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378dec5b61de5384ddc4e3d1aa5b463b644b8901 · 2026-07-13 06:53:22 -0700 · Steve Abrams

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• M data/trend-board.json
• M memos/trend-board.md

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commit 378dec5b61de5384ddc4e3d1aa5b463b644b8901
Author: Steve Abrams <steve@designerwallcoverings.com>
Date:   Mon Jul 13 06:53:22 2026 -0700

    auto-save: 2026-07-13T06:53:18 (2 files) — data/trend-board.json memos/trend-board.md
---
 data/trend-board.json | 75 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++-----------------
 memos/trend-board.md  | 82 ++++++++++++++-------------------------------------
 2 files changed, 70 insertions(+), 87 deletions(-)

diff --git a/data/trend-board.json b/data/trend-board.json
index d4e6f49..4a827a9 100644
--- a/data/trend-board.json
+++ b/data/trend-board.json
@@ -1,36 +1,57 @@
 {
-  "scannedAt": "2026-07-02",
+  "scannedAt": "2026-07-13",
   "source": "design-trend-scout",
-  "spendUsd": 0.015,
-  "spendNote": "Exa: 3 web searches (~$0.005 ea) = ~$0.015. Logged to cost-ledger.jsonl. (Refresh of earlier same-day pass, now gap-focused for the Spoonflower info@printmurals.com seller account.)",
+  "spendUsd": 0,
+  "spendNote": "$0 (local/free). Exa MCP was permission-blocked in this non-interactive session, so the scout ran the same marketplace queries via built-in WebSearch (8 calls) + 2 curl page-extracts — both unmetered. No paid API calls; $0 entry logged to cost-ledger.jsonl.",
   "sources": [
-    "spoonflower.com/en/shop/top-sellers",
-    "spoonflower.com/en/shop/2026-trends",
-    "williammorriswallpaper.co/blogs/guides/wallpaper-trends-2026",
-    "countryandtownhouse.com/interiors/wallpaper-trends-2026",
-    "blog.wallpaperdirect.com wallpaper-trends-forecast-2026",
-    "etsy shops musewallstudio + WallHalla (bestselling peel-and-stick / seamless)"
+    "spoonflower.com/en/shop/top-sellers + /en/inspiration/collections (lanes: feminine florals, whimsical kids, lush tropical, maritime/coastal, Mediterranean sun-washed, earthy botanicals/block-prints/global motifs, heritage plaids+florals)",
+    "etsy.com/market/wallpaper_peel_and_stick + /market/best_selling_seamless_pattern (bestsellers: medieval secret-garden dark botanical, boho vintage floral, chinoiserie bird&butterfly murals, mid-century arch terracotta/beige, moody olive plaid, gothic botanical apothecary, antique French tiles, whimsical safari nursery murals)",
+    "creativemarket.com/trends + patternweaver.ai/blog/pattern-design-trends (10 x 2026 trends: tactile maximalism, neo-folk revival, quiet-luxury tone-on-tone textures, AI-native, biophilic abstracts, retro digital/Y2K, hand-drawn imperfection, micro patterns, earth+mineral, collections-over-singles)",
+    "patternbank.com trends (SS26 catwalk + PV AW26-27: HORSE motifs rising ahead of Year of the Horse 2027, camouflage comeback, ditsy florals back big, broad decorative shift away from minimalism)",
+    "society6.com/collections/wall-art-new-trending + redbubble (abstract landscapes, boho warm tones/organic shapes, coastal light palettes, earthy tones, hand-drawn illustration)",
+    "livingetc.com + countryandtownhouse.com + selectedwallpapers.com + wallsrepublic.com + appliedcoverings.com + totalwallcovering.com wallpaper-trends-2026 (romantic maximalism, painterly panoramas/garden vistas, animal print with a twist, texture-effect papers incl. faux marble/plaster, whole-room deep tones: inky navy/charcoal/forest/aubergine/oxblood)",
+    "theeverymom.com nursery-wallpaper-trends-2026 (circuscore + boho nursery; whimsical safari/woodland/reading-animals bestsellers)"
   ],
-  "market": "US wallcovering ~$12B in 2026, +3.56%/yr. Maximalism has fully replaced gray minimalism; wallpaper sales up every year since 2020.",
-  "catalogCovers": ["heritage botanical/trellis", "dark moody florals", "chinoiserie (neutral)", "damask", "heritage stripes", "mid-century retro", "coastal stripe", "block-print geometry", "geometric lattice", "animal CHARACTER whimsy", "cactus/southwest", "painterly florals", "greige/chamois neutrals", "coastal/cactus murals"],
+  "market": "Wallpaper firmly back for 2026; decorative maximalism still displacing minimalism (print gaining on fashion runways too, per Patternbank). 2026 palette: earthy neutrals (beige/cream/sand) + sage + warm brown for calm rooms; whole-room deep tones (inky navy, charcoal, forest, aubergine, oxblood) for drama; nature palettes pushed to mossy green, clay ochre, muted terracotta, deep mineral blue.",
+  "catalogCovers": ["heritage botanical/trellis (4)", "dark moody florals (5 colorways)", "chinoiserie branch neutral (2)", "damask", "heritage stripes (2)", "mid-century retro", "coastal stripe", "block-print geometry (2)", "geometric lattice", "animal CHARACTER whimsy (7: foxes/sloths/raccoons/monkeys/designer-zoo)", "Muybridge motion plates (2)", "cactus/southwest + murals (2)", "painterly florals (2)", "toile panoramic (chamois)", "coastal mural panels (2)", "greige/chamois abstracts (2)", "ditsy (1)"],
+  "catalogNote": "Catalog unchanged since the 2026-07-02 scan (38 designs) — none of the July-2 briefs have been generated yet, so every July-2 gap still stands. This pass re-confirms them and adds three new lanes (equestrian, circuscore nursery, moody plaid) plus one upgrade (quiet-luxury tone-on-tone).",
   "trends": [
-    { "lane": "Romantic maximalist heritage florals", "why": "Single biggest trend; dense heritage botanicals/damasks in saturated color, William Morris leads", "priceBand": "$149-495", "haveCoverage": "STRONG", "gap": "low" },
-    { "lane": "Chinoiserie (branch/floral, NO birds)", "why": "Heritage 2nd-biggest; sells neutral AND saturated", "priceBand": "$149-795", "haveCoverage": "MEDIUM (neutral only)", "gap": "medium - missing saturated + a mural" },
-    { "lane": "Animal-skin print with a twist", "why": "Designers push rose cheetah / verdant tiger / off-color leopard; Etsy confirms leopard+zebra selling", "priceBand": "$149-495", "haveCoverage": "NONE (we have characters, not skin print)", "gap": "HIGH - clearest whitespace" },
-    { "lane": "Chartreuse + Art-Deco metallic geometric", "why": "Chartreuse explicitly back, in metallic geometric / Deco revival", "priceBand": "$149-495", "haveCoverage": "LOW", "gap": "HIGH" },
-    { "lane": "Tactile texture-effect (grasscloth/linen/embroidery illusion)", "why": "Tactility named key emerging trend", "priceBand": "$149-495", "haveCoverage": "NONE in pattern-vault", "gap": "HIGH" },
-    { "lane": "Small-scale ditsy micro-prints", "why": "Rising for small rooms; high-volume easy Spoonflower sellers", "priceBand": "$149", "haveCoverage": "LOW (Calico Vine only)", "gap": "medium" },
-    { "lane": "Painterly scenic murals / panoramas", "why": "Premium timeless seller", "priceBand": "$249-795", "haveCoverage": "MEDIUM", "gap": "medium - add saturated garden panorama" },
-    { "lane": "Cloud Dancer warm-white / calm neutral", "why": "Pantone 2026; bedrooms/baths", "priceBand": "$149", "haveCoverage": "STRONG", "gap": "low" }
+    { "lane": "Romantic maximalist heritage florals", "why": "Still the #1 named 2026 trend (Livingetc, C&TH, Selected): layered florals + damasks + historical patterns in saturated color", "priceBand": "$149-495", "haveCoverage": "STRONG (Arden, Nocturne series, damask, painterly florals)", "gap": "low" },
+    { "lane": "Tactile texture-effect / quiet-luxury tone-on-tone", "why": "Named across every 2026 forecast: grasscloth-effect, linen weaves, plaster/faux-marble, soft embossing; PatternWeaver #3 = tone-on-tone micro-geometrics (sage-on-sage, cream-on-cream) that read solid from a distance. Highest-volume commercial workhorse.", "priceBand": "$149-495", "haveCoverage": "NONE", "gap": "HIGH — carried over from July 2, still unfilled" },
+    { "lane": "Animal-skin print with a twist", "why": "Re-confirmed this pass: rose-hued cheetah / verdant green tiger named again in 2026 trend press; 'refined animal prints' explicitly cited as selling", "priceBand": "$149-495", "haveCoverage": "NONE (we have animal characters, not skin prints)", "gap": "HIGH — carried over, still unfilled" },
+    { "lane": "Equestrian / horse motifs (Year of the Horse)", "why": "NEW: Patternbank flags horse motifs as a defining 2026 statement print, momentum building into Lunar Year of the Horse (Feb 2027). Seasonal tailwind with a hard deadline — list by Q4 2026.", "priceBand": "$149-495", "haveCoverage": "ADJACENT only (Muybridge motion plates 56250/56249)", "gap": "HIGH + TIMELY" },
+    { "lane": "Dark moody botanical / gothic apothecary", "why": "Etsy bestsellers: 'Medieval Secret Garden', 'Moody Black Floral Gothic Botanical Apothecary'; whole-room deep-tone trend feeds it", "priceBand": "$149-395", "haveCoverage": "STRONG (5 Nocturne colorways)", "gap": "low" },
+    { "lane": "Moody heritage plaid", "why": "NEW as its own lane: 'Moody Olive Green Plaid' is a named Etsy peel-and-stick bestseller; Spoonflower pushing plaids+florals heritage collections", "priceBand": "$149-295", "haveCoverage": "NONE", "gap": "medium-HIGH — cheap to fill, zero coverage" },
+    { "lane": "Neo-folk revival / block-print global", "why": "PatternWeaver #2 + Spoonflower 'earthy botanicals, block prints, global motifs in rich colors': folk structural DNA rebuilt in modern palettes (terracotta + electric blue)", "priceBand": "$149-395", "haveCoverage": "LOW (Folk Tile + Prussian block-leaf)", "gap": "MEDIUM-HIGH" },
+    { "lane": "Chinoiserie (branch/floral — NO birds)", "why": "Etsy chinoiserie bestsellers are mostly bird-&-butterfly murals (settlement-blocked for us); our lane is branch/blossom-only, which still sells — French-country tree-branch murals in cream/sage are top listings", "priceBand": "$149-795", "haveCoverage": "MEDIUM (2 neutral branch designs)", "gap": "medium — saturated-ground version + a branch MURAL still missing" },
+    { "lane": "Small-scale ditsy / micro-prints", "why": "Patternbank: ditsy florals 'back in a big way' on catwalks; PatternWeaver #8 micro-patterns = commercial workhorse; easy multi-colorway volume on Spoonflower", "priceBand": "$149", "haveCoverage": "LOW (Calico Vine only)", "gap": "medium" },
+    { "lane": "Painterly scenic murals / garden panoramas", "why": "2026 forecasts converge on painterly hand-inspired scenes: botanical panoramas, classical garden vistas, soft landscapes", "priceBand": "$249-795", "haveCoverage": "MEDIUM (Monterey coastal x2, cactus mural, toile panel)", "gap": "medium — saturated garden panorama still missing" },
+    { "lane": "Circuscore + whimsical nursery", "why": "NEW: named top-2 2026 nursery trend (softened vintage circus: stripes, starbursts, big-top) + whimsical safari/woodland/reading-animals bestsellers on Etsy/Spoonflower", "priceBand": "$149-395", "haveCoverage": "MEDIUM (strong adult-register animal characters; zero circuscore geometry, zero nursery-register colorways)", "gap": "medium — our character hand transfers directly" },
+    { "lane": "Mid-century arch geometric (terracotta/beige)", "why": "Specific named Etsy bestseller shape this pass; boho organic-shapes trend on Society6 agrees", "priceBand": "$149-295", "haveCoverage": "LOW (Atomic Meadow is a different retro register)", "gap": "medium" },
+    { "lane": "Chartreuse + Art-Deco metallic geometric", "why": "Carried from July 2 (chartreuse revival, Deco metallics); weaker signal this pass — keep the brief, lower priority", "priceBand": "$149-495", "haveCoverage": "LOW", "gap": "medium (downgraded from HIGH)" }
   ],
   "briefs": [
-    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-animalprint-01", "lane": "Animal-skin print with a twist", "title": "Rosewood Cheetah", "prompt": "Original seamless repeat of stylised cheetah-rosette markings, hand-painted look, scattered on a warm plaster ground; skin-print abstraction only, no animal figures; rose-clay and cocoa spots on oatmeal.", "colorway": "Rose-clay + cocoa on oatmeal", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE" },
-    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-animalprint-02", "lane": "Animal-skin print with a twist", "title": "Verdant Tiger Stripe", "prompt": "Original painterly tiger-stripe skin-print abstraction (no animal figure) in forest and moss green on deep ink; brushy irregular hand-inked stripes reading as luxe textile.", "colorway": "Forest + moss on ink", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE" },
-    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-chinoiserie-sat-01", "lane": "Chinoiserie (saturated, no birds)", "title": "Nocturne Garden Chinoiserie", "prompt": "Original hand-painted-look chinoiserie of flowering branches, peonies and boughs on deep forest-green ground; gold + blush blooms. STRICTLY branches + flowers, NO birds, NO butterflies.", "colorway": "Gold + blush on forest green", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE - no birds/butterflies" },
-    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-deco-01", "lane": "Chartreuse Art-Deco geometric", "title": "Gilded Fan Deco", "prompt": "Original Art-Deco geometric of repeating fan/sunburst arcs and stepped chevrons, metallic-gold linework, 1920s Gatsby revival, crisp symmetry, no plants no leaves no florals", "colorway": "Metallic gold on chartreuse", "groundColor": "#B0C000 chartreuse yellow-green", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE - abstract geometric" },
-    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-texture-01", "lane": "Tactile texture-effect", "title": "Linen Weave Plain", "prompt": "Original photoreal woven linen/grasscloth texture as seamless near-plain wallcovering; visible warp/weft slubs; warm greige; illusion-of-tactility.", "colorway": "Warm greige linen", "targetTier": "digital_single_use $149", "settlement": "SAFE - abstract texture" },
-    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-ditsy-01", "lane": "Small-scale ditsy micro-print", "title": "Meadow Ditsy", "prompt": "Original tiny-scale ditsy floral micro-print, hand-drawn sprigs and dots evenly scattered on open cream ground; sized for small rooms; multiple colorways.", "colorway": "Sage + terracotta sprigs on bone", "targetTier": "digital_single_use $149", "settlement": "SAFE - non-directional sprigs, open ground" },
-    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-mural-01", "lane": "Painterly scenic mural", "title": "Saturated Garden Panorama", "prompt": "Original full-wall painterly botanical garden panorama - layered ferns, hydrangea, foliage receding into mist on deep teal-green ground; fine-art scenery, single colorway. NO birds.", "colorway": "Deep teal-green garden", "targetTier": "mural commercial_print $795", "settlement": "SAFE - no birds/butterflies, non-tropical" },
-    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-toile-01", "lane": "Toile de Jouy (saturated)", "title": "Meadow Toile", "prompt": "Original toile-de-jouy pastoral scene - hand-engraved-look vignettes of meadow, trees, cottages and figures in a single-color line engraving on cream; classic toile rhythm. NO birds. Offer in oxblood, forest-green, and navy colorways.", "colorway": "Oxblood line on cream", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE - engraved pastoral, no birds/butterflies, non-tropical" }
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-horse-01", "lane": "Equestrian / Year of the Horse", "title": "Heritage Canter", "prompt": "Original hand-engraved-look equestrian repeat: galloping and cantering horse silhouettes with flowing manes, alternating with laurel sprigs and heritage medallions, single-color line engraving on cream; classic sporting-print rhythm, dignified not cartoonish. NO birds, NO butterflies.", "colorway": "Oxblood line on cream (also ink-navy, forest)", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE — horses are not a prohibited element; pastoral, non-tropical", "deadline": "List by Q4 2026 for Lunar New Year (Feb 2027) demand", "status": "new-2026-07-13" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-horse-02", "lane": "Equestrian / Year of the Horse", "title": "Muybridge Gallop — Oxblood", "prompt": "Extend our existing Muybridge sequential-motion-plate style into a dedicated horse-gait study: sepia sequential frames of a horse in motion arranged in scholarly plate rows on an oxblood ground; ties into existing 56250/56249 line.", "colorway": "Sepia plates on oxblood", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE", "status": "new-2026-07-13" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-texture-01", "lane": "Tactile texture / quiet luxury", "title": "Linen Weave Plain", "prompt": "Original photoreal woven linen/grasscloth texture as seamless near-plain wallcovering; visible warp/weft slubs; warm greige; illusion-of-tactility.", "colorway": "Warm greige linen", "targetTier": "digital_single_use $149", "settlement": "SAFE — abstract texture", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-texture-02", "lane": "Tactile texture / quiet luxury", "title": "Sage Ogee Whisper", "prompt": "Original tone-on-tone micro-ogee geometric, sage-on-sage with minimal contrast, fine embossed-textile look; reads as a solid from across the room, reveals pattern up close; quiet-luxury register.", "colorway": "Sage on sage (also charcoal-on-black, cream-on-cream)", "targetTier": "digital_single_use $149 x3 colorways", "settlement": "SAFE — abstract geometric", "status": "new-2026-07-13" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-animalprint-01", "lane": "Animal-skin print with a twist", "title": "Rosewood Cheetah", "prompt": "Original seamless repeat of stylised cheetah-rosette markings, hand-painted look, scattered on a warm plaster ground; skin-print abstraction only, no animal figures; rose-clay and cocoa spots on oatmeal.", "colorway": "Rose-clay + cocoa on oatmeal", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE — abstract skin markings, no prohibited elements", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-animalprint-02", "lane": "Animal-skin print with a twist", "title": "Verdant Tiger Stripe", "prompt": "Original painterly tiger-stripe skin-print abstraction (no animal figure) in forest and moss green on deep ink; brushy irregular hand-inked stripes reading as luxe textile.", "colorway": "Forest + moss on ink", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-nursery-01", "lane": "Circuscore nursery", "title": "Big Top Parade", "prompt": "Original softened-vintage-circus nursery repeat in our designer-zoo character hand: calm illustrated animals (bears, foxes, elephants — NO birds) in a gentle big-top parade with soft stripes, starbursts and pennants; muted modern palette, not overstimulating.", "colorway": "Dusty red + sand + sage on cream", "targetTier": "commercial_print $395", "settlement": "SAFE — character animals (non-bird), geometric circus elements", "status": "new-2026-07-13" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-plaid-01", "lane": "Moody heritage plaid", "title": "Olive Bothy Plaid", "prompt": "Original moody heritage plaid/tartan in olive, charcoal and bronze with soft woven-texture illusion; menswear-flannel warmth for dens and libraries; fills the moody-plaid Etsy bestseller lane we have zero coverage in.", "colorway": "Olive + charcoal + bronze", "targetTier": "digital_single_use $149", "settlement": "SAFE — woven geometric", "status": "new-2026-07-13" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-folk-01", "lane": "Neo-folk revival", "title": "Tulip Kilim Folk", "prompt": "Original neo-folk repeat extracting the structural DNA of Eastern-European folk florals — symmetric tulip-and-heart wreath motifs, simplified flat forms, visible block-print texture — rebuilt in a modern palette; dense symmetric layout, non-tropical, no birds.", "colorway": "Muted terracotta + electric blue on bone", "targetTier": "commercial_print $395", "settlement": "SAFE — symmetric folk florals, no prohibited elements", "status": "new-2026-07-13" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-chinoiserie-sat-01", "lane": "Chinoiserie (saturated, no birds)", "title": "Nocturne Garden Chinoiserie", "prompt": "Original hand-painted-look chinoiserie of flowering branches, peonies and boughs on deep forest-green ground; gold + blush blooms. STRICTLY branches + flowers, NO birds, NO butterflies.", "colorway": "Gold + blush on forest green", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE — no birds/butterflies", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-ditsy-01", "lane": "Small-scale ditsy micro-print", "title": "Meadow Ditsy", "prompt": "Original tiny-scale ditsy floral micro-print, hand-drawn sprigs and dots evenly scattered on open cream ground; sized for small rooms; multiple colorways.", "colorway": "Sage + terracotta sprigs on bone", "targetTier": "digital_single_use $149", "settlement": "SAFE — non-directional sprigs", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-mural-01", "lane": "Painterly scenic mural", "title": "Saturated Garden Panorama", "prompt": "Original full-wall painterly botanical garden panorama — layered ferns, hydrangea, foliage receding into mist on deep teal-green ground; fine-art scenery, single colorway. NO birds.", "colorway": "Deep teal-green garden", "targetTier": "mural commercial_print $795", "settlement": "SAFE — no birds/butterflies, non-tropical", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-arch-01", "lane": "Mid-century arch geometric", "title": "Terracotta Arcade", "prompt": "Original mid-century-modern repeat of overlapping arch motifs, flat matte shapes with subtle paper grain, rhythmic column layout; boho-minimal register matching the current Etsy bestseller shape.", "colorway": "Terracotta + beige + rust", "targetTier": "digital_single_use $149", "settlement": "SAFE — abstract geometric", "status": "new-2026-07-13" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-toile-01", "lane": "Toile de Jouy (saturated)", "title": "Meadow Toile", "prompt": "Original toile-de-jouy pastoral scene — hand-engraved-look vignettes of meadow, trees, cottages and figures in a single-color line engraving on cream; classic toile rhythm. NO birds. Offer in oxblood, forest-green, and navy colorways.", "colorway": "Oxblood line on cream", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-deco-01", "lane": "Chartreuse Art-Deco geometric", "title": "Gilded Fan Deco", "prompt": "Original Art-Deco geometric of repeating fan/sunburst arcs and stepped chevrons, metallic-gold linework, 1920s Gatsby revival, crisp symmetry, no plants no leaves no florals.", "colorway": "Metallic gold on chartreuse", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE — abstract geometric", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt (priority lowered)" }
+  ],
+  "topPriorities": [
+    "1. Equestrian/horse lane (horse-01/02) — new HIGH demand signal with a hard seasonal deadline (Year of the Horse, Feb 2027; list by Q4 2026)",
+    "2. Tactile texture + quiet-luxury tone-on-tone (texture-01/02) — highest-volume gap, unfilled two scans running",
+    "3. Animal-skin prints (animalprint-01/02) — clearest whitespace vs our character-animal strength, re-confirmed",
+    "4. Circuscore nursery (nursery-01) — direct reuse of our proven character hand in a named 2026 nursery trend",
+    "5. Moody plaid (plaid-01) — cheap single-design fill of a named Etsy bestseller lane with zero coverage"
   ]
 }
diff --git a/memos/trend-board.md b/memos/trend-board.md
index 6b1a008..48e217a 100644
--- a/memos/trend-board.md
+++ b/memos/trend-board.md
@@ -1,74 +1,36 @@
-# Design Trend Board — First Live Scout Pass
+# Design Trend Board — Refresh Scout Pass
 
-**Scanned:** 2026-07-02 · **Source:** design-trend-scout · **Exa spend:** $0.05 (6 searches + 2 page extracts, logged to cost-ledger)
+**Scanned:** 2026-07-13 · **Source:** design-trend-scout · **Spend:** $0 (Exa MCP was permission-blocked this session; identical queries ran via built-in WebSearch ×8 + curl ×2, both unmetered; $0 logged to cost-ledger)
 
-Scanned Spoonflower, Etsy, Creative Market, Patternbank, Society6/Redbubble, and the 2026 wallpaper-trade press. Cross-referenced against our 24-design WPB catalog to find the lanes that are **selling now but that we don't yet make.**
+Re-scouted Spoonflower, Etsy, Creative Market, Patternbank, Society6/Redbubble, and the 2026 wallpaper trade press. Gap-checked against the 38-design Pattern Vault catalog (`data/catalog.json`).
 
 ---
 
 ## The headline
 
-**Maximalism has fully replaced minimalism, and heritage/floral is where the money is.** Every source says the same thing: buyers want documented-history motifs (William Morris, chinoiserie, arts-and-crafts botanicals), dark moody blooms, and painterly florals — not modern abstract. Our catalog is **heavy on whimsical character-animals and neutral greige grounds** and **empty on almost every top-selling floral/heritage lane.** That mismatch is the opportunity.
+**The catalog hasn't moved since July 2 — every gap from the last board still stands — and this pass adds one genuinely time-sensitive new lane: HORSES.** Patternbank flags equestrian motifs as a defining 2026 statement print riding into the **Lunar Year of the Horse (Feb 2027)**. We already own an adjacent style (the Muybridge motion plates), so this is our fastest credible entry into a trend with a hard deadline: **list by Q4 2026**.
 
----
-
-## Lanes ranked (hot → our coverage)
-
-| # | Lane | Why it's hot | We cover it? |
-|---|------|--------------|:---:|
-| 1 | **Heritage Botanical** (William Morris / arts-and-crafts) | #1 wallpaper trend everywhere; heritage outsells modern abstract | ❌ **GAP** |
-| 2 | **Dark Moody Florals** (nocturnal blooms on dark grounds) | Named the most popular floral look of 2026; hospitality favorite | ❌ **GAP** |
-| 3 | **Painterly Watercolor Florals** | Dominates Society6 trending; Patternbank "Untamed Garden" | ❌ **GAP** |
-| 4 | **Retro / Mid-Century** florals & geometrics | Top Etsy sales velocity (retro + MCM categories lead shops) | ❌ **GAP** |
-| 5 | **Coastal Stripes / Checks / Waves** (la-dolce-vita) | Creative Market's biggest fresh bundles; ticking-stripe on Spoonflower | ❌ **GAP** (we have only formal stripes) |
-| 6 | **Block-Print / Tribal Geometry** (Indienne, primal) | 2 of 6 Patternbank SS26 trends point here | ⚠️ thin (1 design) |
-| 7 | **Woodland Storybook Nursery** (animal toile) | Spoonflower's #1 called-out motif for 2026 | ⚠️ wrong register (ours are adult-humor) |
+The July-2 pilot wave (heritage botanical, moody florals, painterly, retro, coastal) closed the biggest floral/heritage gaps — those lanes now read STRONG/MEDIUM. What's still bleeding demand is everything *textural and non-floral*.
 
-**What we're already strong on** (don't over-invest): whimsical character-animals (our signature, 8+ designs), neutral chinoiserie, formal heritage stripes, abstract greige, one damask.
-
----
-
-## Where our catalog is bleeding demand (the gaps)
-
-We make **zero** heritage botanicals, dark florals, watercolor florals, retro, and casual coastal patterns — five of the top-five selling lanes of the year. Our animal whimsy is genuinely differentiated, but it's a niche; the volume market is buying florals and heritage. **Filling lanes 1–3 alone would roughly triple our floral/heritage footprint from one design (Apricot Garden) to a real collection.**
-
----
+## What changed since July 2
 
-## Top design briefs to generate next (all original, settlement-safe)
+| Change | Detail |
+|---|---|
+| **NEW: Equestrian / Year of the Horse** | Patternbank: horse motifs defining 2026 statement prints. Gap HIGH + TIMELY. 2 briefs (Heritage Canter engraved repeat; Muybridge Gallop extension). |
+| **NEW: Circuscore nursery** | Named top-2 2026 nursery trend (softened big-top stripes/starbursts) + whimsical safari/reading-animals Etsy bestsellers. Our designer-zoo character hand transfers directly. 1 brief. |
+| **NEW: Moody heritage plaid** | "Moody Olive Green Plaid" is a named Etsy peel-and-stick bestseller; we have zero plaids. Cheap fill. 1 brief. |
+| **UPGRADED: Quiet-luxury tone-on-tone** | PatternWeaver #3: sage-on-sage / cream-on-cream micro-geometrics that read as solids. Added a second texture brief (Sage Ogee Whisper) next to Linen Weave. |
+| **DOWNGRADED: Chartreuse Deco** | Weaker signal this pass; brief kept, priority lowered. |
+| **Re-confirmed unfilled** | Animal-skin prints (rose cheetah / verdant tiger named again), tactile texture-effect papers, saturated chinoiserie (branch-only — bird chinoiserie sells huge on Etsy but is settlement-blocked for us), ditsy micro-prints, saturated garden panorama, meadow toile. |
 
-All briefs are written **in our own hand** — they evoke a demand lane, they do **not** copy any marketplace design or artist. Each is dense/edge-to-edge or abstract to steer clear of the settlement's prohibited combo (directional tropical fronds + open space + multi-color + bananas/grapes/birds/butterflies). **Generation stays gated** — these route through the `settlement` gate before any image is made.
-
-**Lane 1 — Heritage Botanical** (target: commercial_print $495)
-1. Arts-and-crafts all-over botanical, intertwining stems + acanthus foliage, flat block-print, forest green + cream on sage.
-2. Trellis-and-vine interlaced network, indigo + oatmeal on ecru.
-3. Dense berry-and-thicket arts-and-crafts repeat, oxblood + antique gold on bottle green.
-
-**Lane 2 — Dark Moody Florals** (target: $495 / mural $795)
-1. Luminous overscale peony/magnolia from shadow, blush + ivory on charcoal-black.
-2. Nocturnal wildflower meadow, ruby + amber on midnight navy.
-3. Mural: climbing-rose scene lit against forest-black, cream + dusk-pink.
-
-**Lane 3 — Painterly Watercolor Florals** (target: digital $149)
-1. Loose watercolor blooms + wispy leaves with gentle negative space, sage + dusty-rose on oat.
-2. Impressionist cottage-garden wash, celadon + apricot on chamois.
-3. Soft-focus wildflower sprigs, powder blue + soft green on ivory.
-
-**Lane 4 — Retro / Mid-Century** (target: digital $149)
-1. Stylized mid-century daisy-and-pod repeat, burnt orange + mustard on olive.
-2. David-Hicks-style hexagon-trellis geometric, chartreuse + navy on forest green.
-3. Warped groovy 70s flower swirls, lime + cream + pink on butter yellow.
-
-**Lane 5 — Coastal Stripes / Checks** (target: digital $149)
-1. Hand-drawn imperfect ticking stripe with linen texture, brown on natural.
-2. Hand-painted imperfect gingham, sky blue + white on sandy beige.
-3. Wavy scallop-and-dot coastal rhythm, terracotta + navy on cream.
-
-*(Lanes 6 block-print and 7 woodland-storybook each carry 3 more briefs in `trend-board.json` — good second-wave targets, especially block-print where we already have a toehold.)*
-
----
+## Priority queue for the orchestrator
 
-## Next move for the orchestrator
+1. **Horse lane** (BRIEF-2026-horse-01/02) — demand + deadline; Q4 2026 listing target.
+2. **Texture / quiet-luxury** (texture-01/02) — highest-volume gap, unfilled two scans running.
+3. **Animal-skin prints** (animalprint-01/02) — clearest whitespace, re-confirmed.
+4. **Circuscore nursery** (nursery-01) — lowest-risk: our proven hand, named trend.
+5. **Moody plaid** (plaid-01) — one cheap design fills a bestseller lane from zero.
 
-Queue **lanes 1–3 first** (highest demand, biggest gap, best price tier). Recommend generating 2–3 originals per lane, running each through the settlement gate, then listing similar-but-original into Pattern Vault + WPB. Full structured data (all 21 briefs, evidence quotes, colorways, tiers) is in `data/trend-board.json`.
+Full structured data (13 lanes, 15 briefs with prompts/colorways/tiers/settlement notes) in `data/trend-board.json`.
 
-**Rails honored:** research was read-only + metered ($0.05, logged); no marketplace design was copied; generation + listing remain Steve-gated — this pass only briefs.
+**Rails honored:** research read-only, $0 spend logged; no marketplace design copied — briefs evoke demand lanes in our own hand; every brief routes through the settlement gate before generation; **generation + listing remain Steve-gated** — this pass only briefs.

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