatchedIds.size} unmatched place_ids`);
+ } catch (e) {
+ await closeRun(runId, 'failed', { notes: String(e) });
+ console.error('[fhfa] FAILED:', e);
+ process.exitCode = 1;
+ } finally {
+ await pool.end();
+ }
+}
+
+main();
diff --git a/src/server/index.ts b/src/server/index.ts
index ff3e097..5e2ef77 100644
--- a/src/server/index.ts
+++ b/src/server/index.ts
@@ -77,6 +77,102 @@ app.get('/api/choropleth', async (req, res) => {
}
});
+// market detail: full 36mo series (all sources) + latest per metric for one region
+app.get('/api/market', async (req, res) => {
+ try {
+ const key = String(req.query.key || '');
+ const rg = await query(
+ `SELECT id, region_type, canonical_key, name, state_code, fips, cbsa_code, lat, lng, population
+ FROM region WHERE canonical_key = $1`,
+ [key],
+ );
+ if (!rg.rows.length) return res.status(404).json({ error: 'region not found: ' + key });
+ const region = rg.rows[0];
+ const r = await query<{ source: string; metric: string; period: string; value: string }>(
+ `SELECT source, metric, to_char(period, 'YYYY-MM-DD') AS period, value::text AS value
+ FROM metric_series
+ WHERE region_id = $1
+ AND (period >= (CURRENT_DATE - INTERVAL '36 months') OR source = 'acs')
+ ORDER BY metric, period`,
+ [region.id],
+ );
+ const series: Record<string, [string, number][]> = {};
+ const latest: Record<string, number> = {};
+ for (const row of r.rows) {
+ (series[row.metric] ||= []).push([row.period, Number(row.value)]);
+ latest[row.metric] = Number(row.value); // rows are period-ASC per metric, so last write wins
+ }
+ res.json({ region, series, latest });
+ } catch (e: any) {
+ res.status(500).json({ error: String(e.message || e) });
+ }
+});
+
+const MARKETS_METRICS = [
+ 'zhvi', 'zhvi_yoy', 'median_sale_price', 'median_sale_price_yoy', 'inventory', 'dom',
+ 'months_of_supply', 'sale_to_list', 'median_hh_income', 'rent_yield', 'affordability',
+];
+
+// ranking dashboard: one row per region with latest score + latest key metrics
+app.get('/api/markets', async (req, res) => {
+ try {
+ const type = String(req.query.type || 'county');
+ if (type !== 'county' && type !== 'metro') return res.status(400).json({ error: 'type must be county|metro' });
+ const metricsQ = query<{ region_id: number; metric: string; value: string }>(
+ `SELECT DISTINCT ON (ms.region_id, ms.metric) ms.region_id, ms.metric, ms.value::text AS value
+ FROM metric_series ms
+ JOIN region rg ON rg.id = ms.region_id AND rg.region_type = $1
+ WHERE ms.metric = ANY($2)
+ ORDER BY ms.region_id, ms.metric, ms.period DESC`,
+ [type, MARKETS_METRICS],
+ );
+ const scoresQ = query<{ region_id: number; opportunity_score: string; rank: number; components: any }>(
+ `SELECT rs.region_id, rs.opportunity_score::text AS opportunity_score, rs.rank, rs.components
+ FROM region_scores rs
+ JOIN region rg ON rg.id = rs.region_id AND rg.region_type = $1
+ WHERE rs.score_date = (SELECT MAX(rs2.score_date) FROM region_scores rs2
+ JOIN region rg2 ON rg2.id = rs2.region_id AND rg2.region_type = $1)`,
+ [type],
+ );
+ const regionsQ = query(
+ `SELECT id, canonical_key, name, state_code, fips, cbsa_code, population
+ FROM region WHERE region_type = $1`,
+ [type],
+ );
+ const [metrics, scores, regions] = await Promise.all([metricsQ, scoresQ, regionsQ]);
+ const metricMap = new Map<number, Record<string, number>>();
+ for (const m of metrics.rows) {
+ let o = metricMap.get(m.region_id);
+ if (!o) { o = {}; metricMap.set(m.region_id, o); }
+ o[m.metric] = Number(m.value);
+ }
+ const scoreMap = new Map(scores.rows.map(s => [s.region_id, s]));
+ const rows = regions.rows.map((rg: any) => {
+ const m = metricMap.get(rg.id) || {};
+ const s = scoreMap.get(rg.id);
+ const sub = s?.components?.sub_scores || {};
+ return {
+ key: rg.canonical_key, name: rg.name, state: rg.state_code, population: rg.population,
+ opportunity_score: s ? Number(s.opportunity_score) : null,
+ rank: s?.rank ?? null,
+ momentum: sub.momentum ?? null, affordability_score: sub.affordability ?? null,
+ rent_yield_score: sub.rent_yield ?? null, inventory_trend: sub.inventory_trend ?? null,
+ velocity: sub.velocity ?? null,
+ data_completeness: s?.components?.data_completeness ?? null,
+ zhvi: m.zhvi ?? null, zhvi_yoy: m.zhvi_yoy ?? null,
+ median_sale_price: m.median_sale_price ?? null, median_sale_price_yoy: m.median_sale_price_yoy ?? null,
+ inventory: m.inventory ?? null, dom: m.dom ?? null,
+ months_of_supply: m.months_of_supply ?? null, sale_to_list: m.sale_to_list ?? null,
+ median_hh_income: m.median_hh_income ?? null, rent_yield: m.rent_yield ?? null,
+ affordability: m.affordability ?? null,
+ };
+ });
+ res.json({ type, count: rows.length, rows });
+ } catch (e: any) {
+ res.status(500).json({ error: String(e.message || e) });
+ }
+});
+
app.use(express.static(join(ROOT, 'public')));
app.listen(PORT, () => {
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M4: deterministic opportunity scorer (5-component percentile effc2fd →