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analytics/comprehensive_report.json
611 lines
{
"generated_at": "2025-11-17T09:09:59.814905",
"executive_summary": {
"report_generated": "2025-11-17T09:09:59.814931",
"report_type": "Omega Watch Investment Analysis - Executive Summary",
"market_overview": {
"total_watches_analyzed": 32,
"collections": 9,
"average_cagr": 5.87,
"median_price": 8500.0
},
"prediction_highlights": {
"model_performance": "linear",
"model_r2_score": 0.7546,
"anomalies_detected": 5,
"watches_with_predictions": 30
},
"statistical_summary": {
"cagr": {
"mean": 5.87,
"median": 4.22,
"std": 3.67,
"min": 2.2,
"max": 15.92,
"percentiles": {
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"75th": 6.82,
"90th": 11.92
}
},
"current_prices": {
"mean": 26925.0,
"median": 8500.0,
"std": 53162.65,
"min": 1600,
"max": 250000
},
"total_appreciation": {
"mean": 11578.14,
"median": 591.59,
"std": 38057.45
}
}
},
"top_recommendations": [
{
"watch_id": "speedmaster-moonwatch-1969",
"model": "Speedmaster Professional Moonwatch ST 105.012",
"series": "Speedmaster",
"current_price": 7200,
"cagr": 7.160127943678907,
"opportunity_score": 100,
"recommendation_type": "High Growth Opportunity",
"key_reasons": [
"Top 25% growth rate (7.2% CAGR)",
"Below median price ($7,200)",
"Manual movement (high collector appeal)"
],
"5_year_forecast": 21713.76
},
{
"watch_id": "speedmaster-moonwatch-1957",
"model": "Speedmaster Professional CK2915",
"series": "Speedmaster",
"current_price": 200000,
"cagr": 12.098961155538612,
"opportunity_score": 80,
"recommendation_type": "High Growth Opportunity",
"key_reasons": [
"Top 25% growth rate (12.1% CAGR)",
"Manual movement (high collector appeal)",
"Chronograph complication"
],
"5_year_forecast": 314004.34
},
{
"watch_id": "speedmaster-ultraman-1968",
"model": "Speedmaster Professional 'Ultraman'",
"series": "Speedmaster",
"current_price": 45000,
"cagr": 10.308218618302135,
"opportunity_score": 80,
"recommendation_type": "High Growth Opportunity",
"key_reasons": [
"Top 25% growth rate (10.3% CAGR)",
"Manual movement (high collector appeal)",
"Chronograph complication"
],
"5_year_forecast": 83920.5
},
{
"watch_id": "speedmaster-mark-v-1985",
"model": "Speedmaster Mark V",
"series": "Speedmaster",
"current_price": 5500,
"cagr": 4.3502508495462555,
"opportunity_score": 80,
"recommendation_type": "High Growth Opportunity",
"key_reasons": [
"Below median price ($5,500)",
"Value play: Low entry price with above-average growth",
"Chronograph complication"
],
"5_year_forecast": 7242.79
},
{
"watch_id": "speedmaster-alaska-project-1978",
"model": "Speedmaster Alaska Project III",
"series": "Speedmaster",
"current_price": 250000,
"cagr": 15.356134539570299,
"opportunity_score": 80,
"recommendation_type": "High Growth Opportunity",
"key_reasons": [
"Top 25% growth rate (15.4% CAGR)",
"Manual movement (high collector appeal)",
"Chronograph complication"
],
"5_year_forecast": 936928.85
}
],
"risk_analysis": {
"best_risk_adjusted": [
{
"model": "De Ville Tr\u00e9sor",
"sharpe_ratio": 21.4751,
"mean_return": 11.46,
"volatility": 0.53
},
{
"model": "Louis Brandt II Chronograph",
"sharpe_ratio": 8.5662,
"mean_return": 29.59,
"volatility": 3.45
},
{
"model": "Speedmaster Reduced",
"sharpe_ratio": 8.538,
"mean_return": 23.25,
"volatility": 2.72
},
{
"model": "Seamaster Diver 300M",
"sharpe_ratio": 8.1506,
"mean_return": 20.3,
"volatility": 2.49
},
{
"model": "Seamaster 300 Master Co-Axial",
"sharpe_ratio": 7.9643,
"mean_return": 9.15,
"volatility": 1.15
}
],
"highest_risk": [
{
"model": "Speedmaster Alaska Project III",
"volatility": 468.33,
"max_drawdown": 0.0
},
{
"model": "Speedmaster Professional CK2915",
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"max_drawdown": -3.64
},
{
"model": "Speedmaster Professional Moonwatch ST 105.012",
"volatility": 116.21,
"max_drawdown": -78.33
},
{
"model": "Speedmaster Professional 'Ultraman'",
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"max_drawdown": 0.0
},
{
"model": "Railmaster",
"volatility": 49.61,
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}
],
"most_stable": [
{
"model": "De Ville Tr\u00e9sor",
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},
{
"model": "Louis Brandt II Chronograph",
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},
{
"model": "Speedmaster Reduced",
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"volatility": 2.72
},
{
"model": "Seamaster Diver 300M",
"max_drawdown": 0.0,
"volatility": 2.49
},
{
"model": "Seamaster 300 Master Co-Axial",
"max_drawdown": 0.0,
"volatility": 1.15
}
]
},
"collection_comparison": {
"top_performing_collections": [
{
"series": "Railmaster",
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"avg_current_price": 15000.0,
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},
"avg_cagr": 7.85,
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"avg_total_appreciation": 15689.47,
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"avg_year_introduced": 1957.0,
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{
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"avg_cagr": 7.62,
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}
},
{
"series": "Flightmaster",
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{
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}
},
{
"series": "Specialty",
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"avg_current_price": 22500.0,
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"top_performer": {
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{
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"volatility": NaN,
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],
"most_volatile_collections": [
{
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{
"series": "Speedmaster",
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"top_performer": {
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}
},
{
"series": "Flightmaster",
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"avg_cagr": 6.62,
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"avg_year_introduced": 1969.0,
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}
],
"collection_count": 9
},
"decade_insights": {
"best_performing_decade": {
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"watch_count": 3,
"avg_cagr": 8.61,
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"avg_current_price": 90166.67,
"total_appreciation_avg": 24870.59,
"best_performing_watch": {
"model": "Speedmaster Alaska Project III",
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}
},
"worst_performing_decade": {
"decade": "2020s",
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"total_appreciation_avg": 9.51,
"best_performing_watch": {
"model": "Speedmaster Moonwatch Calibre 321 Steel",
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},
"all_decades": [
{
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"avg_current_price": 8500.0,
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"model": "Cosmic Moonphase",
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},
{
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"best_performing_watch": {
"model": "Speedmaster Professional CK2915",
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}
},
{
"decade": "1960s",
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"avg_current_price": 10800.0,
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"best_performing_watch": {
"model": "Speedmaster Professional 'Ultraman'",
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}
},
{
"decade": "1970s",
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"best_performing_watch": {
"model": "Speedmaster Alaska Project III",
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},
{
"decade": "1980s",
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"avg_cagr": 3.85,
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"avg_current_price": 10375.0,
"total_appreciation_avg": 360.75,
"best_performing_watch": {
"model": "Speedmaster Mark V",
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},
{
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},
{
"decade": "2000s",
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"model": "Speedmaster Professional Snoopy Award",
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},
{
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}
},
{
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"best_performing_watch": {
"model": "Speedmaster Moonwatch Calibre 321 Steel",
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}
}
]
},
"value_opportunities": [
{
"watch_id": "speedmaster-moonwatch-1969",
"model": "Speedmaster Professional Moonwatch ST 105.012",
"series": "Speedmaster",
"current_price": 7200,
"cagr": 7.160127943678907,
"value_score": 65.83444592640706,
"investment_thesis": "High growth (7.2% CAGR) at below-median price ($7,200)"
},
{
"watch_id": "seamaster-bullhead-1969",
"model": "Seamaster Bullhead",
"series": "Seamaster",
"current_price": 8000,
"cagr": 6.708328630339611,
"value_score": 64.00361912848894,
"investment_thesis": "High growth (6.7% CAGR) at below-median price ($8,000)"
},
{
"watch_id": "constellation-pie-pan-1952",
"model": "Constellation 'Pie Pan'",
"series": "Constellation",
"current_price": 6500,
"cagr": 5.374042230114373,
"value_score": 59.214707903263296,
"investment_thesis": "High growth (5.4% CAGR) at below-median price ($6,500)"
},
{
"watch_id": "de-ville-1967",
"model": "De Ville",
"series": "De Ville",
"current_price": 3500,
"cagr": 5.149614560974247,
"value_score": 58.84884240961854,
"investment_thesis": "High growth (5.1% CAGR) at below-median price ($3,500)"
},
{
"watch_id": "speedmaster-mark-v-1985",
"model": "Speedmaster Mark V",
"series": "Speedmaster",
"current_price": 5500,
"cagr": 4.3502508495462555,
"value_score": 55.51604909870742,
"investment_thesis": "High growth (4.4% CAGR) at below-median price ($5,500)"
}
],
"statistical_highlights": {
"market_summary": {
"cagr": {
"mean": 5.87,
"median": 4.22,
"std": 3.67,
"min": 2.2,
"max": 15.92,
"percentiles": {
"25th": 3.61,
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"90th": 11.92
}
},
"current_prices": {
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"median": 8500.0,
"std": 53162.65,
"min": 1600,
"max": 250000
},
"total_appreciation": {
"mean": 11578.14,
"median": 591.59,
"std": 38057.45
}
},
"significant_tests": []
}
}