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design-trend-scout: refresh trend board 2026-07-20 (correct Year-of-Horse timing, +checkerboard lane, reframe nursery)

f053b3de06f4a90e4e937bdb4151a84f72a846bb · 2026-07-20 06:35:18 -0700 · steve@designerwallcoverings.com

Files touched

• M data/trend-board.json
• M memos/trend-board.md

Diff

commit f053b3de06f4a90e4e937bdb4151a84f72a846bb
Author: steve@designerwallcoverings.com <steve@designerwallcoverings.com>
Date:   Mon Jul 20 06:35:18 2026 -0700

    design-trend-scout: refresh trend board 2026-07-20 (correct Year-of-Horse timing, +checkerboard lane, reframe nursery)
---
 data/trend-board.json | 87 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++------------------------
 memos/trend-board.md  | 36 +++++++++++----------
 2 files changed, 65 insertions(+), 58 deletions(-)

diff --git a/data/trend-board.json b/data/trend-board.json
index 4a827a9..a74107a 100644
--- a/data/trend-board.json
+++ b/data/trend-board.json
@@ -1,57 +1,62 @@
 {
-  "scannedAt": "2026-07-13",
+  "scannedAt": "2026-07-20",
   "source": "design-trend-scout",
   "spendUsd": 0,
-  "spendNote": "$0 (local/free). Exa MCP was permission-blocked in this non-interactive session, so the scout ran the same marketplace queries via built-in WebSearch (8 calls) + 2 curl page-extracts — both unmetered. No paid API calls; $0 entry logged to cost-ledger.jsonl.",
+  "spendNote": "$0 (local/free). Exa MCP was permission-blocked again in this non-interactive session (same as the 2026-07-13 pass), so the scout ran 11 marketplace/trend queries via built-in WebSearch — unmetered. No paid API calls; $0 entry logged to cost-ledger.jsonl. Est. had Exa run: ~11 x $0.005 = ~$0.055 (well under the $2 cap).",
   "sources": [
-    "spoonflower.com/en/shop/top-sellers + /en/inspiration/collections (lanes: feminine florals, whimsical kids, lush tropical, maritime/coastal, Mediterranean sun-washed, earthy botanicals/block-prints/global motifs, heritage plaids+florals)",
-    "etsy.com/market/wallpaper_peel_and_stick + /market/best_selling_seamless_pattern (bestsellers: medieval secret-garden dark botanical, boho vintage floral, chinoiserie bird&butterfly murals, mid-century arch terracotta/beige, moody olive plaid, gothic botanical apothecary, antique French tiles, whimsical safari nursery murals)",
-    "creativemarket.com/trends + patternweaver.ai/blog/pattern-design-trends (10 x 2026 trends: tactile maximalism, neo-folk revival, quiet-luxury tone-on-tone textures, AI-native, biophilic abstracts, retro digital/Y2K, hand-drawn imperfection, micro patterns, earth+mineral, collections-over-singles)",
-    "patternbank.com trends (SS26 catwalk + PV AW26-27: HORSE motifs rising ahead of Year of the Horse 2027, camouflage comeback, ditsy florals back big, broad decorative shift away from minimalism)",
-    "society6.com/collections/wall-art-new-trending + redbubble (abstract landscapes, boho warm tones/organic shapes, coastal light palettes, earthy tones, hand-drawn illustration)",
-    "livingetc.com + countryandtownhouse.com + selectedwallpapers.com + wallsrepublic.com + appliedcoverings.com + totalwallcovering.com wallpaper-trends-2026 (romantic maximalism, painterly panoramas/garden vistas, animal print with a twist, texture-effect papers incl. faux marble/plaster, whole-room deep tones: inky navy/charcoal/forest/aubergine/oxblood)",
-    "theeverymom.com nursery-wallpaper-trends-2026 (circuscore + boho nursery; whimsical safari/woodland/reading-animals bestsellers)"
+    "spoonflower.com/en/shop/top-sellers + /shop/best-sellers + /shop/2026-trends + /inspiration/collections (lanes: feminine florals, whimsical motifs, plaids+florals heritage, lush tropical, maritime/coastal, Mediterranean sun-washed, earthy botanicals + global motifs, farmhouse Japandi-cottagecore, bold conversational statement)",
+    "etsy.com/market/wallpaper_peel_and_stick + /market/best_selling_seamless_pattern (bestsellers: Woodland-Animals-Reading nursery mural, Whimsical Jungle safari mural, Cottagecore Mushroom + fern/wildflower, Abstract Bold Botanical custom-color, watercolor florals, botanical murals, Chinoiserie, farmhouse florals; digital-pattern bestsellers: night-garden, bookish, tropical, floral/witchy/retro)",
+    "patternbank.com/trends + SS26/AW26-27/SS27 Premiere Vision reports (named themes: 'Smart Geo', 'Animal Kingdom', 'Maxi Floral', 'Monochromatic'; HORSE motifs called out explicitly as a defining 2026 statement print riding the Year of the Horse)",
+    "patternweaver.ai pattern-design-trends-2026 (9 surface trends incl. hand-drawn revival with character motifs, craft/knit revival cottagecore, micro-patterns, tone-on-tone) + creativemarket.com/trends 'Next in Design 2026' (Hand-drawn Revival, 'Slowly Knit' craft cottagecore)",
+    "wallpaper 2026 trade press: appliedcoverings (12 styles), countryandtownhouse, tecnografica (5 trends), canvasandivy, hackrea, meltflexai (top 8), selectedwallpapers, cmtextiles 'Wallpaper Is Back', paolomoschino, tetsipmedia, worldofwallpaper, wallsrepublic, artscape-inc, hanodecor, wallpaperdirect (romantic maximalism, biophilic maximalism/oversized-to-ceiling botanicals, 70s geometric protagonist in orange/chocolate/mustard/olive/terracotta, texture 'fabric-on-the-wall' grasscloth/linen/embossed, tone-on-tone, whole-room deep jewel tones)",
+    "equestrian / Year of the Horse press wave: homesandgardens 'Forget Quiet Luxury, Equestrian Decor Is the New Rich Trend of 2026', apartmenttherapy 'next big heritage trend', housedigest 'luxurious touch in 2026', wallpaper.com 'Year of the Fire Horse', AOL/Yahoo — Ralph-Lauren aesthetic, cognac/leather/tack-room, 'subtle horsey cues' over cartoon ponies, darker vintage-inspired",
+    "nursery: theeverymom (Spoonflower), nurserydesignstudio, nestig, hackrea, rebelwalls, livetteswallpaper ('Playful Whimsy' storybook + hand-drawn woodland animals, joyful-not-overstimulating; sage/moss neutral-green + peach-fuzz accent)",
+    "society6.com/collections/wall-art-new-trending + redbubble + amybenblog wall-art-2026 (minimalist line art, soft organic abstracts, earthy tones/organic shapes, vintage/travel posters + retro typography)",
+    "emerging-motif scan (patternweaver + artscape + wallsrepublic + hanodecor): CHECKERBOARD cream/sage cottagecore, grown-up cottagecore (warmed-muddied: sage>mint, dusty-rose>bubblegum, ochre>yellow, 'soft mushroom/aged linen'), William-Morris-adjacent flora, micro ditsy"
   ],
-  "market": "Wallpaper firmly back for 2026; decorative maximalism still displacing minimalism (print gaining on fashion runways too, per Patternbank). 2026 palette: earthy neutrals (beige/cream/sand) + sage + warm brown for calm rooms; whole-room deep tones (inky navy, charcoal, forest, aubergine, oxblood) for drama; nature palettes pushed to mossy green, clay ochre, muted terracotta, deep mineral blue.",
-  "catalogCovers": ["heritage botanical/trellis (4)", "dark moody florals (5 colorways)", "chinoiserie branch neutral (2)", "damask", "heritage stripes (2)", "mid-century retro", "coastal stripe", "block-print geometry (2)", "geometric lattice", "animal CHARACTER whimsy (7: foxes/sloths/raccoons/monkeys/designer-zoo)", "Muybridge motion plates (2)", "cactus/southwest + murals (2)", "painterly florals (2)", "toile panoramic (chamois)", "coastal mural panels (2)", "greige/chamois abstracts (2)", "ditsy (1)"],
-  "catalogNote": "Catalog unchanged since the 2026-07-02 scan (38 designs) — none of the July-2 briefs have been generated yet, so every July-2 gap still stands. This pass re-confirms them and adds three new lanes (equestrian, circuscore nursery, moody plaid) plus one upgrade (quiet-luxury tone-on-tone).",
+  "market": "Wallpaper firmly back for 2026; the year reads as 'maximalism AND quiet luxury coexisting' (patternweaver). Two engines: (1) romantic/biophilic MAXIMALISM — oversized botanicals to the ceiling, layered heritage florals + damasks, whole-room deep jewel tones (inky navy, forest, oxblood, aubergine, charcoal); (2) QUIET-LUXURY TEXTURE — 'texture takes centre stage', fabric-on-the-wall grasscloth/linen/embossed, tone-on-tone within one color family. The defining timely statement print is EQUESTRIAN (Year of the Fire Horse, LIVE now).",
+  "palette": "2026 warmed-and-muddied 'grown-up cottagecore': sage green (the new neutral) not mint, dusty rose not bubblegum, ochre not bright yellow, plus soft mushroom / aged linen / clay / warm beige / sand / taupe for calm rooms. Whole-room drama palette: inky navy, forest, charcoal, aubergine, oxblood. Equestrian palette: cognac, saddle-brown, leather-tan on cream. Nursery accent: sage/moss + peach-fuzz.",
+  "catalogCovers": ["heritage botanical/trellis (Arden, Indigo Trellis, Rosewater, Calico Vine ditsy)", "dark moody florals (Nocturne x7 colorways: ink/plum/emerald/crimson/teal/amethyst/blush)", "heritage noir botanical (Gilded Bough)", "chinoiserie branch neutral (40177/40178) + celadon monkeys", "damask (Terracotta Atelier)", "heritage stripes (oxblood 40172, brass 40171)", "mid-century retro (Atomic Meadow)", "coastal stripe (Tide Lines)", "block-print geometry (Folk Tile, Prussian block-leaf)", "geometric lattice (Greige Lattice)", "animal CHARACTER whimsy (foxes/raccoons/sloths/monkeys/designer-zoo x7)", "Muybridge motion plates (56250/56249)", "cactus/southwest + murals (57718, 38848)", "painterly florals (Cottage Wash, Apricot Garden)", "toile panoramic (40138 chamois)", "coastal mural panels (Monterey 57668/57669)", "greige/chamois abstracts (10024/10006)"],
+  "catalogNote": "Catalog UNCHANGED since the 2026-07-02 build (38 designs, all pricingStatus:DRAFT) — none of the July briefs have been generated yet, so every prior gap still stands. This pass (a) CORRECTS a factual error in the last board (Year of the Horse is 2026, not 2027 — it's live now), (b) re-confirms the standing gaps with a fuller trade-press wave, (c) adds one new lane (cottagecore checkerboard), and (d) reframes the nursery lane (circuscore -> broader 'storybook playful whimsy').",
   "trends": [
-    { "lane": "Romantic maximalist heritage florals", "why": "Still the #1 named 2026 trend (Livingetc, C&TH, Selected): layered florals + damasks + historical patterns in saturated color", "priceBand": "$149-495", "haveCoverage": "STRONG (Arden, Nocturne series, damask, painterly florals)", "gap": "low" },
-    { "lane": "Tactile texture-effect / quiet-luxury tone-on-tone", "why": "Named across every 2026 forecast: grasscloth-effect, linen weaves, plaster/faux-marble, soft embossing; PatternWeaver #3 = tone-on-tone micro-geometrics (sage-on-sage, cream-on-cream) that read solid from a distance. Highest-volume commercial workhorse.", "priceBand": "$149-495", "haveCoverage": "NONE", "gap": "HIGH — carried over from July 2, still unfilled" },
-    { "lane": "Animal-skin print with a twist", "why": "Re-confirmed this pass: rose-hued cheetah / verdant green tiger named again in 2026 trend press; 'refined animal prints' explicitly cited as selling", "priceBand": "$149-495", "haveCoverage": "NONE (we have animal characters, not skin prints)", "gap": "HIGH — carried over, still unfilled" },
-    { "lane": "Equestrian / horse motifs (Year of the Horse)", "why": "NEW: Patternbank flags horse motifs as a defining 2026 statement print, momentum building into Lunar Year of the Horse (Feb 2027). Seasonal tailwind with a hard deadline — list by Q4 2026.", "priceBand": "$149-495", "haveCoverage": "ADJACENT only (Muybridge motion plates 56250/56249)", "gap": "HIGH + TIMELY" },
-    { "lane": "Dark moody botanical / gothic apothecary", "why": "Etsy bestsellers: 'Medieval Secret Garden', 'Moody Black Floral Gothic Botanical Apothecary'; whole-room deep-tone trend feeds it", "priceBand": "$149-395", "haveCoverage": "STRONG (5 Nocturne colorways)", "gap": "low" },
-    { "lane": "Moody heritage plaid", "why": "NEW as its own lane: 'Moody Olive Green Plaid' is a named Etsy peel-and-stick bestseller; Spoonflower pushing plaids+florals heritage collections", "priceBand": "$149-295", "haveCoverage": "NONE", "gap": "medium-HIGH — cheap to fill, zero coverage" },
-    { "lane": "Neo-folk revival / block-print global", "why": "PatternWeaver #2 + Spoonflower 'earthy botanicals, block prints, global motifs in rich colors': folk structural DNA rebuilt in modern palettes (terracotta + electric blue)", "priceBand": "$149-395", "haveCoverage": "LOW (Folk Tile + Prussian block-leaf)", "gap": "MEDIUM-HIGH" },
-    { "lane": "Chinoiserie (branch/floral — NO birds)", "why": "Etsy chinoiserie bestsellers are mostly bird-&-butterfly murals (settlement-blocked for us); our lane is branch/blossom-only, which still sells — French-country tree-branch murals in cream/sage are top listings", "priceBand": "$149-795", "haveCoverage": "MEDIUM (2 neutral branch designs)", "gap": "medium — saturated-ground version + a branch MURAL still missing" },
-    { "lane": "Small-scale ditsy / micro-prints", "why": "Patternbank: ditsy florals 'back in a big way' on catwalks; PatternWeaver #8 micro-patterns = commercial workhorse; easy multi-colorway volume on Spoonflower", "priceBand": "$149", "haveCoverage": "LOW (Calico Vine only)", "gap": "medium" },
-    { "lane": "Painterly scenic murals / garden panoramas", "why": "2026 forecasts converge on painterly hand-inspired scenes: botanical panoramas, classical garden vistas, soft landscapes", "priceBand": "$249-795", "haveCoverage": "MEDIUM (Monterey coastal x2, cactus mural, toile panel)", "gap": "medium — saturated garden panorama still missing" },
-    { "lane": "Circuscore + whimsical nursery", "why": "NEW: named top-2 2026 nursery trend (softened vintage circus: stripes, starbursts, big-top) + whimsical safari/woodland/reading-animals bestsellers on Etsy/Spoonflower", "priceBand": "$149-395", "haveCoverage": "MEDIUM (strong adult-register animal characters; zero circuscore geometry, zero nursery-register colorways)", "gap": "medium — our character hand transfers directly" },
-    { "lane": "Mid-century arch geometric (terracotta/beige)", "why": "Specific named Etsy bestseller shape this pass; boho organic-shapes trend on Society6 agrees", "priceBand": "$149-295", "haveCoverage": "LOW (Atomic Meadow is a different retro register)", "gap": "medium" },
-    { "lane": "Chartreuse + Art-Deco metallic geometric", "why": "Carried from July 2 (chartreuse revival, Deco metallics); weaker signal this pass — keep the brief, lower priority", "priceBand": "$149-495", "haveCoverage": "LOW", "gap": "medium (downgraded from HIGH)" }
+    { "lane": "Equestrian / Year of the (Fire) Horse", "why": "ELEVATED to #1: what was a single Patternbank flag on 2026-07-13 is now a full mid-year press wave (Homes&Gardens 'the new rich trend of 2026', Apartment Therapy 'next big heritage trend', House Digest, Wallpaper.com 'Year of the Fire Horse'). TIMING CORRECTED: 2026 IS the Year of the Horse (LNY Feb 17 2026 — already underway); the trend is peaking NOW, not a future deadline. Aesthetic = Ralph-Lauren tack-room, cognac/leather, 'subtle horsey cues' over cartoon ponies, darker vintage register.", "priceBand": "$149-495", "haveCoverage": "ADJACENT only (Muybridge motion plates 56250/56249 give us credible equity)", "gap": "HIGHEST — biggest whitespace x hottest current press x we own an adjacent style. List ASAP." },
+    { "lane": "Tactile texture-effect / quiet-luxury tone-on-tone", "why": "RE-CONFIRMED and stronger: 2026 trade press near-unanimous that 'texture takes centre stage' / 'fabric-on-the-wall' — grasscloth, linen weave, embossed, metallic; tone-on-tone within one color family is THE calm-room workhorse. Highest commercial volume of any lane.", "priceBand": "$149-495", "haveCoverage": "NONE", "gap": "HIGH — carried unfilled across THREE scans" },
+    { "lane": "Animal-skin print / 'Animal Kingdom' with a twist", "why": "Patternbank names 'Animal Kingdom' as an SS26/AW26-27 theme; 'refined animal prints' (rose cheetah / verdant tiger) re-cited in 2026 press. Distinct from our character-animal strength.", "priceBand": "$149-495", "haveCoverage": "NONE (we have animal CHARACTERS, not skin prints)", "gap": "HIGH — clearest whitespace vs our strength, re-confirmed 3rd scan" },
+    { "lane": "Storybook playful-whimsy nursery", "why": "REFRAMED (was 'circuscore'): 2026's named nursery trend is broader 'Playful Whimsy' — hand-drawn woodland/safari animals, storybook scenes, 'joyful without being overstimulating', muted sage/moss + peach-fuzz. Woodland-Animals-Reading + Whimsical-Jungle are literal Etsy peel-and-stick bestsellers. Our designer-zoo character hand transfers DIRECTLY — lowest-risk fill.", "priceBand": "$149-395", "haveCoverage": "MEDIUM (strong adult-register characters; zero nursery-register colorways / storybook scenes)", "gap": "medium-HIGH — proven hand, named trend, just needs nursery palette + storybook staging" },
+    { "lane": "Cottagecore checkerboard", "why": "NEW this pass: checkerboard named as an adaptable 2026 motif — 'cream and sage checker reads cottagecore' (neutral geometry, color does the talking). We have zero checks. One cheap design opens a whole geometric lane.", "priceBand": "$149-295", "haveCoverage": "NONE", "gap": "medium-HIGH — cheap fill of a named motif with zero coverage" },
+    { "lane": "Romantic / biophilic maximalist heritage florals", "why": "Still the #1 named 2026 mega-trend: oversized botanicals to the ceiling, layered florals + damask + historical patterns in saturated color; 'grown-up cottagecore' warmed-muddied palette (William-Morris-adjacent).", "priceBand": "$149-495", "haveCoverage": "STRONG (Arden, Nocturne series, damask, painterly florals, heritage noir)", "gap": "low — but a saturated OVERSIZED-scale colorway is thin vs the 'to-the-ceiling' framing" },
+    { "lane": "Dark moody botanical / whole-room deep tones", "why": "Re-confirmed: whole-room jewel tones (inky navy, forest, oxblood, aubergine, charcoal) a defining 2026 drama move; Etsy gothic/night-garden botanicals bestselling.", "priceBand": "$149-395", "haveCoverage": "STRONG (7 Nocturne colorways + Gilded Bough)", "gap": "low" },
+    { "lane": "Neo-folk / block-print / grown-up cottagecore craft", "why": "PatternWeaver 'Hand-drawn Revival' + CreativeMarket 'Slowly Knit' craft revival + Etsy Vintage-Block bestsellers; cottagecore 'grown up' into real textile heritage (Liberty ditsy, French provincial, block print).", "priceBand": "$149-395", "haveCoverage": "LOW (Folk Tile + Prussian block-leaf)", "gap": "medium-HIGH" },
+    { "lane": "Small-scale ditsy / micro-print", "why": "Re-confirmed: 'micro-scale patterns, ditsy florals, tiny geometrics increasingly popular'; easy multi-colorway Spoonflower volume; grown-up-cottagecore palette.", "priceBand": "$149", "haveCoverage": "LOW (Calico Vine only)", "gap": "medium" },
+    { "lane": "Chinoiserie (branch/floral — NO birds)", "why": "Chinoiserie + botanical murals re-cited as Etsy bestsellers; the bird-&-butterfly versions that sell huge are settlement-blocked for us, so our lane stays branch/blossom-only — still sells in cream/sage French-country register.", "priceBand": "$149-795", "haveCoverage": "MEDIUM (2 neutral branch designs)", "gap": "medium — saturated-ground version + a branch MURAL still missing" },
+    { "lane": "Painterly scenic murals / garden panoramas", "why": "Biophilic maximalism = oversized botanical murals / softly-layered garden vistas; a defining 2026 feature-wall move.", "priceBand": "$249-795", "haveCoverage": "MEDIUM (Monterey coastal x2, cactus mural, toile panel)", "gap": "medium — saturated garden panorama still missing" },
+    { "lane": "70s geometric protagonist (terracotta/mustard/olive)", "why": "Re-confirmed harder: 'geometric wallpaper becomes the absolute protagonist', monumental scale, 70s palette (orange, chocolate, mustard, olive, terracotta) in strong contrast — beyond our single retro design.", "priceBand": "$149-295", "haveCoverage": "LOW (Atomic Meadow only)", "gap": "medium" },
+    { "lane": "Chartreuse + Art-Deco metallic geometric", "why": "Carried from prior boards; weak signal again this pass — keep the brief, low priority.", "priceBand": "$149-495", "haveCoverage": "LOW", "gap": "low (priority held down)" }
   ],
   "briefs": [
-    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-horse-01", "lane": "Equestrian / Year of the Horse", "title": "Heritage Canter", "prompt": "Original hand-engraved-look equestrian repeat: galloping and cantering horse silhouettes with flowing manes, alternating with laurel sprigs and heritage medallions, single-color line engraving on cream; classic sporting-print rhythm, dignified not cartoonish. NO birds, NO butterflies.", "colorway": "Oxblood line on cream (also ink-navy, forest)", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE — horses are not a prohibited element; pastoral, non-tropical", "deadline": "List by Q4 2026 for Lunar New Year (Feb 2027) demand", "status": "new-2026-07-13" },
-    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-horse-02", "lane": "Equestrian / Year of the Horse", "title": "Muybridge Gallop — Oxblood", "prompt": "Extend our existing Muybridge sequential-motion-plate style into a dedicated horse-gait study: sepia sequential frames of a horse in motion arranged in scholarly plate rows on an oxblood ground; ties into existing 56250/56249 line.", "colorway": "Sepia plates on oxblood", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE", "status": "new-2026-07-13" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-horse-01", "lane": "Equestrian / Year of the Horse", "title": "Heritage Canter", "prompt": "Original hand-engraved-look equestrian repeat: galloping and cantering horse silhouettes with flowing manes, alternating with laurel sprigs and heritage medallions, single-color line engraving on cream; classic sporting-print rhythm, dignified not cartoonish. NO birds, NO butterflies.", "colorway": "Oxblood line on cream (also ink-navy, forest, cognac)", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE — horses are not a prohibited element; pastoral, non-tropical", "urgency": "LIVE NOW — Year of the Fire Horse is 2026 (already underway); list ASAP to ride the current mid-year press wave", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt (timing corrected)" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-horse-02", "lane": "Equestrian / Year of the Horse", "title": "Muybridge Gallop — Oxblood", "prompt": "Extend our existing Muybridge sequential-motion-plate style into a dedicated horse-gait study: sepia sequential frames of a horse in motion arranged in scholarly plate rows on an oxblood ground; ties into existing 56250/56249 line.", "colorway": "Sepia plates on oxblood", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE", "urgency": "LIVE NOW", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-horse-03", "lane": "Equestrian / Year of the Horse (subtle register)", "title": "Cognac Tack Room", "prompt": "Original heritage foulard/neat repeat of SUBTLE equestrian cues — snaffle bits, stirrups, buckled straps and laurel — in a tight tailored small-scale layout on cream; Ralph-Lauren tack-room register, 'whispering wealth', no literal horse figures. Reads as a refined menswear foulard.", "colorway": "Cognac + saddle-brown on cream (also forest, navy)", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE — tack objects + laurel, no prohibited elements", "urgency": "LIVE NOW — captures the 'subtle horsey cues over cartoon ponies' press framing", "status": "new-2026-07-20" },
     { "id": "BRIEF-2026-texture-01", "lane": "Tactile texture / quiet luxury", "title": "Linen Weave Plain", "prompt": "Original photoreal woven linen/grasscloth texture as seamless near-plain wallcovering; visible warp/weft slubs; warm greige; illusion-of-tactility.", "colorway": "Warm greige linen", "targetTier": "digital_single_use $149", "settlement": "SAFE — abstract texture", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
-    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-texture-02", "lane": "Tactile texture / quiet luxury", "title": "Sage Ogee Whisper", "prompt": "Original tone-on-tone micro-ogee geometric, sage-on-sage with minimal contrast, fine embossed-textile look; reads as a solid from across the room, reveals pattern up close; quiet-luxury register.", "colorway": "Sage on sage (also charcoal-on-black, cream-on-cream)", "targetTier": "digital_single_use $149 x3 colorways", "settlement": "SAFE — abstract geometric", "status": "new-2026-07-13" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-texture-02", "lane": "Tactile texture / quiet luxury", "title": "Sage Ogee Whisper", "prompt": "Original tone-on-tone micro-ogee geometric, sage-on-sage with minimal contrast, fine embossed-textile look; reads as a solid from across the room, reveals pattern up close; quiet-luxury register.", "colorway": "Sage on sage (also charcoal-on-black, mushroom-on-linen)", "targetTier": "digital_single_use $149 x3 colorways", "settlement": "SAFE — abstract geometric", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
     { "id": "BRIEF-2026-animalprint-01", "lane": "Animal-skin print with a twist", "title": "Rosewood Cheetah", "prompt": "Original seamless repeat of stylised cheetah-rosette markings, hand-painted look, scattered on a warm plaster ground; skin-print abstraction only, no animal figures; rose-clay and cocoa spots on oatmeal.", "colorway": "Rose-clay + cocoa on oatmeal", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE — abstract skin markings, no prohibited elements", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
     { "id": "BRIEF-2026-animalprint-02", "lane": "Animal-skin print with a twist", "title": "Verdant Tiger Stripe", "prompt": "Original painterly tiger-stripe skin-print abstraction (no animal figure) in forest and moss green on deep ink; brushy irregular hand-inked stripes reading as luxe textile.", "colorway": "Forest + moss on ink", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
-    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-nursery-01", "lane": "Circuscore nursery", "title": "Big Top Parade", "prompt": "Original softened-vintage-circus nursery repeat in our designer-zoo character hand: calm illustrated animals (bears, foxes, elephants — NO birds) in a gentle big-top parade with soft stripes, starbursts and pennants; muted modern palette, not overstimulating.", "colorway": "Dusty red + sand + sage on cream", "targetTier": "commercial_print $395", "settlement": "SAFE — character animals (non-bird), geometric circus elements", "status": "new-2026-07-13" },
-    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-plaid-01", "lane": "Moody heritage plaid", "title": "Olive Bothy Plaid", "prompt": "Original moody heritage plaid/tartan in olive, charcoal and bronze with soft woven-texture illusion; menswear-flannel warmth for dens and libraries; fills the moody-plaid Etsy bestseller lane we have zero coverage in.", "colorway": "Olive + charcoal + bronze", "targetTier": "digital_single_use $149", "settlement": "SAFE — woven geometric", "status": "new-2026-07-13" },
-    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-folk-01", "lane": "Neo-folk revival", "title": "Tulip Kilim Folk", "prompt": "Original neo-folk repeat extracting the structural DNA of Eastern-European folk florals — symmetric tulip-and-heart wreath motifs, simplified flat forms, visible block-print texture — rebuilt in a modern palette; dense symmetric layout, non-tropical, no birds.", "colorway": "Muted terracotta + electric blue on bone", "targetTier": "commercial_print $395", "settlement": "SAFE — symmetric folk florals, no prohibited elements", "status": "new-2026-07-13" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-nursery-01", "lane": "Storybook playful-whimsy nursery", "title": "Woodland Storybook", "prompt": "Original storybook-nursery repeat in our designer-zoo character hand: hand-drawn woodland animals (bears, foxes, rabbits, deer — NO birds) reading, napping and playing among soft ferns and toadstools; gentle storybook staging, calm and joyful not overstimulating. Muted modern nursery palette.", "colorway": "Sage + moss + peach-fuzz on warm cream", "targetTier": "commercial_print $395", "settlement": "SAFE — character animals (non-bird), botanical staging (non-directional, non-tropical)", "status": "reframed-2026-07-20 (was circuscore Big-Top Parade)" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-check-01", "lane": "Cottagecore checkerboard", "title": "Sage Cottage Check", "prompt": "Original cottagecore checkerboard: hand-painted soft-edged check squares with a faint brushy/linen texture, cream-and-sage; casual farmhouse warmth, geometry neutral so color carries it. Offer alt colorways.", "colorway": "Cream + sage (also cream+dusty-rose, cream+ochre, cream+cognac)", "targetTier": "digital_single_use $149 x4 colorways", "settlement": "SAFE — abstract geometric", "status": "new-2026-07-20" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-plaid-01", "lane": "Moody heritage plaid", "title": "Olive Bothy Plaid", "prompt": "Original moody heritage plaid/tartan in olive, charcoal and bronze with soft woven-texture illusion; menswear-flannel warmth for dens and libraries.", "colorway": "Olive + charcoal + bronze", "targetTier": "digital_single_use $149", "settlement": "SAFE — woven geometric", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-folk-01", "lane": "Neo-folk revival", "title": "Tulip Kilim Folk", "prompt": "Original neo-folk repeat extracting the structural DNA of Eastern-European folk florals — symmetric tulip-and-heart wreath motifs, simplified flat forms, visible block-print texture — rebuilt in a modern palette; dense symmetric layout, non-tropical, no birds.", "colorway": "Muted terracotta + electric blue on bone", "targetTier": "commercial_print $395", "settlement": "SAFE — symmetric folk florals, no prohibited elements", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
     { "id": "BRIEF-2026-chinoiserie-sat-01", "lane": "Chinoiserie (saturated, no birds)", "title": "Nocturne Garden Chinoiserie", "prompt": "Original hand-painted-look chinoiserie of flowering branches, peonies and boughs on deep forest-green ground; gold + blush blooms. STRICTLY branches + flowers, NO birds, NO butterflies.", "colorway": "Gold + blush on forest green", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE — no birds/butterflies", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
-    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-ditsy-01", "lane": "Small-scale ditsy micro-print", "title": "Meadow Ditsy", "prompt": "Original tiny-scale ditsy floral micro-print, hand-drawn sprigs and dots evenly scattered on open cream ground; sized for small rooms; multiple colorways.", "colorway": "Sage + terracotta sprigs on bone", "targetTier": "digital_single_use $149", "settlement": "SAFE — non-directional sprigs", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
-    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-mural-01", "lane": "Painterly scenic mural", "title": "Saturated Garden Panorama", "prompt": "Original full-wall painterly botanical garden panorama — layered ferns, hydrangea, foliage receding into mist on deep teal-green ground; fine-art scenery, single colorway. NO birds.", "colorway": "Deep teal-green garden", "targetTier": "mural commercial_print $795", "settlement": "SAFE — no birds/butterflies, non-tropical", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
-    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-arch-01", "lane": "Mid-century arch geometric", "title": "Terracotta Arcade", "prompt": "Original mid-century-modern repeat of overlapping arch motifs, flat matte shapes with subtle paper grain, rhythmic column layout; boho-minimal register matching the current Etsy bestseller shape.", "colorway": "Terracotta + beige + rust", "targetTier": "digital_single_use $149", "settlement": "SAFE — abstract geometric", "status": "new-2026-07-13" },
-    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-toile-01", "lane": "Toile de Jouy (saturated)", "title": "Meadow Toile", "prompt": "Original toile-de-jouy pastoral scene — hand-engraved-look vignettes of meadow, trees, cottages and figures in a single-color line engraving on cream; classic toile rhythm. NO birds. Offer in oxblood, forest-green, and navy colorways.", "colorway": "Oxblood line on cream", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
-    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-deco-01", "lane": "Chartreuse Art-Deco geometric", "title": "Gilded Fan Deco", "prompt": "Original Art-Deco geometric of repeating fan/sunburst arcs and stepped chevrons, metallic-gold linework, 1920s Gatsby revival, crisp symmetry, no plants no leaves no florals.", "colorway": "Metallic gold on chartreuse", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE — abstract geometric", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt (priority lowered)" }
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-ditsy-01", "lane": "Small-scale ditsy micro-print", "title": "Meadow Ditsy", "prompt": "Original tiny-scale ditsy floral micro-print, hand-drawn sprigs and dots evenly scattered on open cream ground; sized for small rooms; multiple colorways in the grown-up-cottagecore palette.", "colorway": "Sage + dusty-rose sprigs on bone (also ochre, mushroom)", "targetTier": "digital_single_use $149", "settlement": "SAFE — non-directional sprigs", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-mural-01", "lane": "Painterly scenic mural", "title": "Saturated Garden Panorama", "prompt": "Original full-wall painterly botanical garden panorama — layered ferns, hydrangea, foliage receding into mist on deep teal-green ground; fine-art scenery, single colorway, oversized biophilic scale. NO birds.", "colorway": "Deep teal-green garden", "targetTier": "mural commercial_print $795", "settlement": "SAFE — no birds/butterflies, non-tropical", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-arch-01", "lane": "70s geometric protagonist", "title": "Terracotta Arcade", "prompt": "Original 70s-revival geometric of overlapping arch/arcade motifs at monumental scale, flat matte shapes with subtle paper grain, rhythmic column layout, strong-contrast 70s palette.", "colorway": "Terracotta + mustard + chocolate + olive", "targetTier": "digital_single_use $149", "settlement": "SAFE — abstract geometric", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-toile-01", "lane": "Toile de Jouy (saturated)", "title": "Meadow Toile", "prompt": "Original toile-de-jouy pastoral scene — hand-engraved-look vignettes of meadow, trees, cottages and figures in a single-color line engraving on cream; classic toile rhythm. NO birds. Offer oxblood, forest-green, navy colorways.", "colorway": "Oxblood line on cream", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt" },
+    { "id": "BRIEF-2026-deco-01", "lane": "Chartreuse Art-Deco geometric", "title": "Gilded Fan Deco", "prompt": "Original Art-Deco geometric of repeating fan/sunburst arcs and stepped chevrons, metallic-gold linework, 1920s Gatsby revival, crisp symmetry, no plants no leaves no florals.", "colorway": "Metallic gold on chartreuse", "targetTier": "commercial_print $495", "settlement": "SAFE — abstract geometric", "status": "carried-over-unbuilt (low priority)" }
   ],
   "topPriorities": [
-    "1. Equestrian/horse lane (horse-01/02) — new HIGH demand signal with a hard seasonal deadline (Year of the Horse, Feb 2027; list by Q4 2026)",
-    "2. Tactile texture + quiet-luxury tone-on-tone (texture-01/02) — highest-volume gap, unfilled two scans running",
-    "3. Animal-skin prints (animalprint-01/02) — clearest whitespace vs our character-animal strength, re-confirmed",
-    "4. Circuscore nursery (nursery-01) — direct reuse of our proven character hand in a named 2026 nursery trend",
-    "5. Moody plaid (plaid-01) — cheap single-design fill of a named Etsy bestseller lane with zero coverage"
+    "1. Equestrian / Year of the Horse (horse-01/02/03) — LIVE NOW: 2026 IS the Year of the Fire Horse (timing corrected from the prior board), press peaking mid-year, and we own the adjacent Muybridge equity. List ASAP. Add the cognac 'subtle-cue' foulard (horse-03) alongside the two engraved briefs.",
+    "2. Tactile texture + quiet-luxury tone-on-tone (texture-01/02) — THE dominant 2026 theme and our biggest gap, unfilled across three scans; highest commercial volume.",
+    "3. Animal-skin prints (animalprint-01/02) — Patternbank 'Animal Kingdom' + refined-animal-print press; clearest whitespace vs our character-animal strength.",
+    "4. Storybook playful-whimsy nursery (nursery-01) — reframed to the actual named 2026 nursery trend; our proven character hand + a sage/moss/peach palette = lowest-risk fill.",
+    "5. Cottagecore checkerboard (check-01) — new named motif, zero coverage, one cheap design opens a whole geometric lane (4 colorways)."
   ]
 }
diff --git a/memos/trend-board.md b/memos/trend-board.md
index 48e217a..13ff641 100644
--- a/memos/trend-board.md
+++ b/memos/trend-board.md
@@ -1,36 +1,38 @@
 # Design Trend Board — Refresh Scout Pass
 
-**Scanned:** 2026-07-13 · **Source:** design-trend-scout · **Spend:** $0 (Exa MCP was permission-blocked this session; identical queries ran via built-in WebSearch ×8 + curl ×2, both unmetered; $0 logged to cost-ledger)
+**Scanned:** 2026-07-20 · **Source:** design-trend-scout · **Spend:** $0 (Exa MCP permission-blocked again this session; 11 identical queries ran via built-in WebSearch, unmetered; $0 logged to cost-ledger. Est. on Exa: ~11 × $0.005 ≈ $0.055, well under the $2 cap)
 
-Re-scouted Spoonflower, Etsy, Creative Market, Patternbank, Society6/Redbubble, and the 2026 wallpaper trade press. Gap-checked against the 38-design Pattern Vault catalog (`data/catalog.json`).
+Re-scouted Spoonflower, Etsy (peel-and-stick + digital seamless), Creative Market, Patternbank, Society6/Redbubble, and the full 2026 wallpaper trade-press wave. Gap-checked against the 38-design Pattern Vault catalog (`data/catalog.json`).
 
 ---
 
 ## The headline
 
-**The catalog hasn't moved since July 2 — every gap from the last board still stands — and this pass adds one genuinely time-sensitive new lane: HORSES.** Patternbank flags equestrian motifs as a defining 2026 statement print riding into the **Lunar Year of the Horse (Feb 2027)**. We already own an adjacent style (the Muybridge motion plates), so this is our fastest credible entry into a trend with a hard deadline: **list by Q4 2026**.
+**The catalog still hasn't moved since July 2 — every prior gap stands — and this pass fixes a factual error plus surfaces two shifts.**
 
-The July-2 pilot wave (heritage botanical, moody florals, painterly, retro, coastal) closed the biggest floral/heritage gaps — those lanes now read STRONG/MEDIUM. What's still bleeding demand is everything *textural and non-floral*.
+1. **Year of the Horse is 2026, not 2027.** The 2026-07-13 board framed equestrian as a *future* deadline ("list by Q4 2026 for Feb 2027"). That was wrong: 2026 **is** the Year of the Fire Horse (Lunar New Year was **Feb 17, 2026** — already underway), and the trend is **peaking right now**. What was a single Patternbank flag a week ago is now a full press wave — Homes & Gardens literally titled it *"Forget Quiet Luxury, Equestrian Decor Is the New Rich Trend of 2026,"* plus Apartment Therapy, House Digest, and Wallpaper.com ("Year of the Fire Horse"). It's the clearest whitespace × hottest current press, and we own adjacent equity (the Muybridge motion plates). **→ #1, list ASAP.**
 
-## What changed since July 2
+2. **Texture/quiet-luxury is now THE dominant theme, still 100% a gap for us.** Near-unanimous 2026 trade press: *"texture takes centre stage," "fabric-on-the-wall"* — grasscloth, linen weave, embossed, tone-on-tone within one color family. Highest commercial volume of any lane; unfilled across **three** scans.
+
+## What changed since July 13
 
 | Change | Detail |
 |---|---|
-| **NEW: Equestrian / Year of the Horse** | Patternbank: horse motifs defining 2026 statement prints. Gap HIGH + TIMELY. 2 briefs (Heritage Canter engraved repeat; Muybridge Gallop extension). |
-| **NEW: Circuscore nursery** | Named top-2 2026 nursery trend (softened big-top stripes/starbursts) + whimsical safari/reading-animals Etsy bestsellers. Our designer-zoo character hand transfers directly. 1 brief. |
-| **NEW: Moody heritage plaid** | "Moody Olive Green Plaid" is a named Etsy peel-and-stick bestseller; we have zero plaids. Cheap fill. 1 brief. |
-| **UPGRADED: Quiet-luxury tone-on-tone** | PatternWeaver #3: sage-on-sage / cream-on-cream micro-geometrics that read as solids. Added a second texture brief (Sage Ogee Whisper) next to Linen Weave. |
-| **DOWNGRADED: Chartreuse Deco** | Weaker signal this pass; brief kept, priority lowered. |
-| **Re-confirmed unfilled** | Animal-skin prints (rose cheetah / verdant tiger named again), tactile texture-effect papers, saturated chinoiserie (branch-only — bird chinoiserie sells huge on Etsy but is settlement-blocked for us), ditsy micro-prints, saturated garden panorama, meadow toile. |
+| **CORRECTED: Equestrian timing → elevated to #1** | 2026 = Year of the Horse (live now, not 2027). Added a 3rd brief **Cognac Tack Room** — a subtle heritage-foulard of bits/stirrups/laurel in cognac, matching the press's "subtle horsey cues over cartoon ponies / Ralph-Lauren tack-room" framing. |
+| **NEW lane: Cottagecore checkerboard** | Checkerboard named an adaptable 2026 motif — "cream and sage checker reads cottagecore." Zero coverage. One cheap design (4 colorways) opens a geometric lane. Brief **Sage Cottage Check**. |
+| **REFRAMED: nursery circuscore → "Storybook Playful Whimsy"** | The actual named 2026 nursery trend is broader storybook/hand-drawn-woodland-animals (Woodland-Animals-Reading + Whimsical-Jungle are literal Etsy bestsellers), "joyful not overstimulating," sage/moss + peach-fuzz. Our designer-zoo character hand transfers directly. Brief retitled **Woodland Storybook**. |
+| **Palette directive updated** | "Grown-up cottagecore" warmed-and-muddied: sage (the new neutral) not mint, dusty-rose not bubblegum, ochre not yellow, + soft mushroom / aged linen. Whole-room drama: navy/forest/oxblood/aubergine/charcoal. Applied across colorways. |
+| **Re-confirmed unfilled** | Tactile texture, animal-skin prints ("Animal Kingdom" Patternbank theme), saturated branch chinoiserie, ditsy micro-prints, saturated garden panorama, meadow toile, neo-folk block-print, moody plaid, 70s geometric protagonist. |
+| **Held low** | Chartreuse Deco — weak again; brief kept, low priority. |
 
 ## Priority queue for the orchestrator
 
-1. **Horse lane** (BRIEF-2026-horse-01/02) — demand + deadline; Q4 2026 listing target.
-2. **Texture / quiet-luxury** (texture-01/02) — highest-volume gap, unfilled two scans running.
-3. **Animal-skin prints** (animalprint-01/02) — clearest whitespace, re-confirmed.
-4. **Circuscore nursery** (nursery-01) — lowest-risk: our proven hand, named trend.
-5. **Moody plaid** (plaid-01) — one cheap design fills a bestseller lane from zero.
+1. **Equestrian / Year of the Horse** (horse-01 Heritage Canter · horse-02 Muybridge Gallop · horse-03 Cognac Tack Room) — demand + it's live NOW; list ASAP.
+2. **Texture / quiet-luxury** (texture-01/02) — dominant theme, biggest gap, three scans running.
+3. **Animal-skin prints** (animalprint-01/02) — clearest whitespace vs our strength.
+4. **Storybook whimsy nursery** (nursery-01) — lowest-risk: proven hand, named trend, just needs nursery palette.
+5. **Cottagecore checkerboard** (check-01) — one cheap design, named motif, zero coverage.
 
-Full structured data (13 lanes, 15 briefs with prompts/colorways/tiers/settlement notes) in `data/trend-board.json`.
+Full structured data (13 lanes, 17 briefs with prompts/colorways/tiers/settlement notes) in `data/trend-board.json`.
 
 **Rails honored:** research read-only, $0 spend logged; no marketplace design copied — briefs evoke demand lanes in our own hand; every brief routes through the settlement gate before generation; **generation + listing remain Steve-gated** — this pass only briefs.

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