`docs/FORSALE-SCENARIOS.md`

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# RENTV For-Sale — Scenarios, Buyer Shortlist & Outreach Drafts

**Status:** DRAFT for Steve's review. Nothing has been sent. No buyer or advertiser has been contacted.
**Decision of record:** DTD verdict 2026-07-30 — **time-boxed LATER** (hold sublease.com, build demonstrated demand + run a competitive process, hard fallback to a bare-name floor sale by **2026-10-28** if no traction). Vote 6/8. The strongest dissent (respect it): *there is no named buyer yet, and a half-built marketplace can be worth **less** than the bare name.*

Admin surface: **`/forsale`** on rentv.com (admin-gated) — the live board for the assets + prospect pipeline below.

---

## 1 · The sublease.com domain (~$200k)

### Valuation logic
- A one-word `.com` in an active CRE category is a **non-perishable, blue-chip asset** — negligible downside to holding (~$10–40/yr renewal).
- A **bare** category domain typically sells on comps/brandability (low-hundreds-of-K).
- A domain that **demonstrably routes real demand** (traffic + leads + a captive advertiser list) reprices from "domain" to "domain + working funnel," which both **widens the buyer pool** (operators/financial buyers, not just 3–4 strategics) and enables a **competitive process** — the mechanism that produces a multiple over a single quote.
- ⚠️ The half-built trap: a *lightly* monetized micro-marketplace can be valued at 3–5× near-zero revenue, i.e. **below** the bare-name strategic premium. So either demonstrate *real* demand or sell the bare name at the floor — never sell the in-between.

### Buyer shortlist (target accounts — NOT yet contacted)
| Buyer | Why they'd buy sublease.com |
|---|---|
| **CoStar Group** | Owns LoopNet; category-defining; buys category domains defensively. Highest strategic value. |
| **Yardi** (CommercialEdge / CommercialCafe) | Direct LoopNet competitor building a listings brand; clean vertical front door. |
| **Crexi** | Growth marketplace that spends on category SEO; one-word vertical domain is on-brand. |
| **CBRE / JLL / Cushman & Wakefield / Colliers** | Each runs a large sublease/tenant-rep practice; defensive + marketing value. |
| **IWG / Regus** (flex space) | Flex operators are the natural home for short-term sublease demand. |

### The three scenarios
- **A — Sell NOW (bare name).** Go find/negotiate one strategic buyer, target ~$200k. Fast, certain-ish, but forecloses the auction and hands leverage to whoever you approach first. This is the **fallback**, not the plan.
- **B — Build then sell (the verdict).** Route real sublease deal-flow through `/desk`, prove demand, then sell as a monetized asset **or** run a competitive process among the buyers above. Upside: a multiple. Risk: execution slip.
- **C — Competitive process now.** Even without heavy monetization, quietly float the name to all buyers above **as a sealed process with a floor** — let them bid against each other. Cheaper than B, captures much of the auction upside. **Recommended first move**, run in parallel with a light B.

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## 2 · RENTV → known advertisers (ad/sponsorship sale)

RENTV's real sellable inventory (rate cards TBD — set before outreach):
- **Homepage takeover / masthead** — highest-visibility; brokerage or CRE lender.
- **Newsletter sponsorship** — sole-sponsor slot to the opted-in subscriber list.
- **Sublease Desk presenting sponsor** — "presented by —" on `/desk` + `/deals`. **Strategic tie-in:** a sponsor who values this audience is a *warm sublease.com buyer.* Sponsorship is the on-ramp to the domain sale.

Advertiser targets: **Marcus & Millichap, Kidder Mathews** (Western-US bullseye), plus the brokerages above (they buy ads *and* could buy the domain — double-duty prospects).

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## 3 · Timeline (90-day time-box → 2026-10-28)

1. **Weeks 1–2:** Set rate cards. Open a quiet competitive process on sublease.com (Scenario C) — soft feelers to the shortlist, floor at/above $200k. Track every touch in `/forsale`.
2. **Weeks 2–6:** Stand up the light monetization (route real sublease deal-flow through `/desk`, land 1–2 Sublease-Desk sponsors). Any traction is pure upside to the domain price.
3. **Weeks 6–12:** Convert the strongest domain interest to offers; if a bidding dynamic forms, run it. 
4. **Day 90 gate:** If no demonstrated traction AND no bidding interest → revert to Scenario A, sell the bare name at the floor. No open-ended holding.

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## 4 · Outreach drafts (DRAFT — not sent; for Steve's approval)

### 4a · Domain — competitive-process feeler (to a strategic buyer)
> **Subject:** sublease.com — quiet process, [Company] on the shortlist
>
> Hi [Name],
> We own **sublease.com** and are running a short, invitation-only process for it before it goes to open market. Given [Company]'s position in [commercial sublease / CRE listings], we wanted you on the shortlist.
> It's the exact-match category name — direct type-in, brandable, and (via our RENTV commercial-real-estate audience) already adjacent to real sublease deal-flow. Happy to share traffic/interest context under NDA.
> If it's a fit, reply with a range and we'll fold you into the process. We expect to close within [X] weeks.
> Best, [Steve] · RENTV

### 4b · Sublease Desk sponsorship (to an advertiser)
> **Subject:** Present the RENTV Sublease Desk — [Company]
>
> Hi [Name],
> RENTV has covered Western-US commercial real estate since 1998. We're opening a **presenting sponsorship** of our new Sublease Desk — the deal-flow surface our broker audience uses daily.
> One brand, top placement on `/desk` + `/deals` + the newsletter. It puts [Company] in front of the exact tenant-rep / sublease audience you want, and it's a natural home given your [sublease practice / Western-US footprint].
> Rate card attached. Open to a short call this week?
> Best, [Steve] · RENTV

*(Both are starting points — tune tone/specifics before any send. Sending is Steve-gated.)*

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## 5 · What's built vs. what's gated
- **Built (local, reversible):** the `/forsale` admin board + `/api/forsale` + `/api/admin/forsale/*`, seeded with the assets + target prospects above; this doc. Smoke-tested on a scratch port.
- **Gated (Steve-only):** any outreach/send, listing sublease.com, accepting an offer, the prod deploy of `/forsale` to rentv.com, and setting real rate-card numbers.