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Stage anchored Watchtower daemon count with negative boundary proof

89428d3248688c9072b9f0647b2d13b1ae6fc68b · 2026-09-16 15:24:14 -0700 · Steve Abrams

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commit 89428d3248688c9072b9f0647b2d13b1ae6fc68b
Author: Steve Abrams <steve@designerwallcoverings.com>
Date:   Wed Sep 16 15:24:14 2026 -0700

    Stage anchored Watchtower daemon count with negative boundary proof
---
 .../TK-11848-daemon-detector-yf2139.md             |  33 +++
 .../yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/cody-report-fix.json |  25 ++
 .../yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/increment3-dtd.json  |  19 ++
 .../watch-parent-proof.json                        |  11 +
 .../watchtower/review.uegK64/daemon-detector.patch |  13 +
 .../watchtower/review.uegK64/handoff.json          |  28 ++
 .../watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/.gitignore       |  27 ++
 .../watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/dedup.py         | 294 +++++++++++++++++++++
 .../watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/known-held.txt   |  20 ++
 .../review.uegK64/repo/test_daemon_count.py        |  52 ++++
 .../review.uegK64/repo/triage-prompt.txt           |  14 +
 .../review.uegK64/repo/verification/e2e-proof.json | 138 ++++++++++
 .../repo/verification/parser-results.json          |  83 ++++++
 .../watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/watch.sh         |  88 ++++++
 .../watchtower/review.uegK64/source-before.sha256  |   1 +
 .../review.uegK64/tests/decoy_only.fixture.txt     |   1 +
 .../review.uegK64/tests/live-process-summary.json  |   8 +
 .../tests/non_numeric_version.fixture.txt          |   1 +
 .../tests/old_decoy_false_positive.fixture.txt     |   2 +
 .../watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/one.fixture.txt |   1 +
 .../review.uegK64/tests/one_plus_decoy.fixture.txt |   2 +
 .../watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/results.json    |  83 ++++++
 .../watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/two.fixture.txt |   2 +
 .../review.uegK64/tests/two_plus_decoy.fixture.txt |   3 +
 .../review.uegK64/tests/zero.fixture.txt           |   1 +
 .../watchtower/review.uegK64/watch.before.sh       |  88 ++++++
 26 files changed, 1038 insertions(+)

diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/TK-11848-daemon-detector-yf2139.md b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/TK-11848-daemon-detector-yf2139.md
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..b5f3f81a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/TK-11848-daemon-detector-yf2139.md
@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+# TK-11848 — approve the prepared PM2 detector correction
+
+Correlation yf2139-i3-execute. Recommendation: APPROVE scoped one-line activation after the preflight below, with real second-daemon proof separately gated; REVISE if the installed source or shell options drift; BLOCK leaves the installed watcher unchanged. Preparation passed; source outcome UNVERIFIED and operational completion partial. Finalizer: root/codex-yoloforever.
+
+## Prepared change
+
+Isolated commit dfa2963a10f92bd675c40d39ef5071898ece883e in /Users/macstudio3/Projects/ticket-system/data/codex-yoloforever/verification/yf2139-watchtower/review.uegK64/repo. Only watch.sh line 27 changes at runtime:
+
+```bash
+GOD=$(ps -axo command= | grep -cE '^PM2 v[0-9.]+: God Daemon')
+```
+
+The previous whole-argv search counted a peer command mentioning PM2 and God. The new detector anchors the command field to the real daemon title. The alert threshold remains GOD > 1. No launchd plist change is proposed.
+
+## Evidence and limitations
+
+Nine checks passed: old parser counts a daemon plus decoy as two and raises pm2-god:2; new parser rejects the decoy; zero/one/two fixtures and mixed decoys exercise the literal assignment and existing alert threshold; a nonnumeric version is ignored; the real current read-only probe finds one daemon. Zero matches produce grep/assignment status 1, GOD=0, and continuation under the installed script's no-errexit Bash semantics. Shell syntax and whitespace checks pass. Retained process evidence contains only the anchored daemon title prefix/count, never unrelated full argv.
+
+Real second-daemon operational proof is SKIP. No daemon was started or stopped, and fixture replays do not prove a real second daemon's lifecycle or full watcher escalation. Installed activation and scheduled escalation journey are SKIP; whole watch.sh was never invoked because it can run Claude, send/escalate, and write state. Steve's current Claude-runtime prohibition still applies; this memo does not authorize invoking the whole watcher even after a code-only approval. No paid calls occurred ($0).
+
+## Exact activation preflight — after Steve approves
+
+1. Confirm scope is only the watch.sh patch; explicitly resolve any expectation of a Claude-capable full-flow test before running such a test. Keep daemon lifecycle and any state/schedule changes separately gated.
+2. Recheck installed repo is clean and HEAD equals 5659b951a5da820786da84bfd2079187e5f899a8, and watch.sh SHA-256 equals 3d92f55e893a089d5a9333014d113e2b72eb61b8fdf00eff91d3b91b63bf4ae0. If any differs, STOP and rebase/review; do not overwrite another agent's work.
+3. Recheck installed script still uses /bin/bash without errexit and record a fresh read-only daemon count; run the isolated test runner with an explicitly retained evidence directory, bash -n candidate watch.sh, and review the one-line diff.
+4. Run git -C /Users/macstudio3/.claude/skills/yoloforever-watchtower apply --check /Users/macstudio3/Projects/ticket-system/data/codex-yoloforever/verification/yf2139-watchtower/review.uegK64/daemon-detector.patch. Only after approval and a successful check, apply that same one-line patch. Record the resulting hash, expected 65a0ea8b3829d8f20e8fc5dcdee50912f1d02141d3d7958d9ef0d4671037f9fd, and a local commit. No automatic scheduler reload, daemon action, or whole-watch execution is included.
+5. Require independent review and approved real second-daemon operational proof before closing TK-11848. A read-only count or fixture success alone cannot close it.
+
+## Rollback after a later approved activation
+
+Retained original: /Users/macstudio3/Projects/ticket-system/data/codex-yoloforever/verification/yf2139-watchtower/review.uegK64/watch.before.sh. First verify the active source still matches the approved candidate and has no concurrent edit; then git -C /Users/macstudio3/.claude/skills/yoloforever-watchtower apply -R --check /Users/macstudio3/Projects/ticket-system/data/codex-yoloforever/verification/yf2139-watchtower/review.uegK64/daemon-detector.patch followed by an approved reverse apply restores the original single line. Record a local rollback commit; do not reset, delete, kill, restart, or overwrite unrelated files. The isolated clone rehearsed reverse-apply validation only; installed files were never patched.
+
+Evidence: /Users/macstudio3/Projects/ticket-system/data/codex-yoloforever/verification/yf2139-watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/verification/e2e-proof.json, /Users/macstudio3/Projects/ticket-system/data/codex-yoloforever/verification/yf2139-watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/results.json, /Users/macstudio3/Projects/ticket-system/data/codex-yoloforever/verification/yf2139-watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/live-process-summary.json. All temporary artifacts retained. Source clean/hash preservation is checked again at handoff. Guard independently verified: ZERO_COST_REQUIRED and DTD_ZERO_COST=1.
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/cody-report-fix.json b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/cody-report-fix.json
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..0832ed1b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/cody-report-fix.json
@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+{
+  "claim": "stale position8 inprogress text",
+  "reproduced": true,
+  "before": {
+    "position": 8,
+    "id": "TK-11848-yoloforever-watchtower-watch-sh-pm2-god",
+    "disposition": "execute-local",
+    "reason": "Slot6 isolated detector candidate and tests in progress; installed watcher unchanged, activation and real2daemon proof held.",
+    "evidence": [
+      "increment3-dtd.json",
+      "watchtower-baseline.json"
+    ]
+  },
+  "after": {
+    "position": 8,
+    "id": "TK-11848-yoloforever-watchtower-watch-sh-pm2-god",
+    "disposition": "execute-local",
+    "reason": "Completed isolated committed one-line detector candidate;9parent-replayed checks PASS, installedsource unchanged. Operational activation and real2daemon proof remain gated/SKIP; sourceblocked, no closure.",
+    "evidence": [
+      "watch-parent-proof.json",
+      "watchtower/review.uegK64/handoff.json"
+    ]
+  },
+  "scope": "report correction only"
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/increment3-dtd.json b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/increment3-dtd.json
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..cebae2cc
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/increment3-dtd.json
@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+{
+  "verdict": "A",
+  "valid_votes_seen": 5,
+  "votes": {
+    "exo.txt": "[exo unavailable: no good+safe model loaded on cluster]\n",
+    "kimi.txt": "[kimi disabled: DTD_ZERO_COST=1 \u2014 paid lens intentionally skipped, not a failure]\n",
+    "heretic.txt": "[ERR heretic]\n",
+    "grok.txt": "[grok disabled: DTD_ZERO_COST=1 \u2014 paid lens intentionally skipped, not a failure]\n",
+    "qwen.txt": "VERDICT: A  \nThe correct action is to prepare the isolated detector fix as specified, replacing `argv grep` with `ps -axo command=` to ensure accurate detection of the PM2 daemon process (`^PM2 v[0-9.]+: God Daemon`). This avoids invoking `watch.sh` (which risks unauthorized Claude interactions or state alterations) and adheres to the prohibition against modifying scheduled scripts or starting/stoping PM2. Testing with decoy text and command fixtures at the parser-to-alert threshold ensures robustness without compromising the $0 guard/env or source integrity. The proposed fix from vp-operations aligns with the ticket\u2019s requirement to avoid real second-daemon operational proof pending approval, while maintaining HEAD5659b95\u2019s clean state and avoiding scheduled writer collisions.\n",
+    "codex.txt": "VERDICT: A\n\nPrepare an isolated, committed one-line detector fix from clean HEAD `5659b95` for TK-11848, cycle `yf2139.YF57g8`, using `ps -axo command=` and anchored `^PM2 v[0-9.]+: God Daemon`. Independently verify live single-daemon detection, decoy rejection, and zero/one/two-daemon fixtures through the parser-to-alert threshold; include replay/negative tests and an activation memo. Preserve the $0 guard/env. Do not invoke `watch.sh`, Claude, paid endpoints, daemon lifecycle operations, sends, or installed-script changes. Explicitly **SKIP real second-daemon operational proof pending approval**; keep the source ticket open and live scheduled activation gated.",
+    "muse.txt": "[disabled \u2014 muse-glimmer removed 2026-08-31 per TK-10980; voter slot retired]\n",
+    "root": "VERDICT: A\nIsolate and prove parser boundary now; operational activation and real second-daemon proof stay gated.\n",
+    "ops": "VERDICT: A\n\nPrepare and commit the isolated detector fix because process-command anchoring directly addresses the documented false alarm while leaving the active scheduled watcher untouched. Read the original script to preserve its actual shell/error semantics, and make the zero-daemon fixture verify both the resulting count and whether grep -c returning status 1 can prematurely terminate the caller; one/two-daemon fixtures must drive the real parser-to-alert threshold rather than a separately invented interpretation. Use read-only live process output to confirm the current genuine daemon spelling and prove decoy command arguments do not count. Keep activation and a real second-daemon lifecycle test explicitly unperformed and gated: fixture success validates the bounded patch, not the complete operational repair, so the source ticket remains open until authorized real-path proof is accepted.\n\nDirect guard evidence: /Users/macstudio3/Projects/ticket-system/config/dtd-cost-mode = ZERO_COST_REQUIRED; printenv DTD_ZERO_COST = 1. Canonical TK-11848 reread; installed watch.sh not invoked, no daemon/source action or delegation. Provider spend $0. Correlation yf2139-i3-ops.\n",
+    "risk": "VERDICT: A\nPrepare the isolated committed detector fix and activation memo because the canonical evidence identifies an argv-text false positive and the anchored command-column match directly addresses it without executing the installed watcher. The replay must exercise the actual parser-to-alert threshold with zero, one, and two daemon fixtures plus embedded decoy text, and verify the zero-match exit behavior: grep -cE prints 0 but returns status 1, which can abort scripts under errexit instead of producing the intended alert. Inspect the actual shell options and threshold logic, report any necessary deviation from the proposed one-line scope, and validate the local live single-daemon measurement independently. Fixture success cannot establish the real second-daemon operational path; label that critical check skipped and retain the source ticket open pending authorized lifecycle testing and scheduled activation. B risks Claude execution, sends, and runtime mutation; C leaves a concrete, authorized correction unprepared.\n\nGuard evidence: freshly read /Users/macstudio3/Projects/ticket-system/config/dtd-cost-mode as ZERO_COST_REQUIRED and printenv DTD_ZERO_COST as 1. Read increment3-question.txt and canonical TK-11848 with tk show. Full a2a-contract and dtd skills were read earlier in the same delegated session. No other votes read; no watch.sh execution. Provider spend $0, no Claude runtime or paid API.\nCorrelation: yf2139-i3-risk\nStatus: complete (independent risk vote only). Changed path: this artifact only; no source edit or commit. Gates retained: installed script activation, daemon lifecycle, sends, and actual second-daemon proof. Safest next action: parent independently review the vote and prepare the isolated patch and bounded evidence, with source completion explicitly withheld.\n"
+  },
+  "cost_usd": 0,
+  "dissent": "none among received votes",
+  "rejected_details": []
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watch-parent-proof.json b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watch-parent-proof.json
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..657c61f3
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watch-parent-proof.json
@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+{
+  "independent_checks": "9PASS",
+  "exact_one_line_change": "PASS",
+  "installed_source_unchanged": "PASS",
+  "bash_syntax": "PASS",
+  "isolated_commit": "dfa2963a10f92bd675c40d39ef5071898ece883e",
+  "actual_second_daemon": "SKIP gate",
+  "full_watch_run": "SKIP forbiddenruntime",
+  "source_outcome": "UNVERIFIED",
+  "test_evidence": "/private/tmp/yf-watch-parent.8vDoVL"
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/daemon-detector.patch b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/daemon-detector.patch
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..9b061821
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/daemon-detector.patch
@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+diff --git a/watch.sh b/watch.sh
+index 38a5942..8f81543 100755
+--- a/watch.sh
++++ b/watch.sh
+@@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ TS="$(date -u +%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ)"
+ log_ledger () { printf '%s\n' "$1" >> "$LEDGER"; }
+ 
+ # --- 1. pm2 God daemon count (fracture guard) ---
+-GOD=$(ps aux | grep -E 'PM2.*God' | grep -v grep | wc -l | tr -d ' ')
++GOD=$(ps -axo command= | grep -cE '^PM2 v[0-9.]+: God Daemon')
+ 
+ # --- 2. fleet-health-rollup: current FAIL skill set ---
+ ROLL="$(node "$ROLLUP" 2>/dev/null)"
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/handoff.json b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/handoff.json
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..92309646
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/handoff.json
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+{
+  "schema_version": 1,
+  "task_id": "yf2139-i3-execute",
+  "ticket": "TK-11848",
+  "status": "complete",
+  "scope": "isolated patch/test/memo preparation only",
+  "source_outcome": "UNVERIFIED",
+  "operational_status": "partial",
+  "commit": "dfa2963a10f92bd675c40d39ef5071898ece883e",
+  "checkout": "/private/tmp/yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo",
+  "patch": "/private/tmp/yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/daemon-detector.patch",
+  "memo": "/Users/macstudio3/.claude/yolo-queue/pending-approval/TK-11848-daemon-detector-yf2139.md",
+  "proof": "/private/tmp/yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/verification/e2e-proof.json",
+  "test_results": "/private/tmp/yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/results.json",
+  "passed_checks": 9,
+  "skips": [
+    "real second-daemon operational proof",
+    "installed activation/full watcher escalation"
+  ],
+  "installed_source_unchanged": true,
+  "source_sha256": "3d92f55e893a089d5a9333014d113e2b72eb61b8fdf00eff91d3b91b63bf4ae0",
+  "reverse_apply_check": "PASS in isolated candidate",
+  "guard": "ZERO_COST_REQUIRED",
+  "DTD_ZERO_COST": "1",
+  "provider_spend_usd": 0,
+  "parent_acceptance": "PENDING",
+  "next_action": "Parent independently review/replay, then Steve scoped approval; keep source ticket unresolved"
+}
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/.gitignore b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/.gitignore
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..a9ea150c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/.gitignore
@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+# Standard skill .gitignore (TK-11431). Versions CODE + meaningful state, not run artifacts.
+node_modules/
+.env
+.env.*
+__pycache__/
+*.pyc
+.DS_Store
+dist/
+build/
+.next/
+tmp/
+output/
+*.log
+*.mp4
+*.mov
+*.zip
+*.ipa
+.playwright-mcp/
+
+# data/ is runtime output and churns every run. Keep only the files that carry MEANING:
+# the heartbeat (what the rollup reads) and baselines (baseline-aware canaries' real state).
+data/*
+!data/latest.json
+!data/baseline.json
+!data/known-broken.txt
+!data/seen-state.json
+!data/manifest.json
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/dedup.py b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/dedup.py
new file mode 100755
index 00000000..50de2733
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/dedup.py
@@ -0,0 +1,294 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""
+yoloforever watchtower — FAIL-set dedup / baseline-aware escalation gate.  (TK-11792)
+
+Reads the current FAIL canary set (stdin, one name per line), diffs it against
+the PRIOR cycle's persisted state, and emits an escalation token ONLY for a
+canary that is a genuine NEW signal:
+
+  * new-fail:<c>   the canary is FAIL now and was NOT FAIL last cycle
+                   (a real state transition — recovered→fail or first-seen)
+  * worse:<c>      the canary was already FAIL and its own numeric novelty
+                   counter GREW vs last cycle (the failure got worse)
+
+A canary that is FAIL now, was FAIL last cycle, and whose novelty counter did
+NOT grow is a STEADY-STATE duplicate → suppressed (this is the bug fix: the old
+watch.sh re-escalated every such canary every 30-min cycle).
+
+known-held.txt names are never escalated (static human hold), belt-and-suspenders.
+
+The current failing set + each canary's novelty fingerprint is written back to
+state.json for the next cycle. Canaries that recovered drop out of state, so a
+later re-failure correctly counts as new.
+
+Exit is always 0; escalation tokens (space-joined) go to stdout, empty if none.
+Diagnostics go to stderr.
+
+Usage:
+  printf '%s\n' "$FAILS" | dedup.py [--state PATH] [--allow PATH] [--skills DIR] [--seed]
+
+  --seed   record the current fail-set as baseline WITHOUT emitting any tokens
+           (used at deploy time so the first real cycle is FLAT-QUIET).
+"""
+import json
+import os
+import sys
+
+HOME = os.path.expanduser("~")
+SKILL = os.path.join(HOME, ".claude", "skills", "yoloforever-watchtower")
+
+# Prioritized novelty / "newly-bad" counters a canary may expose in its
+# latest.json, matched RECURSIVELY on the LEAF key name — so a counter nested one
+# level deep (george-aged-draft `totals.new_fail`, google-merchant `shopify.leaks`)
+# or named per-canary (gmc-price-parity `novel_under`, zero-price `landmine_count`
+# / `zero_price_orderable`, gmc-feed `sample_leaks`) is found, not just top-level
+# `novel_count`. The FIRST name in this list present anywhere in the record (as a
+# non-bool number) is that canary's fingerprint; escalate-on-`>` then catches the
+# failure GETTING WORSE, not just recover->fail.
+#
+# Verified 2026-09-16 (TK-11792, Cody FIX-FIRST) against the live 17-fail fleet:
+# this resolves the real counter for approval-invisibility(new_blocking),
+# dw-active-weight(observed_zero_weight), dw-archived-live-offer(novel_count),
+# george-aged-draft(new_fail), gmc-feed-guard(sample_leaks),
+# gmc-price-parity(novel_under), google-merchant-agent(leaks),
+# zero-price-continue-guard(landmine_count), zero-price-orderable(zero_price_orderable).
+# The 8 with NO growth counter (disk / dw-active-image / dw-mdc-margin / eas /
+# homesonspec-apple-review / ken / transcript / unledgered) correctly resolve to 0
+# and rely on set-delta + the canary's own CNCP/email alert.
+#
+# The list is deliberately restricted to genuine NEW/NOVEL/leak counters — generic
+# backlog/context numbers (`under`, `disapproved`, `active_missing_mfr_sku`, `count`,
+# `population`) are EXCLUDED so an incidental catalog-churn number can't masquerade
+# as the fingerprint and re-introduce the 30-min re-spam this fix exists to kill.
+NOVELTY_FIELDS = [
+    "novel_count", "novel_under", "new_fail", "new_blocking", "new_nonblocking",
+    "escalated_count", "sample_leaks", "leaks", "landmine_count",
+    "zero_price_orderable", "serving_fail", "findings_count",
+    "observed_zero_weight", "candidates_total", "unverifiable_memos", "fail_count",
+]
+
+# leaf keys whose growth is noise, never severity — skipped by the recursive scan.
+_VOLATILE = ("ts", "time", "timestamp", "scanned", "epoch", "_ms", "duration",
+             "cost", "population", "_at", "pct", "percent", "total")
+
+
+def _collect_leaves(d, out):
+    """Recursively collect {leaf_key_lower: numeric_value} from a dict/list,
+    first-occurrence wins, skipping bools and known-volatile keys."""
+    if isinstance(d, dict):
+        for k, v in d.items():
+            kl = str(k).lower()
+            if isinstance(v, bool):
+                continue
+            if isinstance(v, (int, float)):
+                if not any(t in kl for t in _VOLATILE):
+                    out.setdefault(kl, v)
+            elif isinstance(v, (dict, list)):
+                _collect_leaves(v, out)
+    elif isinstance(d, list):
+        for v in d:
+            if isinstance(v, (dict, list)):
+                _collect_leaves(v, out)
+
+
+def fingerprint(canary, skills_dir):
+    """Numeric novelty fingerprint for a canary from its latest.json — the value of
+    the highest-priority NOVELTY_FIELDS leaf found anywhere in the record. Returns
+    0 when no known counter is present: a steady-state canary with no growth signal
+    never re-escalates once surfaced (set-delta still catches recover->fail, and the
+    canary self-alerts on its own worsening). fp=0 is the SAFE direction — for an
+    unattended paid-escalation gate a false-positive re-spam costs money every cycle,
+    while a missed growth is backstopped by the canary's own CNCP/email alert."""
+    f = os.path.join(skills_dir, canary, "data", "latest.json")
+    try:
+        with open(f) as fh:
+            d = json.load(fh)
+    except Exception:
+        return 0
+    if not isinstance(d, dict):
+        return 0
+    leaves = {}
+    _collect_leaves(d, leaves)
+    for k in NOVELTY_FIELDS:
+        if k in leaves:
+            return int(leaves[k])
+    return 0
+
+
+def load_allow(allow_path):
+    held = set()
+    try:
+        with open(allow_path) as fh:
+            for line in fh:
+                s = line.strip()
+                if s and not s.startswith("#"):
+                    held.add(s)
+    except Exception:
+        pass
+    return held
+
+
+def load_state(state_path):
+    try:
+        with open(state_path) as fh:
+            d = json.load(fh)
+        c = d.get("canaries", {})
+        return c if isinstance(c, dict) else {}
+    except Exception:
+        return {}
+
+
+def write_state(state_path, canaries, ts):
+    tmp = state_path + ".tmp"
+    os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(state_path), exist_ok=True)
+    with open(tmp, "w") as fh:
+        json.dump({"ts": ts, "canaries": canaries}, fh, indent=2, sort_keys=True)
+    os.replace(tmp, state_path)
+
+
+def decide(fails, held, prior, skills_dir, seed):
+    """Pure core: given the current FAIL names, the static hold set, the prior
+    per-canary state, and the skills dir, return (tokens, new_state). Escalate a
+    canary ONLY on a genuine transition (not in prior) or novelty growth (fp>prev).
+    Single-sourced so run_selftest() exercises the exact production path."""
+    new_state = {}
+    tokens = []
+    for c in fails:
+        fp = fingerprint(c, skills_dir)
+        new_state[c] = {"fp": fp}
+        if c in held:
+            continue  # static human hold — never escalate (record fp anyway)
+        if seed:
+            continue  # baseline-only run, emit nothing
+        pv = prior.get(c)
+        if pv is None:
+            tokens.append("new-fail:" + c)
+        else:
+            prev_fp = pv.get("fp", 0) if isinstance(pv, dict) else 0
+            if fp > prev_fp:
+                tokens.append("worse:%s(%d>%d)" % (c, fp, prev_fp))
+            # else: steady-state duplicate → suppressed
+    return tokens, new_state
+
+
+def run_selftest():
+    """Negative+positive self-test (CLAUDE.md TK-11431 amendment 3: a check ships
+    with a test proving it goes RED on an injected fault). Builds fake canaries in
+    a tempdir and asserts the escalation gate behaves. Exits 0 all-pass, 1 on any
+    failure. Guarded behind --test so the launchd job never triggers it."""
+    import tempfile
+    import shutil
+    tmp = tempfile.mkdtemp(prefix="wt-selftest-")
+    sk = os.path.join(tmp, "skills")
+    fails_out = []
+
+    def canary(name, obj):
+        d = os.path.join(sk, name, "data")
+        os.makedirs(d, exist_ok=True)
+        with open(os.path.join(d, "latest.json"), "w") as fh:
+            json.dump(obj, fh)
+
+    def check(label, cond):
+        fails_out.append((label, bool(cond)))
+        print("  %s %s" % ("PASS" if cond else "FAIL", label))
+
+    try:
+        held = {"held-canary"}
+        # top-level counter, nested counter, no-counter, held
+        canary("top", {"novel_count": 5, "ts": "a"})
+        canary("nest", {"scanned_at": "a", "totals": {"new_fail": 2}})
+        canary("bare", {"verdict": "FAIL"})
+        canary("held-canary", {"verdict": "FAIL"})
+
+        fset = ["top", "nest", "bare", "held-canary"]
+        # 1. cold start: 3 non-held escalate as new-fail, held suppressed
+        t1, s1 = decide(fset, held, {}, sk, seed=False)
+        check("cold-start: 3 new-fail, held suppressed",
+              sorted(t1) == ["new-fail:bare", "new-fail:nest", "new-fail:top"])
+        # 2. identical steady-state → EMPTY (the core bug fix)
+        t2, s2 = decide(fset, held, s1, sk, seed=False)
+        check("steady-state duplicate suppressed (empty)", t2 == [])
+        # 3. novelty growth (top 5->9) → worse:
+        canary("top", {"novel_count": 9, "ts": "b"})
+        t3, s3 = decide(fset, held, s2, sk, seed=False)
+        check("top-level growth fires worse:", t3 == ["worse:top(9>5)"])
+        # 4. nested growth (nest.totals.new_fail 2->7) → worse:
+        canary("nest", {"scanned_at": "c", "totals": {"new_fail": 7}})
+        t4, s4 = decide(fset, held, s3, sk, seed=False)
+        check("nested growth fires worse:", t4 == ["worse:nest(7>2)"])
+        # 5. timestamp-only change → EMPTY (no respam)
+        canary("top", {"novel_count": 9, "ts": "ZZZ-changed"})
+        canary("nest", {"scanned_at": "ZZZ", "totals": {"new_fail": 7}})
+        t5, s5 = decide(fset, held, s4, sk, seed=False)
+        check("timestamp-only change suppressed (no respam)", t5 == [])
+        # 6. recovery: 'bare' drops out of the fail set → not in new_state
+        t6, s6 = decide(["top", "nest", "held-canary"], held, s5, sk, seed=False)
+        check("recovered canary drops from state", "bare" not in s6 and t6 == [])
+        # 7. recovered canary re-fails → new-fail (genuine)
+        t7, s7 = decide(fset, held, s6, sk, seed=False)
+        check("recover->refail fires new-fail", t7 == ["new-fail:bare"])
+        # 8. seed mode emits nothing but records baseline
+        t8, s8 = decide(fset, held, {}, sk, seed=True)
+        check("seed emits nothing but writes baseline",
+              t8 == [] and set(s8) == set(fset))
+        # 9. missing/unparseable latest.json → fp 0, no crash
+        check("missing latest.json → fp 0", fingerprint("does-not-exist", sk) == 0)
+    finally:
+        shutil.rmtree(tmp, ignore_errors=True)
+
+    ok = all(p for _, p in fails_out)
+    print("SELFTEST: %s (%d/%d)"
+          % ("PASS" if ok else "FAIL",
+             sum(1 for _, p in fails_out if p), len(fails_out)))
+    return 0 if ok else 1
+
+
+def main():
+    args = sys.argv[1:]
+    state_path = os.path.join(SKILL, "data", "state.json")
+    allow_path = os.path.join(SKILL, "known-held.txt")
+    skills_dir = os.path.join(HOME, ".claude", "skills")
+    seed = False
+    i = 0
+    while i < len(args):
+        a = args[i]
+        if a == "--test":
+            sys.exit(run_selftest())
+        if a == "--state":
+            state_path = args[i + 1]; i += 2; continue
+        if a == "--allow":
+            allow_path = args[i + 1]; i += 2; continue
+        if a == "--skills":
+            skills_dir = args[i + 1]; i += 2; continue
+        if a == "--seed":
+            seed = True; i += 1; continue
+        i += 1
+
+    fails = []
+    for line in sys.stdin:
+        s = line.strip()
+        if s and s not in fails:
+            fails.append(s)
+
+    held = load_allow(allow_path)
+    prior = load_state(state_path)
+
+    from datetime import datetime, timezone
+    ts = datetime.now(timezone.utc).strftime("%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ")
+
+    tokens, new_state = decide(fails, held, prior, skills_dir, seed)
+    write_state(state_path, new_state, ts)
+
+    recovered = sorted(set(prior) - set(new_state))
+    sys.stderr.write(
+        "dedup: fails=%d held-suppressed=%d escalate=%d recovered=%d seed=%s\n"
+        % (len(fails), len([c for c in fails if c in held]), len(tokens),
+           len(recovered), seed))
+    if recovered:
+        sys.stderr.write("dedup: recovered=%s\n" % ",".join(recovered))
+
+    sys.stdout.write(" ".join(tokens))
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/known-held.txt b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/known-held.txt
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..a2abe41b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/known-held.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+ken-gambling-canary
+gmc-feed-guard
+disk-space-canary
+homesonspec-size-canary
+usre-prod-endpoint-canary
+dw-golive-gate-canary
+swap-pressure-canary
+vendor-edge-health-canary
+cron-fire-canary
+dw-backup-canary
+dw-hollywood-sku-canary
+google-merchant-agent
+href-drill-canary
+launchd-job-canary
+vendor-price-ingest
+ios-release-train
+blockify
+discontinued-orderable-canary
+dw-golive-gate
+dw-prefix-integrity
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/test_daemon_count.py b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/test_daemon_count.py
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..d61a821d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/test_daemon_count.py
@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Replay only the literal GOD assignment and fracture threshold; never run watch.sh."""
+import hashlib, json, os, re, subprocess, sys
+from pathlib import Path
+ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent
+OUT = Path(sys.argv[1])
+OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
+source = (ROOT / "watch.sh").read_text()
+baseline = subprocess.check_output(["git", "show", "5659b951a5da820786da84bfd2079187e5f899a8:watch.sh"], cwd=ROOT, text=True)
+assert source.startswith("#!/bin/bash\n")
+assert not re.search(r"^\s*set\s+[^\n]*(?:-[a-zA-Z]*e|errexit)", source, re.M), "shell semantics changed"
+assignment = next(line for line in source.splitlines() if line.startswith("GOD="))
+old_assignment = next(line for line in baseline.splitlines() if line.startswith("GOD="))
+threshold = next(line for line in source.splitlines() if line.startswith('[ "${GOD:-1}"'))
+assert threshold == next(line for line in baseline.splitlines() if line.startswith('[ "${GOD:-1}"'))
+assert assignment == "GOD=$(ps -axo command= | grep -cE '^PM2 v[0-9.]+: God Daemon')"
+minimal_env = {"PATH": "/usr/bin:/bin:/usr/sbin:/sbin", "LANG": "C"}
+results = []
+def run(name, detector, fixture, expected, expected_rc, alert, psargs="-axo command="):
+    env = dict(minimal_env)
+    stub = ""
+    if fixture is not None:
+        fixture_path = OUT / (name + ".fixture.txt")
+        fixture_path.write_text(fixture)
+        env["FIXTURE"] = str(fixture_path)
+        env["EXPECTED_PS_ARGS"] = psargs
+        stub = 'ps() { [ "$*" = "$EXPECTED_PS_ARGS" ] || return 97; /bin/cat "$FIXTURE"; }\n'
+    harness = stub + detector + '\nassignment_rc=$?\nNEW=""\n' + threshold + '\nprintf "%s\\n" "$GOD" "$assignment_rc" "$NEW" "continued"\n'
+    result = subprocess.run(["/bin/bash", "--noprofile", "--norc"], input=harness, env=env, text=True, capture_output=True, check=True)
+    lines = result.stdout.splitlines()
+    assert lines == [str(expected), str(expected_rc), alert, "continued"], (name, lines, result.stderr)
+    item = {"name": name, "count": int(lines[0]), "assignment_rc": int(lines[1]), "signal": lines[2], "continued": True, "verdict": "PASS"}
+    results.append(item)
+real = "PM2 v6.0.13: God Daemon (/Users/example/.pm2)\n"
+decoy = "node /safe/tk log TK-11848 peer PM2 God text\n"
+run("old_decoy_false_positive", old_assignment, "user 100 0 0 PM2 v6.0.13: God Daemon (/safe/.pm2)\nuser 200 0 0 node /safe/tk log peer PM2 God text\n", 2, 0, " pm2-god:2", "aux")
+run("zero", assignment, "launchd\n", 0, 1, "")
+run("decoy_only", assignment, decoy, 0, 1, "")
+run("one", assignment, real, 1, 0, "")
+run("one_plus_decoy", assignment, real + decoy, 1, 0, "")
+run("two", assignment, real + "PM2 v6.0.14: God Daemon (/safe/scratch)\n", 2, 0, " pm2-god:2")
+run("two_plus_decoy", assignment, real + real + decoy, 2, 0, " pm2-god:2")
+run("non_numeric_version", assignment, "PM2 vbogus: God Daemon (/safe/.pm2)\n", 0, 1, "")
+run("live_current", assignment, None, 1, 0, "")
+# Never retain full process argv, which can carry unrelated private arguments.
+commands = subprocess.check_output(["/bin/ps", "-axo", "command="], env=minimal_env, text=True)
+matches = [line for line in commands.splitlines() if re.match(r"^PM2 v[0-9.]+: God Daemon", line)]
+assert len(matches) == 1, "live daemon count changed during read-only probe"
+safe_matches = [re.match(r"^PM2 v[0-9.]+: God Daemon", line).group(0) for line in matches]
+(OUT / "live-process-summary.json").write_text(json.dumps({"command": "ps -axo command=", "matched_command_prefixes": safe_matches, "count": len(matches), "full_argv_retained": False}, indent=2) + "\n")
+(OUT / "results.json").write_text(json.dumps({"assignment": assignment, "threshold": threshold, "installed_errexit": False, "checks": results, "real_second_daemon": {"verdict": "SKIP", "reason": "Daemon lifecycle not authorized; fixtures are replay evidence only"}}, indent=2) + "\n")
+print(json.dumps({"passed": len(results), "real_second_daemon": "SKIP", "source_outcome": "UNVERIFIED"}))
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/triage-prompt.txt b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/triage-prompt.txt
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..715d6911
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/triage-prompt.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+You are the /yoloforever watchtower (TK-10986 lineage), invoked by launchd because the mechanical pre-check found a NEW signal. READ-ONLY main loop; NO fan-out unless a real incident needs an owner.
+
+Do ONE triage pass on the detected new signal(s) below:
+1. VERIFY-BEFORE-ACTING. A canary/count is a CLAIM. Reproduce it against LIVE state before treating it as real. ALWAYS check the canary's own `ts`/`generated_at` freshness first — a reading older than a recent fix is STALE, not a regression (this fooled us 3× on 2026-09-01: disk ts, draft snapshot, gmc gen). If stale/benign, log one line to ~/.claude/yolo-queue/yoloforever-ledger.jsonl and stop.
+2. If REAL and reversible + no-externality + bounded (<=500) → route to the owning cabinet officer (read ~/Projects/agent-cabinet/cabinet.yaml) to fix; ledger it to ~/.claude/yolo-queue/executed-reversible/ledger.jsonl.
+3. If REAL but gated (customer-facing / spend / prod DB / DNS / publish / send / launchd-JOB / Ken money config) → draft an APPROVE/REVISE/BLOCK memo to ~/.claude/yolo-queue/pending-approval/ and stop. NEVER fire a gated action autonomously.
+
+KNOWN-HELD — do NOT escalate these (confirmed/resolved 2026-09-01):
+- ken-gambling-canary ARMED = INTENDED LIVE (Steve confirmed); NEVER touch Ken config; only real if open_positions/kalshi_live_open>0 or safe_mode/live_run unexpectedly flips.
+- gmc-feed-guard leaks=457 = STALE pre-fix; Fentucci 504 already excluded from Google (verified). Real state = coverage-WARN.
+- Kamatera disk WARN = nightly-dump refill (memory kamatera-disk-critical-nightly-dumps); only act if free% <7% CRITICAL; structural fix is an OPEN Steve item.
+- homesonspec no-connectivity (needs HOS_SIZE_PG_URL); usre-prod DEGRADED (TK-10155 peer); Stroheim blocked Gemini $0; chargeandexplore ASC rejected; Harlequin DWHQ- (TK-10882 peer); George agentabrams token dead (Steve re-auth).
+
+GATES: NO EMAIL, spend<=$5, don't collide with peer [doing] TK-11001-11004/TK-10882/TK-10155. Keep it tight: verify, act-if-safe-and-reversible or draft-if-gated, ledger, done. Do not call ScheduleWakeup (launchd fires the next cycle).
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/verification/e2e-proof.json b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/verification/e2e-proof.json
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..dd242d2f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/verification/e2e-proof.json
@@ -0,0 +1,138 @@
+{
+  "schema_version": 1,
+  "intent": "Prepare an isolated one-line daemon detector patch and activation memo",
+  "risk_tier": "R1",
+  "environment": "Isolated local clone; read-only local ps command probes",
+  "timestamp": "2026-09-16T22:21:04.828774+00:00",
+  "build_identity": {
+    "baseline_commit": "5659b951a5da820786da84bfd2079187e5f899a8",
+    "candidate_sha256": "65a0ea8b3829d8f20e8fc5dcdee50912f1d02141d3d7958d9ef0d4671037f9fd"
+  },
+  "baseline": {
+    "installed_clean": true,
+    "installed_sha256": "3d92f55e893a089d5a9333014d113e2b72eb61b8fdf00eff91d3b91b63bf4ae0",
+    "live_daemon_count": 1,
+    "shell": "/bin/bash without errexit"
+  },
+  "commands": [
+    "python3 test_daemon_count.py /private/tmp/yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests",
+    "bash -n watch.sh",
+    "git diff --check",
+    "git diff -- watch.sh",
+    "read-only ps -axo command="
+  ],
+  "assertions": [
+    {
+      "name": "old_decoy_false_positive",
+      "count": 2,
+      "assignment_rc": 0,
+      "signal": " pm2-god:2",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "zero",
+      "count": 0,
+      "assignment_rc": 1,
+      "signal": "",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "decoy_only",
+      "count": 0,
+      "assignment_rc": 1,
+      "signal": "",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "one",
+      "count": 1,
+      "assignment_rc": 0,
+      "signal": "",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "one_plus_decoy",
+      "count": 1,
+      "assignment_rc": 0,
+      "signal": "",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "two",
+      "count": 2,
+      "assignment_rc": 0,
+      "signal": " pm2-god:2",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "two_plus_decoy",
+      "count": 2,
+      "assignment_rc": 0,
+      "signal": " pm2-god:2",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "non_numeric_version",
+      "count": 0,
+      "assignment_rc": 1,
+      "signal": "",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "live_current",
+      "count": 1,
+      "assignment_rc": 0,
+      "signal": "",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "one-line source diff",
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "installed source hash and git cleanliness preserved",
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "real second-daemon operational proof",
+      "verdict": "SKIP",
+      "reason": "Explicit daemon lifecycle approval required; parser fixtures do not substitute"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "installed activation and scheduled escalation journey",
+      "verdict": "SKIP",
+      "reason": "Activation gated; whole watch.sh could invoke prohibited Claude and mutate state"
+    }
+  ],
+  "artifacts": [
+    "/private/tmp/yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/daemon-detector.patch",
+    "/private/tmp/yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/results.json",
+    "/private/tmp/yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/live-process-summary.json"
+  ],
+  "negative_auth_retry_checks": "Decoy-only and wrong-version ignored; zero-match assignment returns 1, threshold continues under no-errexit; repeated test runner output overwrites only owned evidence",
+  "cleanup_rollback": "All temporary artifacts retained; installed source untouched. Candidate source patch reverse can be checked after a later approved activation.",
+  "preparation_verdict": "PASS",
+  "source_outcome": "UNVERIFIED",
+  "operational_completion": "partial",
+  "correlation": "yf2139-i3-execute",
+  "provider_spend_usd": 0,
+  "cost_guards": {
+    "file": "ZERO_COST_REQUIRED",
+    "env": "1"
+  },
+  "a2a": {
+    "producer": "dtd_ops",
+    "consumer": "root",
+    "parent_acceptance": "PENDING",
+    "source_ticket": "TK-11848"
+  }
+}
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/verification/parser-results.json b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/verification/parser-results.json
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..0b22d935
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/verification/parser-results.json
@@ -0,0 +1,83 @@
+{
+  "assignment": "GOD=$(ps -axo command= | grep -cE '^PM2 v[0-9.]+: God Daemon')",
+  "threshold": "[ \"${GOD:-1}\" -gt 1 ] && NEW=\"$NEW pm2-god:$GOD\"",
+  "installed_errexit": false,
+  "checks": [
+    {
+      "name": "old_decoy_false_positive",
+      "count": 2,
+      "assignment_rc": 0,
+      "signal": " pm2-god:2",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "zero",
+      "count": 0,
+      "assignment_rc": 1,
+      "signal": "",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "decoy_only",
+      "count": 0,
+      "assignment_rc": 1,
+      "signal": "",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "one",
+      "count": 1,
+      "assignment_rc": 0,
+      "signal": "",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "one_plus_decoy",
+      "count": 1,
+      "assignment_rc": 0,
+      "signal": "",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "two",
+      "count": 2,
+      "assignment_rc": 0,
+      "signal": " pm2-god:2",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "two_plus_decoy",
+      "count": 2,
+      "assignment_rc": 0,
+      "signal": " pm2-god:2",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "non_numeric_version",
+      "count": 0,
+      "assignment_rc": 1,
+      "signal": "",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "live_current",
+      "count": 1,
+      "assignment_rc": 0,
+      "signal": "",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    }
+  ],
+  "real_second_daemon": {
+    "verdict": "SKIP",
+    "reason": "Daemon lifecycle not authorized; fixtures are replay evidence only"
+  }
+}
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/watch.sh b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/watch.sh
new file mode 100755
index 00000000..8f815437
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/repo/watch.sh
@@ -0,0 +1,88 @@
+#!/bin/bash
+# yoloforever watchtower — launchd-driven, reboot-proof, cost-aware.
+# Every run: cheap MECHANICAL check ($0, no Claude). Escalates to `claude -p`
+# ONLY on a genuinely NEW signal (new FAIL not in the known-held allowlist,
+# pm2 God fracture, or Kamatera disk CRITICAL). Quiet cycles just ledger + exit.
+#
+# Install (Steve, one paste — scheduled-job install is gated):
+#   launchctl bootstrap gui/$(id -u) ~/Library/LaunchAgents/com.steve.yoloforever-watchtower.plist
+# Stop:
+#   launchctl bootout gui/$(id -u)/com.steve.yoloforever-watchtower
+
+export PATH="/opt/homebrew/bin:/usr/local/bin:/usr/bin:/bin:/usr/sbin:/sbin:$HOME/.claude/local:$HOME/.local/bin:$PATH"
+SKILL="$HOME/.claude/skills/yoloforever-watchtower"
+DATA="$SKILL/data"
+LEDGER="$HOME/.claude/yolo-queue/yoloforever-ledger.jsonl"
+STATE="$DATA/state.json"
+ALLOW="$SKILL/known-held.txt"          # skill names whose FAIL/WARN is KNOWN-HELD (do not escalate)
+ROLLUP="$HOME/.claude/skills/fleet-health-rollup/rollup.mjs"
+KEN="$HOME/.claude/skills/ken-gambling-canary/data/latest.json"
+DISK="$HOME/.claude/skills/disk-space-canary/data/latest.json"
+TRIAGE="$SKILL/triage-prompt.txt"
+TS="$(date -u +%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ)"
+
+log_ledger () { printf '%s\n' "$1" >> "$LEDGER"; }
+
+# --- 1. pm2 God daemon count (fracture guard) ---
+GOD=$(ps -axo command= | grep -cE '^PM2 v[0-9.]+: God Daemon')
+
+# --- 2. fleet-health-rollup: current FAIL skill set ---
+ROLL="$(node "$ROLLUP" 2>/dev/null)"
+FAILS="$(printf '%s\n' "$ROLL" | grep -E '❌' | grep -viE 'FLEET HEALTH' \
+        | sed -E 's/.*❌[[:space:]]*//; s/[[:space:]].*//' | sort -u)"
+HEADLINE="$(printf '%s\n' "$ROLL" | grep -E 'FLEET HEALTH' | head -1 | sed -E 's/^[[:space:]]*//')"
+
+# --- 3. Kamatera disk free% (CRITICAL guard) ---
+KDISK=$(python3 -c "import json;d=json.load(open('$DISK'));k=[u for u in d['units'] if u['unit']=='Kamatera'][0];print(k['free_pct'])" 2>/dev/null || echo 99)
+
+# --- 4. ken baseline anomaly guard (open/live>0 = anomaly; ARMED alone is INTENDED) ---
+KEN_ANOM=$(python3 -c "import json;g=json.load(open('$KEN')).get('gates',{});print(1 if (int(g.get('open_positions',0))>0 or int(g.get('kalshi_live_open',0))>0) else 0)" 2>/dev/null || echo 0)
+
+# --- decide: is there a genuinely NEW signal? ---
+touch "$ALLOW"
+NEW=""
+# a) FAIL canaries — baseline-aware (TK-11792). Escalate ONLY on a genuine state
+#    transition (a canary newly entering FAIL) or novelty growth (its own count
+#    got worse), NOT on every cycle a canary sits in a steady-state FAIL. The
+#    prior fail-set + per-canary novelty fingerprints persist in state.json;
+#    known-held.txt stays as a static belt-and-suspenders hold. dedup.py owns the
+#    state read/write. Fail-SAFE: if dedup.py errors we fall back to the old
+#    static-allowlist diff (loud+noisy) so a broken helper can never silence a
+#    real new signal.
+DEDUP="$SKILL/dedup.py"
+FAIL_TOKENS="$(printf '%s\n' "$FAILS" | python3 "$DEDUP" --state "$STATE" --allow "$ALLOW" --skills "$HOME/.claude/skills" 2>>"$DATA/dedup.log")"
+DEDUP_RC=$?
+if [ "$DEDUP_RC" -ne 0 ]; then
+  log_ledger "{\"cron\":\"launchd\",\"ts\":\"$TS\",\"mode\":\"mechanical\",\"dedup\":\"FAILED-rc-$DEDUP_RC-fallback-static-allowlist\",\"loop_status\":\"DEDUP-FALLBACK\"}"
+  while IFS= read -r f; do
+    [ -z "$f" ] && continue
+    grep -qxF "$f" "$ALLOW" || NEW="$NEW new-fail:$f"
+  done <<< "$FAILS"
+else
+  [ -n "$FAIL_TOKENS" ] && NEW="$NEW $FAIL_TOKENS"
+fi
+# b) pm2 fracture
+[ "${GOD:-1}" -gt 1 ] && NEW="$NEW pm2-god:$GOD"
+# c) Kamatera disk CRITICAL (<7%)
+[ "${KDISK:-99}" -lt 7 ] && NEW="$NEW kamatera-disk-crit:${KDISK}%"
+# d) Ken anomaly (position opened / live order) — money gate, always escalate
+[ "${KEN_ANOM:-0}" = "1" ] && NEW="$NEW ken-anomaly"
+
+if [ -z "$NEW" ]; then
+  log_ledger "{\"cron\":\"launchd\",\"ts\":\"$TS\",\"mode\":\"mechanical\",\"fleet\":\"$HEADLINE\",\"pm2\":\"$GOD God\",\"kamatera_disk_pct\":$KDISK,\"new_signals\":\"none\",\"cost_usd\":0,\"loop_status\":\"FLAT-QUIET\"}"
+  exit 0
+fi
+
+# --- NEW signal → escalate to Claude for verify-before-acting triage ---
+CLAUDE_BIN="$(command -v claude || true)"
+if [ -z "$CLAUDE_BIN" ]; then
+  log_ledger "{\"cron\":\"launchd\",\"ts\":\"$TS\",\"mode\":\"mechanical\",\"new_signals\":\"$NEW\",\"escalation\":\"FAILED-no-claude-bin\",\"loop_status\":\"NEW-SIGNAL-UNTRIAGED\"}"
+  exit 0
+fi
+log_ledger "{\"cron\":\"launchd\",\"ts\":\"$TS\",\"mode\":\"escalate\",\"fleet\":\"$HEADLINE\",\"pm2\":\"$GOD God\",\"kamatera_disk_pct\":$KDISK,\"new_signals\":\"$NEW\",\"loop_status\":\"ESCALATING-TO-CLAUDE\"}"
+PROMPT="$(cat "$TRIAGE" 2>/dev/null)
+DETECTED NEW SIGNALS THIS CYCLE:$NEW
+Fleet: $HEADLINE"
+"$CLAUDE_BIN" -p "$PROMPT" >> "$DATA/escalations.log" 2>&1
+log_ledger "{\"cron\":\"launchd\",\"ts\":\"$(date -u +%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ)\",\"mode\":\"escalate\",\"new_signals\":\"$NEW\",\"loop_status\":\"CLAUDE-TRIAGE-DONE\"}"
+exit 0
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/source-before.sha256 b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/source-before.sha256
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..33891a46
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/source-before.sha256
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+3d92f55e893a089d5a9333014d113e2b72eb61b8fdf00eff91d3b91b63bf4ae0
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/decoy_only.fixture.txt b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/decoy_only.fixture.txt
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..a4bb4eea
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/decoy_only.fixture.txt
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+node /safe/tk log TK-11848 peer PM2 God text
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/live-process-summary.json b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/live-process-summary.json
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..10bfad9e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/live-process-summary.json
@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+{
+  "command": "ps -axo command=",
+  "matched_command_prefixes": [
+    "PM2 v6.0.14: God Daemon"
+  ],
+  "count": 1,
+  "full_argv_retained": false
+}
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/non_numeric_version.fixture.txt b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/non_numeric_version.fixture.txt
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..d45f32b6
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/non_numeric_version.fixture.txt
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+PM2 vbogus: God Daemon (/safe/.pm2)
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/old_decoy_false_positive.fixture.txt b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/old_decoy_false_positive.fixture.txt
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..c215b24d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/old_decoy_false_positive.fixture.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+user 100 0 0 PM2 v6.0.13: God Daemon (/safe/.pm2)
+user 200 0 0 node /safe/tk log peer PM2 God text
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/one.fixture.txt b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/one.fixture.txt
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..6d8a85d1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/one.fixture.txt
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+PM2 v6.0.13: God Daemon (/Users/example/.pm2)
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/one_plus_decoy.fixture.txt b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/one_plus_decoy.fixture.txt
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..2e406a6b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/one_plus_decoy.fixture.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+PM2 v6.0.13: God Daemon (/Users/example/.pm2)
+node /safe/tk log TK-11848 peer PM2 God text
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/results.json b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/results.json
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..0b22d935
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/results.json
@@ -0,0 +1,83 @@
+{
+  "assignment": "GOD=$(ps -axo command= | grep -cE '^PM2 v[0-9.]+: God Daemon')",
+  "threshold": "[ \"${GOD:-1}\" -gt 1 ] && NEW=\"$NEW pm2-god:$GOD\"",
+  "installed_errexit": false,
+  "checks": [
+    {
+      "name": "old_decoy_false_positive",
+      "count": 2,
+      "assignment_rc": 0,
+      "signal": " pm2-god:2",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "zero",
+      "count": 0,
+      "assignment_rc": 1,
+      "signal": "",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "decoy_only",
+      "count": 0,
+      "assignment_rc": 1,
+      "signal": "",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "one",
+      "count": 1,
+      "assignment_rc": 0,
+      "signal": "",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "one_plus_decoy",
+      "count": 1,
+      "assignment_rc": 0,
+      "signal": "",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "two",
+      "count": 2,
+      "assignment_rc": 0,
+      "signal": " pm2-god:2",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "two_plus_decoy",
+      "count": 2,
+      "assignment_rc": 0,
+      "signal": " pm2-god:2",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "non_numeric_version",
+      "count": 0,
+      "assignment_rc": 1,
+      "signal": "",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    },
+    {
+      "name": "live_current",
+      "count": 1,
+      "assignment_rc": 0,
+      "signal": "",
+      "continued": true,
+      "verdict": "PASS"
+    }
+  ],
+  "real_second_daemon": {
+    "verdict": "SKIP",
+    "reason": "Daemon lifecycle not authorized; fixtures are replay evidence only"
+  }
+}
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/two.fixture.txt b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/two.fixture.txt
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..49de0511
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/two.fixture.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+PM2 v6.0.13: God Daemon (/Users/example/.pm2)
+PM2 v6.0.14: God Daemon (/safe/scratch)
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/two_plus_decoy.fixture.txt b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/two_plus_decoy.fixture.txt
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..ed62232f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/two_plus_decoy.fixture.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+PM2 v6.0.13: God Daemon (/Users/example/.pm2)
+PM2 v6.0.13: God Daemon (/Users/example/.pm2)
+node /safe/tk log TK-11848 peer PM2 God text
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/zero.fixture.txt b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/zero.fixture.txt
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..c93e1fb2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/tests/zero.fixture.txt
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+launchd
diff --git a/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/watch.before.sh b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/watch.before.sh
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..38a59428
--- /dev/null
+++ b/verification/yoloforever-yf2139.YF57g8/watchtower/review.uegK64/watch.before.sh
@@ -0,0 +1,88 @@
+#!/bin/bash
+# yoloforever watchtower — launchd-driven, reboot-proof, cost-aware.
+# Every run: cheap MECHANICAL check ($0, no Claude). Escalates to `claude -p`
+# ONLY on a genuinely NEW signal (new FAIL not in the known-held allowlist,
+# pm2 God fracture, or Kamatera disk CRITICAL). Quiet cycles just ledger + exit.
+#
+# Install (Steve, one paste — scheduled-job install is gated):
+#   launchctl bootstrap gui/$(id -u) ~/Library/LaunchAgents/com.steve.yoloforever-watchtower.plist
+# Stop:
+#   launchctl bootout gui/$(id -u)/com.steve.yoloforever-watchtower
+
+export PATH="/opt/homebrew/bin:/usr/local/bin:/usr/bin:/bin:/usr/sbin:/sbin:$HOME/.claude/local:$HOME/.local/bin:$PATH"
+SKILL="$HOME/.claude/skills/yoloforever-watchtower"
+DATA="$SKILL/data"
+LEDGER="$HOME/.claude/yolo-queue/yoloforever-ledger.jsonl"
+STATE="$DATA/state.json"
+ALLOW="$SKILL/known-held.txt"          # skill names whose FAIL/WARN is KNOWN-HELD (do not escalate)
+ROLLUP="$HOME/.claude/skills/fleet-health-rollup/rollup.mjs"
+KEN="$HOME/.claude/skills/ken-gambling-canary/data/latest.json"
+DISK="$HOME/.claude/skills/disk-space-canary/data/latest.json"
+TRIAGE="$SKILL/triage-prompt.txt"
+TS="$(date -u +%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ)"
+
+log_ledger () { printf '%s\n' "$1" >> "$LEDGER"; }
+
+# --- 1. pm2 God daemon count (fracture guard) ---
+GOD=$(ps aux | grep -E 'PM2.*God' | grep -v grep | wc -l | tr -d ' ')
+
+# --- 2. fleet-health-rollup: current FAIL skill set ---
+ROLL="$(node "$ROLLUP" 2>/dev/null)"
+FAILS="$(printf '%s\n' "$ROLL" | grep -E '❌' | grep -viE 'FLEET HEALTH' \
+        | sed -E 's/.*❌[[:space:]]*//; s/[[:space:]].*//' | sort -u)"
+HEADLINE="$(printf '%s\n' "$ROLL" | grep -E 'FLEET HEALTH' | head -1 | sed -E 's/^[[:space:]]*//')"
+
+# --- 3. Kamatera disk free% (CRITICAL guard) ---
+KDISK=$(python3 -c "import json;d=json.load(open('$DISK'));k=[u for u in d['units'] if u['unit']=='Kamatera'][0];print(k['free_pct'])" 2>/dev/null || echo 99)
+
+# --- 4. ken baseline anomaly guard (open/live>0 = anomaly; ARMED alone is INTENDED) ---
+KEN_ANOM=$(python3 -c "import json;g=json.load(open('$KEN')).get('gates',{});print(1 if (int(g.get('open_positions',0))>0 or int(g.get('kalshi_live_open',0))>0) else 0)" 2>/dev/null || echo 0)
+
+# --- decide: is there a genuinely NEW signal? ---
+touch "$ALLOW"
+NEW=""
+# a) FAIL canaries — baseline-aware (TK-11792). Escalate ONLY on a genuine state
+#    transition (a canary newly entering FAIL) or novelty growth (its own count
+#    got worse), NOT on every cycle a canary sits in a steady-state FAIL. The
+#    prior fail-set + per-canary novelty fingerprints persist in state.json;
+#    known-held.txt stays as a static belt-and-suspenders hold. dedup.py owns the
+#    state read/write. Fail-SAFE: if dedup.py errors we fall back to the old
+#    static-allowlist diff (loud+noisy) so a broken helper can never silence a
+#    real new signal.
+DEDUP="$SKILL/dedup.py"
+FAIL_TOKENS="$(printf '%s\n' "$FAILS" | python3 "$DEDUP" --state "$STATE" --allow "$ALLOW" --skills "$HOME/.claude/skills" 2>>"$DATA/dedup.log")"
+DEDUP_RC=$?
+if [ "$DEDUP_RC" -ne 0 ]; then
+  log_ledger "{\"cron\":\"launchd\",\"ts\":\"$TS\",\"mode\":\"mechanical\",\"dedup\":\"FAILED-rc-$DEDUP_RC-fallback-static-allowlist\",\"loop_status\":\"DEDUP-FALLBACK\"}"
+  while IFS= read -r f; do
+    [ -z "$f" ] && continue
+    grep -qxF "$f" "$ALLOW" || NEW="$NEW new-fail:$f"
+  done <<< "$FAILS"
+else
+  [ -n "$FAIL_TOKENS" ] && NEW="$NEW $FAIL_TOKENS"
+fi
+# b) pm2 fracture
+[ "${GOD:-1}" -gt 1 ] && NEW="$NEW pm2-god:$GOD"
+# c) Kamatera disk CRITICAL (<7%)
+[ "${KDISK:-99}" -lt 7 ] && NEW="$NEW kamatera-disk-crit:${KDISK}%"
+# d) Ken anomaly (position opened / live order) — money gate, always escalate
+[ "${KEN_ANOM:-0}" = "1" ] && NEW="$NEW ken-anomaly"
+
+if [ -z "$NEW" ]; then
+  log_ledger "{\"cron\":\"launchd\",\"ts\":\"$TS\",\"mode\":\"mechanical\",\"fleet\":\"$HEADLINE\",\"pm2\":\"$GOD God\",\"kamatera_disk_pct\":$KDISK,\"new_signals\":\"none\",\"cost_usd\":0,\"loop_status\":\"FLAT-QUIET\"}"
+  exit 0
+fi
+
+# --- NEW signal → escalate to Claude for verify-before-acting triage ---
+CLAUDE_BIN="$(command -v claude || true)"
+if [ -z "$CLAUDE_BIN" ]; then
+  log_ledger "{\"cron\":\"launchd\",\"ts\":\"$TS\",\"mode\":\"mechanical\",\"new_signals\":\"$NEW\",\"escalation\":\"FAILED-no-claude-bin\",\"loop_status\":\"NEW-SIGNAL-UNTRIAGED\"}"
+  exit 0
+fi
+log_ledger "{\"cron\":\"launchd\",\"ts\":\"$TS\",\"mode\":\"escalate\",\"fleet\":\"$HEADLINE\",\"pm2\":\"$GOD God\",\"kamatera_disk_pct\":$KDISK,\"new_signals\":\"$NEW\",\"loop_status\":\"ESCALATING-TO-CLAUDE\"}"
+PROMPT="$(cat "$TRIAGE" 2>/dev/null)
+DETECTED NEW SIGNALS THIS CYCLE:$NEW
+Fleet: $HEADLINE"
+"$CLAUDE_BIN" -p "$PROMPT" >> "$DATA/escalations.log" 2>&1
+log_ledger "{\"cron\":\"launchd\",\"ts\":\"$(date -u +%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ)\",\"mode\":\"escalate\",\"new_signals\":\"$NEW\",\"loop_status\":\"CLAUDE-TRIAGE-DONE\"}"
+exit 0

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