TK-10896: record ledger-verified headline result in evidence

a4e4aba7813d56d8dc46f803ec1a5898899052d3 · 2026-08-30 23:28:49 -0700 · codex-10896

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M evidence/ANALYSIS-2026-08-30.md

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commit a4e4aba7813d56d8dc46f803ec1a5898899052d3
Author: codex-10896 <steve@designerwallcoverings.com>
Date:   Sun Aug 30 23:28:49 2026 -0700

    TK-10896: record ledger-verified headline result in evidence
---
 evidence/ANALYSIS-2026-08-30.md | 36 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
 1 file changed, 36 insertions(+)

diff --git a/evidence/ANALYSIS-2026-08-30.md b/evidence/ANALYSIS-2026-08-30.md
index 14103ac..6f03c25 100644
--- a/evidence/ANALYSIS-2026-08-30.md
+++ b/evidence/ANALYSIS-2026-08-30.md
@@ -5,6 +5,42 @@
 Kamatera owns `shopify_products` (split-ownership doctrine). Re-run the scanner on
 Kamatera for the authoritative number.
 
+## ⭐ LEDGER-VERIFIED RESULT (supersedes the prefix-guard estimates below)
+
+The reverted-Phase-4 undo ledger (11,725 rows, SHA-256-verified) was joined against
+the mirror plan. Its prefix composition **exactly matches** the Phase-4 decision-aid
+buckets (DWAG 5921 · DWPR 2899 · DWAX 1429 · DWKN 505 · DWHD 284 · DWTT 64 · DWRW 51 ·
+DWCC 25 · DWJS 12 · DWRO 11) — near-conclusive that it is the genuine mint record.
+
+**Decisive finding:** the ledger's Carnegie mints are `DWAG-100001..105921`, but the
+current Carnegie blank `sku` values are `DWAG-376000..381921` — a *different range,
+absent from the ledger*. So the `DWAG-376xxx` codes are **scraper-native** (self-copy
+safe), NOT the reverted mints. The prefix-based greenfield guard was a safe-but-wrong
+heuristic that over-blocked ~8k rows. With the verified ledger, **membership of the
+exact code** is the sole provenance test.
+
+**Ledger-authoritative segmentation (34,614 blank rows):**
+
+| Path | Rows |
+|---|---:|
+| self-copy recoverable (DW 18,236 + proven-native 12,475 + source 3,026 + cork 25) | **33,762** |
+| confirmed mint-residue → rescrape (in ledger) | **772** |
+| bare → rescrape (no sku/mfr) | 65 |
+| dedup (collisions → TK-10649) | 9 |
+| staging-link | 6 |
+
+True re-scrape need = **~837 rows**, not 8,962 (prefix guard) or 12,589 (memo). The 772
+residue reconciles exactly with an independent raw-SQL count (`code IN ledger`), and the
+join closes a 268-row gap (DWPR/DWHD residue the prefix buckets missed).
+
+**Chain-of-custody caveat (Steve to confirm):** the ledger FILE (`/tmp/TK-10896-phase4-
+ledger.jsonl`) is integrity-verified (SHA-256 + row-count + no-dups) and internally
+conclusive, but I could not tie it to the canonical Kamatera `sku_repair_p4_20260826`
+table from here (prod read blocked). Before any gated apply, confirm it is the authorized
+export. It is NOT committed to this repo (unconfirmed provenance); the join is reproducible.
+
+---
+
 ## Method
 
 `dwsku-backlog-scan.mjs` runs the deterministic classifier (`classify.mjs`) over

← 704931f TK-10896: make verified ledger authoritative for ALL DW-code · back to Dw Sku Integrity · TK-10896: per-vendor recovery cohorts (ledger-verified) — ac 3fd09ab →