auto-data-snapshot: 2026-08-13T12:57:05 (2 data files) — skills/polymtrx/SKILL.md skills/polymtrx/SKILL.md.bak-agentreach

c08e0df8153f4e8a341fdfa80f3b9d81bab5f7e5 · 2026-08-13 12:57:34 -0700 · auto-commit-fleet
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commit c08e0df8153f4e8a341fdfa80f3b9d81bab5f7e5
Author: auto-commit-fleet <steve@designerwallcoverings.com>
Date:   Thu Aug 13 12:57:34 2026 -0700

    auto-data-snapshot: 2026-08-13T12:57:05 (2 data files) — skills/polymtrx/SKILL.md skills/polymtrx/SKILL.md.bak-agentreach
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@@ -117,3 +117,6 @@ the edge may already be priced in).
   → rank → emit). Runnable standalone; also readable/patchable for tuning.
 - `references/api.md` — the public Polymarket endpoints used, their shapes, and
   the field-coercion gotchas (JSON-encoded price arrays, string volumes).
+
+## Free social sentiment (agent-reach) <!-- agent-reach-wired -->
+Supplement the Polymarket edge signals with $0 Reddit/X/YouTube sentiment via the **`agent-reach`** skill (`twitter`, `opencli` for Reddit, `curl r.jina.ai` for any page) — no paid platform API. READ-ONLY, informational; never trades, never touches a wallet.
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+---
+name: polymtrx
+description: 'Scan LIVE Polymarket prediction markets and rank them by tradeable-edge signals — real-money volume, order-book liquidity/spread, time-to-resolution, price contest (near 50/50), longshot mispricing, and recent movement — then synthesize a grounded read of where the best opportunity is right now. Runs a zero-dependency, no-key, $0-local Python engine over Polymarket''s public Gamma + CLOB APIs. READ-ONLY: it surfaces opportunities, it never trades, never touches a wallet or key. This skill should be used when the user asks what is happening on Polymarket, wants prediction-market odds/opportunities on a topic, asks "where is the edge / best bet", wants to see trending or most-active markets, asks about a specific market''s price/liquidity/spread, or invokes /polymtrx or mentions MTRX / Polymtrx / PolyMatrix. Not for placing trades, wallet operations, or non-Polymarket markets.'
+argument-hint: 'polymtrx scan "fed rate cut" | polymtrx trending | polymtrx market <slug> | polymtrx scan bitcoin --no-clob'
+allowed-tools: Bash, Read, WebSearch, AskUserQuestion
+license: MIT
+user-invocable: true
+metadata:
+  type: reference
+  inspired-by: MTRX (@Polymtrx) on X — the "prediction markets + AI to find the best opportunities" idea
+  engine: scripts/polymtrx.py
+  tags:
+    - polymarket
+    - prediction-markets
+    - opportunity-scanner
+    - odds
+    - trading-signals
+    - engagement-ranked
+    - read-only
+    - no-key
+    - zero-cost
+---
+
+# /polymtrx
+
+## Overview
+
+`/polymtrx` answers **"where is the best opportunity on Polymarket right now?"**
+It reproduces the MTRX / @Polymtrx (PolyMatrix) workflow — *prediction markets +
+signal analysis to surface the best opportunities* — as a deterministic engine
+that pulls **live** Polymarket data, scores each market on tradeable-edge
+signals, and hands back the raw numbers for the agent to reason over.
+
+This is a **research + signal contract**, not a keyword to improvise against.
+Always run the engine (never answer Polymarket odds from memory — they move by
+the minute). Then synthesize.
+
+> **Provenance note.** The seed idea is the tweet at
+> `x.com/polymtrx/status/2076318987441357033`. X paywalls automated reads, so
+> the exact technique in that specific post could not be captured verbatim; this
+> skill implements the confirmed workflow category (Polymarket opportunity
+> intelligence). If the source describes a sharper, more specific method,
+> tighten `scripts/polymtrx.py`'s scoring to match — the scaffold is built to be
+> refined, not frozen.
+
+## HARD RAIL — read-only
+
+The engine **only fetches public market data**. It never places an order, never
+touches a wallet / private key / CLOB credential, and never signs anything.
+Surfacing an opportunity is the whole job; deciding and acting is a human's (or a
+separately-gated step's). Do not extend this skill to auto-trade.
+
+## Cost
+
+**$0 (local).** Every call hits Polymarket's free public endpoints (Gamma +
+CLOB). No API keys. State `$0 (local)` when reporting results, per Steve's
+always-show-costs rule.
+
+## Workflow
+
+### Step 1 — pick the command
+| Intent | Command |
+| --- | --- |
+| Opportunities on a **topic** ("fed", "election", "bitcoin", a team) | `scan "<topic>"` |
+| **Most active** markets right now, no topic | `trending` |
+| Deep detail on **one** market (price, liquidity, spread, timing) | `market <slug-or-id>` |
+| Are the endpoints healthy? | `doctor` |
+
+### Step 2 — run the engine
+```bash
+python3 scripts/polymtrx.py scan "fed rate cut" --limit 12
+python3 scripts/polymtrx.py trending --emit markdown
+python3 scripts/polymtrx.py market fed-decision-in-july-181
+python3 scripts/polymtrx.py scan "election" --no-clob   # faster, skips order-book depth
+```
+- `--emit markdown` for a human-readable brief; default `json` for machine consumption / chaining.
+- `--no-clob` skips the per-market order-book round-trip (faster; loses live spread/depth refinement).
+- `--limit N` caps how many ranked markets come back (default 12).
+
+The `market` command resolves a **market slug**, a **numeric id**, or falls back
+to an **event slug** (returns all of that event's markets). Slugs come from any
+Polymarket URL: `polymarket.com/event/<event-slug>`.
+
+### Step 3 — read the opportunity score
+Each market gets an `opportunity` score 0–100, blended from six signals (each
+0–1), and a `signals` breakdown so the reasoning is transparent:
+
+| Signal | Weight | Means |
+| --- | --- | --- |
+| `volume` | 0.30 | real money traded — conviction / it matters |
+| `timing` | 0.20 | near resolution — the edge window is concrete (0–45d) |
+| `contest` | 0.20 | price near 50/50 on a live binary — genuinely undecided |
+| `liquidity` | 0.15 | order-book depth + tight spread — you can actually get filled |
+| `movement` | 0.10 | |24h price change| — momentum / news just hit |
+| `longshot` | 0.05 | price hugging 0/1 — potential mispriced tail |
+
+Tune weights/thresholds in `scripts/polymtrx.py` (`WEIGHTS` + `score_market`) if
+the ranking needs to bias differently (e.g. weight `movement` higher for a
+news-reaction lens).
+
+### Step 4 — synthesize
+Do not just dump the JSON. Read the top markets and write a short grounded brief:
+which markets carry real money, what the current odds imply, where the price
+looks contestable vs. where it's a longshot, and **always cite the market URL**.
+Flag when a top-scorer resolves in `0d` (score is inflated by imminent timing —
+the edge may already be priced in).
+
+## When to use / not use
+- **Use** for: "what's Polymarket saying about X", "prediction-market odds on Y",
+  "where's the edge", "trending markets", a specific market's price/liquidity,
+  `/polymtrx`, or any mention of MTRX / Polymtrx / PolyMatrix.
+- **Do not use** for: placing trades, wallet/key operations, non-Polymarket
+  markets (Kalshi → the `Ken` project), or evergreen facts.
+
+## Resources
+- `scripts/polymtrx.py` — the zero-dependency engine (fetch → normalize → score
+  → rank → emit). Runnable standalone; also readable/patchable for tuning.
+- `references/api.md` — the public Polymarket endpoints used, their shapes, and
+  the field-coercion gotchas (JSON-encoded price arrays, string volumes).
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